Wednesday, January 3, 2024

Not doomed yet

Hi, it's Priya in San Francisco. It would be a mistake to write off the world's Tech Mecca. But first...Three things you need to know today:

 It would be a mistake to write off the world's Tech Mecca. But first...

Three things you need to know today:

• The US helped block China-bound chip machinery
• Apple stock was downgraded by Barclays
• China seeks to advance research into nuclear fusion

What doom loop?

On the first day of 2024, I joined some friends on their annual tradition of walking San Francisco's Crosstown Trail, a 17-mile path through the city's parks and Victorian-lined streets. It concludes at Land's End, a vista overlooking the Pacific Ocean, the California sun filtered through cypress trees. 

As we trekked through lesser-known neighborhoods like Little Hollywood and more famous ones like the Mission District (the eastern corner of which was nick-named "Area AI" by local techies), I couldn't help but think: "What doom loop?"

One of biggest news stories of last year was San Francisco's demise. The doom loop became critics' shorthand for problems wrought by remote work and drug addiction — a cycle that drove people out of the tech capital of the world in huge numbers. 

But reality hasn't caught up with the jeremiads. In the 12 months ending July 2023, the city actually gained 4,900 residents, after also seeing some slight growth in the prior year, according to new data. Startups that focus on artificial intelligence — the hottest thing in tech — are snapping up more and more office space in San Francisco. And the Bay Area remains the largest metropolitan area in the world for startup investing by a factor of two, according to PitchBook research since 2017. 

Ted Egan, the city's chief economist, said the data prove that "there hasn't ever been a lot of evidence of a real downward spiral or doom loop in San Francisco." Instead, the narrative outpaced reality. "We had a major shock in the pandemic. The recovery has been very slow," he said. "But we are in recovery mode."

San Francisco is still facing a number of challenges. The city needs to move carefully to ensure it doesn't alienate taxpayers as it heals from the pandemic, Egan told me. It's also still grappling with drug and homelessness crises.

Yet San Francisco's appeal is obvious to anyone who comes here. Just look at rental costs, still some of the highest in the US. Tech luminaries are spending hundreds of millions hoping to help the city fight its demons. And even tourism showed signs of life last year. 

Walking the Crosstown Trail, on a sunny, 60-something-degree day, it seemed everyone was in a good mood, wishing passersby a happy new year. Despite the headlines, it's still possible to believe it will be. 

The big story

The social media company X is worth 72% less than what it was when Elon Musk bought the company formerly known as Twitter, according to a financial disclosure from Fidelity, one of X's shareholders. But at least Musk restored news headlines to the app.

One to watch

Watch the Bloomberg Technology TV analysis of tech stocks to watch in 2024.

Get fully charged

Dish completed its merger with EchoStar, reuniting a satellite empire.

The telco BT missed the UK's deadline to rip out network equipment made by China's Huawei, risking government fines.

Palantir will hold its first board meeting of the year in Tel Aviv, a show of solidarity with Israel's war against Hamas.

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