Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Supply Lines: Mexico’s export boom

Shipments of boats, vehicles and computer parts are leading Mexico's export boom, showing growing US demand for industrial products from its

Shipments of boats, vehicles and computer parts are leading Mexico's export boom, showing growing US demand for industrial products from its southern neighbor.

The export of boats produced in Mexico increased 266% in September compared with a year ago, the fastest-growing item among Mexican exports worth above $100 million, according to recent central bank data. (Click here for the full story.)

Most of those were motorboats, but that's not all Americans were buying. Train wagon sales jumped 174% in annual terms, vehicles and car parts 44% and malt beer 27%.

Mexico's trade bonanza come at a time the government is considering ways to attract investments to supply more goods to Americans with companies that otherwise would settle in Asian markets, a trend known as near-shoring. Exports in September hit a record $52.3 billion. More than 80% of Mexico's exports go to the US, the country's main trading partner.

On Monday, the latest data showed that Mexico's shipments abroad were a more muted $49.3 billion in October, after September's all-time high.

But that was still 17.7% higher than a year earlier, leading some economists to revise their estimates of end-of-year growth. And in the near future, exports could rise by 38%, if Mexico takes advantage of nearshoring, according to Barclays.

Read More on Mexico:

Maya Averbuch in Mexico City

Charted Territory

Picking Your Friends | The UN said efforts to "friend-shore" manufacturing could weigh on a global trading system that a new report warns still faces transport headwinds and inflationary pressures tied to Russia's war and the pandemic. "The trade system is a very complex system," said Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, in a briefing with reporters. "If you try to get away from one part of the world, you create a huge disruption to the system. Everything changes." Unctad projects that growth in total seaborne trade will be 1.4% in 2023, unchanged from this year's level, before averaging just above 2% in each year after that through 2027. That's below the historical average in recent decades of about 3.3% annual growth. (Full story here.)

Today's Must Reads

  • Rail intervention | President Joe Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi are moving to prevent a looming shutdown of the nation's freight railroads with the House preparing to take up legislation this week to impose a settlement over the objections of some unions.
  • Stuck in neutral | China's stringent Covid Zero regime is once again upending the nation's car manufacturing sector with at least three major automakers shuttering production because of virus restrictions.
  • Supply shocks | Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said US central bankers must lean against the risk of inflation expectations rising above the 2% target in a world where inflation may be less stable than in recent decades.
  • Restart your engines | South Korea ordered striking cement truck drivers back to work in a dramatic step it said was necessary because of the threat to the nation's economy.
  • Another gear | US trucking is entering a tumultuous period that will likely reshape the $875 billion industry, as freight brokers shift to online platforms to lower costs, and Uber Freight and Convoy battle legacy firms for market share.
  • Dealing with shortages | Toyota produced 771,382 vehicles in October, down from a record of 887,733 the previous month, and warned of an uncertain outlook due to Covid and semiconductor shortages.
  • Coal shortage | India's paper, cement, steel and aluminum producers are still struggling with a lack of coal needed to power their plants despite government assurances there's no shortage.
  • Mercosur movement | The European Union's executive arm is set to propose a series of environmental and climate commitments in a bid to ease approval of a landmark trade deal with four South American nations.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Weaker growth| Global trade growth is likely to slow heading into 2023 as slumping exports and cooling business sentiment weigh on the outlook for cross-border commerce, the World Trade Organization said. 
  • Searching for the bottom | Maersk said it's seeing signs that a sharp decline in demand for shipping containers is starting to moderate.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • For FreightWaves content, click HERE. 
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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