Monday, April 1, 2024

Erdogan’s aura of invincibility dented

Also: Dubai is losing its allure for Russians

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suffered an unprecedented defeat in municipal elections with the main opposition group making more inroads than ever in areas once dominated by the governing AK Party.

The setback dents Erdogan's image of invincibility just 10 months after his reelection and paves the way for his rivals, led by Istanbul's opposition Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu to take on the president or his successors in elections scheduled for 2028.

Supporters rally for Ekrem Imamoglu at Sarachane Square in Istanbul on March 31. Photographer: Yagiz Gurtug/AFP/Getty Images

Imamoglu's victory in Istanbul, where he gained control of the municipality for the first time in 2019, helped the opposition to expand its hold over cities now accounting for nearly 80% of Turkey's economy.

Social aid payments from municipal budgets are critical to voters hit by Turkey's cost-of-living crisis with inflation running at nearly 70%.
Economy woes drove the political shift that was on display in the elections. Poll results show voters turned against the ruling party in much of the country, but the change was more dramatic in urban areas.

Also Read: Lira Surges as Erdogan Gives Turkey's Economy Plan More Time

That was mainly due to persistently high inflation even after Erdogan allowed the central bank to raise the nation's key interest rate to 50%, the highest level since the ruling party first came to power in 2002. While higher borrowing costs resulted in a slump in consumer sentiment, they have yet to reverse the trajectory of price increases.

For Erdogan, the elections mark a "turning point" for the ruling party, which will now indulge in self-criticism and reassess policies.

For Imamoglu, however, it marks the beginning of a long challenge to take on the president.

Turkey needs fresh excitement and hope, the 53-year-old mayor said in his victory speech. "From tomorrow onward, Turkey will be another Turkey."

Also Read: Turkish Construction Firms Tumble After Opposition Election Win

The Slant 

The decision by the US to abstain from casting its veto has allowed the United Nations Security Council to call for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Everything suggests more censure will follow, Andreas Kluth writes for Bloomberg Opinion. 

Related Coverage 

Need to Know 

"Right thing to do": Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military is preparing to move more than a million Palestinian civilians out of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, provide them with sufficient aid and then carry out an attack on the remaining Hamas fighting battalions there.

Coalition in crisis: A dramatic Israeli Supreme Court ruling that freezes funding to ultra-Orthodox seminaries unless their students serve in the military is forcing Netanyahu's government to contend with its survival as the war in Gaza deepens the country's political divisions.

Ultra-Orthodox Jewish students study the Torah at the Ponevezh Yeshiva (Jewish Religious school) in Bnei Brak, Israel on Feb. 27, 2024. Photographer: Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images

"No-fail" mission: The US and its allies have thrown costly hardware at the Iran-backed Houthis, yet they haven't been able to stop the attacks on civilian freighters and warships. As a result, the world's biggest shipping companies are still largely avoiding a route that once carried 15% of global commerce.

Related Coverage 

Borouge's "growth opportunity": The biggest chemicals producer in the United Arab Emirates is pursuing a target in the Asia-Pacific region, even as its biggest shareholder - Adnoc - is working on a €30 billion merger of the company with a unit of Austria's OMV.

Food security: Abu Dhabi wealth fund ADQ is among potential suitors looking at a possible bid for Cedrob Group, Poland's biggest poultry and meat producer. 

Also Read: Abu Dhabi Consolidates Pharma Assets, Sets Sights on M&A 

Listing spree: Dubai is considering an initial public offering of construction firm ALEC amid a property boom that's pushed commercial and residential real estate prices close to record levels.

EFG's strategy: Egypt's biggest investment bank plans to increase headcount in Saudi Arabia by a third this year, joining other financial firms that have beefed up operations in the kingdom amid a flurry of deal-making activity.

Historic move: Saudi Arabia's government may start selling green bonds for the first time as the world's biggest oil exporter seeks to raise money for environmentally friendly projects and a transition away from fossil fuels.

"Booby-trapped": Tunisia's parliament barred a state-run Qatari fund from expanding into the cash-strapped North African country, a potential setback for efforts to revive the economy and stave off default.

Final Word 

Dubai's allure for wealthy Russians is dimming as the cost of living in the glitzy emirate surges and its banks get stricter in enforcing US sanctions.

People queue outside the Russian consulate to cast their vote in Russia's presidential election, in Dubai, on March 17. Photographer: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP/Getty Images

Russian money flows into the United Arab Emirates — which Dubai is part of - are showing signs of slowing, according to bankers, executives and investment professionals. None of them predict a widespread exodus of cash already in the UAE, yet executives say it seems to have absorbed most of the benefits of Russian money and is unlikely to see more large inflows.

Some Russian arrivals are considering moving to new jurisdictions or even returning home as an expat rush into Dubai drives up rents and daily expenses.

Unlike the US and the EU, the Gulf country doesn't have sanctions on Russia. Still, Russian entities setting up bank accounts are now more likely to face scrutiny from local banks as the UAE comes under increased US pressure to tackle potential sanctions evasion.

Traffic near the Dubai Mall, in Dubai. Photographer: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Meanwhile, even Russian firms that haven't faced banking problems have grappled with other difficulties

(Note to readers: The Mideast Briefing newsletter will not be published on April 8 on account of Eid. It will return on April 15.)

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