Monday, May 29, 2023

Brussels Edition: Spain's political chaos upends EU plans

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Spanish Prime Minister P

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called a surprise snap election for July 23 after local elections had the conservative People's Party set to take charge of eight of the 12 regions that were up for grabs in a weekend ballot. He's betting he can exploit quirks in the fractured political landscape to cling to power, but the chaos couldn't come at a worse time for the EU. Spain is supposed to take the reins of the rotating presidency on July 1, and the difficult job will be even trickier when coupled with a campaign and the possible formation of a new government. Now, Spain will be distracted for at least the first month of its EU mandate as candidates focus on winning over voters. And if Sanchez were to lose, that could mean additional time lost to the transition.

Jillian Deutsch and Richard Bravo

What's Happening

Freezing vs. Seizing | The US and its allies froze an estimated $300 billion in Russian central bank assets soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. Sanctions imposed on Russian individuals have frozen additional assets, including homes, yachts and private aircraft that are estimated at $58 billion. Meanwhile, very little has been seized. Here's why freezing assets isn't enough, but seizing them is so hard. 

AI Rules | Days after indicating an exit from Europe due to EU regulations, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said he plans to abide by the bloc's rules. In discussions with regulators, OpenAI wants "to make sure it is able to comply," he said in Paris. Altman didn't stop in Brussels on his European tour.  

Twitter Trouble | Twitter pulled out of the EU's Code on Disinformation — the latest sign that Elon Musk's takeover of the social media site could put it on a collision course with the bloc's regulators. "It would be good for them to realize they should accept our rules of the game if they want to operate on the European market," Commission Vice President Vera Jourova told us. 

Interest Rates | ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the continent's services sector will help fuel economic growth — even as Germany endures a recession. Meanwhile, Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said the ECB is getting nearer to the point where it can stop raising borrowing costs, but it has some way to go yet as it seeks to bring inflation under control.

Green Transition | Leaders and companies in Europe's biggest markets are increasingly balking at the ambitious pace of the EU's green targets as they confront the massive costs associated with economic transformation. The climate-neutral push has coincided with emergency measures to mitigate an energy crisis and increasing competition from the US and China. Read more about the issue here

Around Europe

Polish Inquiry | Poland's ruling party pushed through legislation to set up an inquiry panel that could target opposition leader Donald Tusk, kicking off a charged political fight five months before a tightly contested election. The investigative committee — approved in a parliamentary vote late last week — would aim to probe Russia's influence in Poland between 2007 and 2022. 

First Female | The Netherlands' first female finance minister is reconsidering her political future over continued threats from conspiracy theorists and right-wing extremists. Earlier this year, Sigrid Kaag was confronted by an angry mob carrying torches during a work visit. A man with a flaming torch was arrested outside her house last year.

Property Crisis | SBB, the embattled company at the center of Sweden's property crisis, is considering breaking itself up after its shares collapsed amid mounting concerns around the firm's $8 billion debt pile. A sale of the company would mark a major reversal of fortunes for SBB's CEO who in seven years built up a $13 billion portfolio across the Nordic region.

Kosovo Clash | NATO-led peacekeepers beefed up their presence in northern Kosovo, where local Serb protesters clashed with police and the international force days after an uptick in violence. The clashes have raised fears that a conflict could reignite between the Balkan neighbors. The flareup imperils an EU-brokered, US-supported plan for the Balkan neighbors to normalize relations. 

Turkish Cabinet | All eyes are on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's new cabinet, which could be announced as soon as Friday. Erdogan has promised a team with "international credibility" to manage the nation's finances. Given his influence over everything from interest rates to infrastructure, how much credibility remains unclear is as the economy deteriorates.

Chart of the Day

European gas prices have plunged to the lowest since mid-2021, when Russia was just beginning to squeeze supplies before its invasion of Ukraine, helping to reverse a surge in inflation and bring relief to consumers. The slump — gas futures are down by two-thirds already this year – hasn't just eased the pressure on household budgets. It also undermines one of the biggest bargaining chips held by President Vladimir Putin — the ability to squeeze the region's gas supplies.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 10:45 a.m. Council President Charles Michel meets with Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum
  • 11:30 a.m. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola visits Bratislava 
  • 6 p.m. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg holds press conference in Oslo with the prime minister of Norway
  • 6:45 p.m. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken gives press conference during EU-US Trade and Technology Council in Lulea, Sweden
  • Meetings of European affairs ministers, agriculture ministers in Brussels 

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