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Good morning. A snap election in Spain, Biden whips votes for the debt-ceiling deal and Jamie Dimon returns to China. Here's what people are talking about.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is betting that he can exploit the quirks of Spain's fractured political landscape to cling on to power after his Socialist party suffered a crushing defeat in Sunday's regional elections. Sanchez, 51, surprised his adversaries on Monday by dissolving parliament and triggering a snap general election within hours of learning the full extent of his losses in the previous day's ballots. Spanish parties will have less than two months to prepare and campaign for the July 23 election, which had been expected to be held in December.

The White House and Republican congressional leaders geared up lobbying campaigns to win approval of a deal to avert a US default as environmentalists, defense hawks and conservative hard-liners condemned concessions. President Joe Biden is personally calling lawmakers to support this bill, while cabinet members and senior White House staff already had called at least 60 House Democrats by early Monday morning, a Democratic official said. Both Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy expressed confidence they would muster the necessary votes. "I never say I'm confident about what the Congress is going to do, but I feel very good about it," Biden said. "It feels good. We'll see when the vote starts."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has promised a team with " international credibility" to manage the nation's finances. Given his influence over everything from interest rates to infrastructure, how much credibility is unclear as market pressure builds. A new cabinet is expected to be named at the end of the week after Turkey's longest-serving leader extended his rule by another five years. The most significant potential appointment would be Mehmet Simsek, a former finance minister who advisers to Erdogan have been courting to oversee economic policy, people close to the matter said. The lira extended its slump toward record lows against the dollar after Erdogan prevailed in a runoff vote on Sunday to complete a triumph that opinion polls hadn't predicted a few weeks ago.

When Jamie Dimon takes center stage at JPMorgan's China summit Wednesday, he'll be confronting a business landscape that looks vastly different from his visit four years ago. Back in 2019, the last time the flagship event was held in person, the US bank and its Wall Street peers were gearing up to cash in on China's long-awaited opening of its $60 trillion financial sector. This year, the conference is being held against the backdrop of a US-China relationship that's at its worst in decades. A sluggish Chinese economy and Beijing's increased crackdowns on foreign businesses is forcing global banks to rethink their ambitions in the country, with revised profit goals and job cuts. The Wall Street bank will try to put on a good face despite the tensions. The conference opens with a talk titled "We are Back!"

European equity futures inched higher as investors await next steps on the US debt deal. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks. The EU-US Trade and Technology Council meets in Sweden with chip production under discussion. Expected data include retail sales out of Finland, Denmark, Spain and Portugal, as well as Swedish, Swiss and Maltese GDP, and Spanish inflation. Lundbergforetagen, Motor Oil Hellas and Aroundtown are on tap for earnings.

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This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours

Treasury bills climb as traders bet Congress will pass debt deal.
Inflation in UK shops hits record with little sign of relief.
Russia hits Ukraine air base, Kyiv downs ballistic missiles.
Labour studies land reforms to cut cost of UK house-building.
Swedish landlord SBB weighs breakup after property slump.
Winklevoss twins try to pivot after Gemini loses money, staff.
Taiwan rushes to prevent China from cutting off internet, phones.

German bund futures enjoyed a low volume short squeeze on Monday, but the narrowing price range may prevail until mid-June when a downside break is likely.

That's when decisions from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank follow one another in quick succession.

Bond bulls will try clinging to the view that inflation is projected to come down later this year and that will be enough for central bankers to give dovish forward guidance. Even so that messaging will likely require a reinforcement of the need for high short-term interest rates for longer.

The ECB may be close the point where it can stop raising borrowing costs, but it has some way to go yet as it seeks to bring inflation under control, according to Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos.

Given the German yield curve remains inverted, any delayed loosening of monetary policy could trigger selling of long-term bonds as a shift toward curve normalization takes place.

That would imply the resolution of a tight trading range for bund futures is breaking out to the downside in the weeks ahead.