Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Brussels Edition: Hungary's challenge

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.The European Commission

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The European Commission will today propose 27 "supermilestones" 
that Hungary needs to reach to access its 5.8 billion euros of recovery money — as well as to unfreeze as much as 7.5 billion euros of regular EU funds that could be suspended this month by national governments over rule-of-law concerns. The conditions include the full transposition of anti-corruption measures previously demanded by Brussels, where some progress has been made, we're told. The Commission will also propose some goals to enhance the independence of the judiciary and to guarantee the effective audit and control of the funds. Member states will have to confirm the Commission's proposal in December, while they wait for the government in Budapest to lift its veto on a new financial package for Ukraine and the minimum tax proposal.

Jorge Valero

What's Happening

Transatlantic Tension | President Joe Biden will host Emmanuel Macron for the first White House state dinner in more than three years tomorrow, and the French president is showing up in Washington with a number of grievances. His government is unhappy with a new US climate law that Europe says unfairly subsidizes North American electric-vehicle production, and is still upset about a US and UK deal with Australia to build nuclear submarines that scuppered French plans to supply the vessels.

Big Plastic | The EU will lay out measures today to combat its growing packaging waste problem — and it's something that could have a far-reaching impact into our everyday lives, whether you use coffee pods to wake up in the morning or simply bin your beer bottles at the end of the day. Watch out too for the EU's first step in attempting to certify carbon removals, whether it's via forests or innovative technology.

Workers Welcome | Germany's cabinet will today approve measures to allow citizens of countries outside the EU who've signed a contract with a domestic employer to start work immediately and have their qualifications recognized later, according to the draft plan we've seen. The German government says it will be "the most liberal immigration law in Europe" and will also make it easier for younger immigrants to take up vocational training or study in the country.

Leaving London | Goldman Sachs is shifting some of its trading desk to Milan from London, as the bank relocates staff to bolster European offices in the wake of Brexit, we're told. Staff will likely move early next year and Goldman will hire staff locally. Some of the world's biggest lenders are under pressure to move more traders from London into EU cities.

What If?EU diplomats are still haggling over the price at which to cap Russian crude exports, and the expectation is that they will find a number they can agree on. But with sanctions due to start on Monday, there's increasing urgency to get the deal done. And it raises the question: what if they can't agree in time? Find out what that would mean here.

In Case You Missed It

More Money | The chair of the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs committee, Irene Tinagli, told us that the bloc's proposed resources to address the energy crisis  "won't be enough." The Italian lawmaker also said that the EU should step up the monitoring of crypto assets to prevent a situation where a collapse like the recent case of FTX can pose a systemic risk.

Attacking Russia | Ukraine should be free to strike military sites inside Russia as it fends off attacks on its critical infrastructure and allies "should not fear" escalation, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics told us. While the US hasn't imposed restrictions on how Ukraine uses weapons, it has so far declined to send arms with sufficient range to strike inside Russia.

Ankara's Demands | Sweden and Finland still have to make progress on some issues to win Turkey's approval to join NATO, Ankara's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told us. Following the memorandum signed by the three countries to overcome Turkey's objections, the Turkish government wants Sweden to put an end to propaganda activities by supporters of separatist Kurdish militants.

Slower Pace | Germany followed Spain and Belgium in reporting slower inflation, offering ammunition to those who want the European Central Bank to ease the pace of interest-rate increases. Prices in Europe's largest economy rose by 11.3% from a year earlier in November, down from October's 11.6% jump. Economists are also estimating a slight moderation in euro-area inflation data due today.

Too Dependent | The EU and UK received almost half their waterborne imports of diesel-type fuel from Russia during the first 24 days of this month, with fewer than 10 weeks to go until sanctions all but block the trade. According to data we compiled, the level of reliance jumped sharply from October, when imports surged to cope with strikes in France. Russia is still by far the bloc's single biggest external supplier.

Chart of the Day

Europe's massive tab to address the consequences of the energy crisis soared past €700 billion this month, according to the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. That's an increase of €50 billion from last month's calculation. Measures in the UK and Norway add €105 billion to that total. As the spend is almost equivalent to the EU's landmark post-pandemic recovery fund program, Bruegel called for the EU to set up an energy crisis fund to help combat the current crisis.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 9:40 a.m. Vice President Valdis Dombrovksis speaks at Aspen-GMF Bucharest Forum
  • 11:45 a.m. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola holds news conference
  • 12:45 p.m. News conference by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg after foreign ministers meeting in Bucharest
  • 4:45 p.m. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store joint news conference after talks in Berlin
  • 5:30 p.m. Scholz, Store speak at Berlin Security Conference 

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