Friday, June 30, 2023

Jaded Europe

Europe is facing a difficult summer, politically and economically

Not even the deaths of hundreds of desperate refugees in the Mediterranean Sea could make European Union leaders reach agreement on migration policy.

Meeting in Brussels overnight, they tried, and again failed, to forge a united stance on how to handle people arriving from the Middle East and Africa, with the nationalist leaders of Poland and Hungary once more blocking any deal.

Key Reading:
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UK Annual House Prices Fall Most Since 2009, Nationwide Says

As the summit stretched into the early hours, riots engulfed France for a third successive night, posing a serious challenge to President Emmanuel Macron and reviving his confrontation with anti-immigration leader Marine Le Pen.

In Germany, the far-right AfD party is testing new records in the polls amid widespread disaffection with Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government. The solidarity of less than a year ago when his coalition navigated an existential crisis caused by disengaging from Russia is forgotten.

True, Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has brought about a unity of sorts, with EU capitals mostly supplying Kyiv with aid and weaponry to defend against the Russian attack.

But it's hard to escape the sense that Europe is flagging this summer, politically and economically.

President Joe Biden's industrial policy, with its billions in subsidies to encourage manufacturing in America while keeping ahead of China, is unsettling the continent even as it is compelled to respond.

US competition with Beijing is sweeping everything in its path, and Europe seems impotent by comparison: Look at chip equipment champion ASML, which has been pressured by the US into denying even more machines to China.

Spain's in limbo ahead of elections; the UK's woes would take a book to explain. Let's not even talk about Hungary's warm ties with Russia or political instability across the EU's eastern flank.

Yes, Europe has been written off countless times before.

But right now it looks awfully jaded and in need of a reboot. 

Fireworks are launched at riot police in Nanterre, France. Photographer: Aurelien Morissard/AP Photo

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Global Headlines

Chief Justice John Roberts has at times tried to blunt the US Supreme Court's conservative shift, but he firmly backed the ruling yesterday abolishing racial preferences in college admissions. "Eliminating racial discrimination means eliminating all of it," Roberts wrote in his 40-page opinion for the court. The ruling could mean fewer Black and Hispanic students at the country's top universities and force hundreds of schools to revamp their admissions policies.

  • Biden said the court's legitimacy is being called into doubt, but said he still opposes expanding the bench or other large-scale reforms.
  • The court's two Black justices sparred over the meaning and impact of race in dueling opinions on the decision.

China's economy was supposed to roar back this year after it was freed from the world's strictest Covid-19 controls, but that hasn't happened. Instead, it's facing sluggish consumer spending, a crisis-ridden property market, flagging exports, record youth unemployment and towering local government debt. And President Xi Jinping's government doesn't have great options to fix things.

  • The Netherlands published new export controls that will restrict more of ASML Holding NV's chipmaking machines from being sent to China.

Russia has tightened its hold on the world's wheat supplies following its invasion of Ukraine, bolstering its role in global food supply to secure political support and hard currency. With Russia's internal politics in disarray after an aborted armed mutiny and its international standing damaged by the war, grain remains a major source of influence.

The Russian public's support for peace talks with Ukraine has grown since Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's revolt, according to a new opinion poll from the independent Levada Center. The share of respondents backing negotiations increased by eight percentage points to 53% from a month earlier. The Kremlin says Ukraine is unwilling to negotiate, while Kyiv says it won't consider talks until Russian troops leave its territory.

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy decried the "ecocide" associated with Russia's invasion, especially this month's destruction of the Kakhovka dam.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

Call it the New New South. About 2.2 million people in the US moved to the Southeast in just over two years, helping steer about $100 billion in new income to the region in 2020 and 2021 alone. The area is now contributing more to the national economy than the Northeast, with its Washington-New York-Boston corridor. As Michael Sasso and Alexandre Tanzi write, the population shift also means more congressional seats and political power on the national scene.

Explainers You Can Use

As Brazil accelerates its transition to renewable energy, Peter Millard reports from northeastern Brazil's Serra da Babilonia, or Hills of Babylon, on how the country's green hydrogen economy is getting off the ground. Wind and solar capacity grew 260% from 2017 through 2022, and it continues to surge thanks to projects like those in Babilonia.

Tune in to Bloomberg TV's Balance of Power at 5pm to 6pm ET weekdays with Washington correspondents Annmarie Hordern and Joe Mathieu. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here.

News to Note

  • Climate Minister Zac Goldsmith quit Rishi Sunak's UK government today with an excoriating broadside against the prime minister's environmental credentials.
  • China dispatched a senior diplomat to Italy this week, as Beijing seeks to persuade the European nation not to leave Xi's flagship Belt and Road project.
  • A man who took part in the Jan. 6 attack on the US Capitol was arrested last night in the Washington neighborhood where former President Barack Obama lives, according to NBC News.
  • The Biden administration's top negotiator with Iran said his US security clearance is under review and he'll remain on leave until the investigation is complete.
  • Pakistan clinched initial approval from the International Monetary Fund for a $3 billion loan program, lowering the risk of a sovereign default.

Pop quiz (no cheating!) Which country's citizens became a year younger this week when it joined international standards by no longer counting newborns as one year old? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net.

And finally ... The EU's new rules that ensure commodities including cocoa, coffee and palm oil aren't grown on deforested land are earning support from big chocolate companies, though consumers may have to pay more. Firms like Lindt & Spruengli, Ferrero and Unilever say they back the move because it looks after the environment and those who grow the crops.

A worker cuts down cocoa pods on a farm in Azaguie, Ivory Coast, on Nov. 18, 2022. Photographer: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Bloomberg

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