The latest moves in crypto markets, in context Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here. |
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Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. I'm Lyllah Ledesma, here to take you through the latest in crypto markets, news and insights. - Price Point: September has been a historically bad month for bitcoin, which posted losses for the last five years. Is October's record better?
- Market Moves: Bitcoin's bullish seasonality might be muddled by the continued slide in the USD Liquidity Index.
- Chart of the Day: Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase's stock (COIN) debuted on Nasdaq in April 2021. Since then, the share price has been in a steady downtrend.
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Bitcoin (BTC) was trading flat on the day after a choppy week of price movement. The world's largest cryptocurrency by market value has traded in a range of $18,500-$20,380 over the week. After a painful week for both equities and government bonds, both markets posted modest gains. Historically, September has been a bad month for bitcoin, with the crypto showing negative returns in each of the last five years. The string continued in 2022, with bitcoin lower by 2.95% for the month at press time. October, however, has a better historical record, with bitcoin posting gains in seven of the last nine years. |
(Bitcoin monthly returns via Crypto Finance AG) |
Ethereum (ETH) was also trading flat on Friday at around $1,337 and has lost 13% over the month. Managing gains in September were the token of decentralized oracle network Chainlink (CHAIN), which advanced 17%, and Uniswap's UNI which was up 6%. "For Chainlink, the narrative that's driving price performance is the partnership with SWIFT on a cross-chain interoperability protocol," said Nauman Sheikh, Head of Treasury Management and Derivatives at Wave Financial, in an interview with CoinDesk. "For UNI, it's the continued growth in market share and volume along with being regarded as a long-term deep value play," said Sheikh. Caution is warranted, though, suggested Sheikh. "Given the macro environment, we can expect these outperforming tokens to quickly succumb to profit-taking, especially if bitcoin and ethereum begin to sell off more aggressively," he said. CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole reported XRP and MKR, (the governance token of the peer-to-peer lending platform Maker), are rallying in an otherwise quiet crypto sector as markets await the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of U.S. inflation: the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE). In other news, Spain's largest telecom company Telefónica invested in local crypto exchange Bit2Me and will begin accepting crypto for payments. Meanwhile, a study by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision finds the world's largest banks are exposed to about 9.4 billion euros ($9 billion) of crypto assets. |
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Bitcoin's Bullish Seasonality Muddled by Continued Slide in 'USD Liquidity Index' |
October has been a good month for bitcoin (BTC) and traders may be looking forward to capitalizing on the bullish seasonality, having seen the cryptocurrency hold steady through recent traditional market turmoil. Bitcoin has put in a positive performance in October in eight out of the past 12 years, with an average return of around 30% according to historical data sourced from charting platform TradingView. In other words, October has generated positive returns 66% of the time. However, one indicator tracking the U.S. dollar liquidity calls for caution on the part of the bulls. The so-called USD Liquidity Condition Index has slipped to a 19-month low of $5.7 trillion, according to chart provided by TradingView. "The Fed net [dollar] liquidity is falling off a cliff, a clear headwind for crypto asset prices," Lewis Harland, a researcher at Decentral Park Capital, said in a daily market update. The index assesses the degree of dollar liquidity based on the interaction of three factors – the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, the Treasury General Account (TGA) and the reverse repo balance held at the New York Fed. The liquidity declines when the Fed's balance sheet contracts, the TGA and repo balances rise. On the contrary, an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and a decline in the TGA and repo balances indicates an uptick in the dollar liquidity. Read the full story here. |
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From crypto autodidacts to student blockchain clubs and even university PhD programs, we're witnessing a sea change as the emerging technology of blockchain becomes more popular and the masses seek to understand, program, operate and use it. Follow us all week as we track the changing education opportunities in blockchain, crypto and Web3. Crypto Goes to College As traditional financial firms expand into crypto, recruiters will seek traditional hiring credentials, creating a sea change at universities and the crypto job market overall. On Starting A Crypto Career In The Dead Of Winter An argument for taking the long view and studying blockchain or related technology now, even when prospects seem scary. |
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Biggest Gainers Biggest Losers |
Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive, and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk Market Index is a broad-market index of digital assets, weighted by market capitalization. A full description of the methodology is here. | |
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COIN's recent consolidation has taken the shape of a bearish price pattern. (TradingView) |
- Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase's stock (COIN) debuted on Nasdaq in April 2021. Since then, the share price has been in a steady downtrend.
- Recently, a bear flag has emerged on COIN's daily price chart, hinting at a potential move lower.
- "We remain cautious of the bear flag in COIN," Rob Ginsberg, senior analyst at Wolfe Research, said in a technical analysis note to clients. "A breakdown through channel support seems more than likely."
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Check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and Lawrence Lewitinn at 9 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. - Edward Moya, Senior Analyst at OANDA
Adam Zarazinski, CEO at Inca Digital Jelena Djuric, Ecosystem Lead at Cosmos Research
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The Investing in Digital Enterprises and Assets Summit reveals the most scalable and fastest-growing market opportunities in blockchain, digital assets, Web3 and the metaverse for traditional asset managers and institutional investors. Learn directly from the founders and developers pioneering breakthrough innovations that will drive large-scale adoption. Use code FM_20 for 20% off the General Pass. Register now. |
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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