Crypto News: RBA set for close call

Good morning, it's Ainsley here with a roundup of the top news to kick off RBA decision day.

Today's must-reads:

RBA set for another close call
Breaking China's grip on rare-earths a 'pipe dream'
Australia's housing downturn persists

What's a central bank to do? The RBA faces a tough task in deciding whether to persist with smaller interest-rate increases or U-turning back to outsized hikes to try to gain control of hotter-than-expected inflation. Consensus is for the Reserve Bank to deliver a second straight quarter percentage-point rise today. But there are still some high-profile dissenters and doubters.

Getting a grip. Australia's resources minister said it was a " pipe dream" that Western countries could soon end their reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals. "That's a country that has seen this need coming and made the most of it," Resources Minister Madeleine King told Bloomberg News. That won't stop Australia and the US from working together to boost investment in these critical minerals in an attempt to break China's monopoly on international supply chains, King said.

Housing downturn persists. Australia's housing downturn extended into October, with prices in every major city declining in response to rising interest rates and expectations of further policy tightening ahead. Home prices in Sydney, the bellwether market, slid 1.3% for a ninth straight monthly fall, CoreLogic said. Melbourne dropped 0.8% while Brisbane decreased 2%.

Amoxicillin shortage. Amoxicillin, an antibiotic commonly used to treat conditions like ear infections and strep throat in children, is in shortage in the US, the Food and Drug Administration said. Authorities in Australia and Canada are also reporting shortages of the medicine.

US stocks declined, paring their monthly surge as bonds dropped ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. The S&P 500 closed down 0.75%, trimming October's advance to 8%. Treasury yields rose across the curve, with 10-year notes up to around 4.05%, while the dollar climbed against every G-10 partner save the kiwi. Oil and gold both retreated. Asian equity futures are in the green, while S&P/ASX 200 Index futures are little changed.

End of the cycle? JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is joining strategists who believe the most aggressive rate hikes in decades are nearing an end. A shift in tone from the ECB plus slower increases in Canada and Australia boost optimism the global cycle could end by early-2023. Still, policymakers will stay alert on inflation, he said. Meantime, JPMorgan's trading desk said the S&P 500 could surge at least 10% in one day if the Fed turns more dovish on Wednesday.

Jair Bolsonaro's silence is deafening. Nearly 24 hours after his defeat in Brazil's runoff election, the president has yet to be seen or heard from, leaving voters guessing on whether he'll concede to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The country's assets rebounded, buoyed by stocks expected to benefit from Lula's victory, though a plunge in Petrobras erased almost $4 billion in value. The real also reversed course and posted the biggest gain among global currencies.

Windfall tax. Joe Biden vowed to impose higher taxes on petroleum companies that post record profits without reinvesting in domestic production. "The oil industry has not met its commitment to invest in America," the president said, calling the profits "a windfall of war."

All times Sydney

09:00: S&P Global Oct. Australia Manufacturing PMI
14:30: RBA decision
19:20: RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaks in Hobart

An artist rendering of ispace's Mission 2 lander on the lunar surface Source: ispace Inc.

This Japanese startup wants to become the moon's very own FedEx. An intensifying US-China space rivalry and Elon Musk's ambitious Mars program have inspired scores of startups to get in on the action. Among them is ispace, a Tokyo-based outfit that plans to send a lunar lander carrying multiple government and commercial payloads as early as Nov. 22. Oh, it also wants to build a human settlement on the moon by 2040.