Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Approaching the limits

The measures will halt more than 2/3 of Russian crude bought by the EU.

After weeks of deadlock, European Union leaders finally agreed to shut off the flow of most of the oil they buy from Russia.

It may be about as far as they can go to punish Moscow for attacking Ukraine.

While the technical details must still be hashed out, the deal forbids the purchase of crude and oil products Russia delivers to EU states by sea.

Key reading:

The measures will halt more than two-thirds of crude bought by the EU, while additional pledges by Germany and Poland to stop purchasing pipeline oil will bring the total to about 90%. It's the headline achievement of a sixth sanctions package that also targets additional Russian banks.

As with most EU decisions, it was a compromise among the bloc's 27 states. It only succeeded after Viktor Orban chiseled out an exemption for Hungary, while others also got some leeway.

It aims to hit President Vladimir Putin's ability to fund the war, forcing the Kremlin to sell fuel elsewhere — and at a discount.

But it will also hurt EU nations.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo signaled it was "the provisional end point" of what he could agree to in the energy sphere. That suggests a bloc-wide agreement to halt natural-gas imports remains far off.

In the US, President Joe Biden appeared to reach a limit to the military assistance he is prepared to provide Ukraine, ruling out sending long-range rocket systems that could strike targets in Russia.

No doubt, while hard to achieve, the EU agreement is significant. But it's far from a knockout blow.

The immediate effect was to send oil prices higher, meaning every barrel the Kremlin sells brings more to its war chest. 

A drilling rig on a oil, gas and condensate field in the Lensk district of the Sakha Republic, Russia. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg

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Global Headlines

Limited power | Following a visit to the Texas elementary school where a gunman last week killed 19 children and two teachers, Biden said there are limits to what he can do as demands increase for a crackdown on assault weapons. "I can't dictate this stuff," he told reporters yesterday, calling on Congress to take action.

  • China urged the United Nations human rights chief to investigate mass shootings in the US, in an apparent effort to shift the focus from allegations of abuses in its Xinjiang region.

Mocking Biden | Foreign Minister Wang Yi criticized Biden's proposed Indo-Pacific economic framework for not lowering tariffs or including China, in some of the strongest criticism yet of the US plan to counter Beijing's influence in Asia. His comments came as China failed this week to get 10 Pacific Island nations on board with a sweeping trade and security deal.

Perilous times | UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says it's time to move on from the "partygate" scandal, but there are at least 26 Conservative members of Parliament who publicly called for his resignation. Kitty Donaldson outlines five key dangers that suggest he may not find it so easy to consign his troubles to the past.

Best of Bloomberg Opinion

Twin impacts | The Egyptian port of Damietta, near where the Nile flows into the Mediterranean, highlights the fallout of Russia's war on the Arab world's most populous nation. Read this report on how growing energy exports but a dependence on imported foods are prompting international concern over a regional power seen as too big to fail.

Explainers you can use

Flagging support | President Jair Bolsonaro, seeing his popularity drop in Brazil's impoverished northeast ahead of October elections, visited the region yesterday after heavy rains killed more than 90 people and left 5,000 homeless. The show of support in Recife contrasts with a decision to not interrupt a beach vacation to visit the northeastern state of Bahia late last year, when a downpour also left several dead and many cities underwater.

Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with David Westin weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online here or check out prior episodes and guest clips here.

News to Note

  • Monitors reported Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium jumped and that the Islamic Republic continues to lay the groundwork for a major expansion of its capacity to produce nuclear fuel, as talks about reviving the atomic deal with world powers stalled.
  • Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor Party is set to clinch a parliamentary majority more than a week after the federal election, following days of counting votes in tightly contested seats.
  • Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's plans for what he calls a "new form of capitalism" aimed at reducing Japan's social disparities without hampering growth are likely to become clearer as early as today with the release of a key panel's main proposals.
  • A Taiwanese air force trainer jet crashed hours after scores of Chinese warplanes flew close to the island, highlighting concerns about Taipei's aging military fleet as Beijing intensifies pressure on the island.
  • Six million Somalians, more than a third of its population, have been hit by severe drought conditions that threaten lives and farming activity.

And finally ... With a program to raise taxes and phase out the oil and gas industries, Gustavo Petro went into Colombia's presidential election portraying himself as the candidate of change. Having won Sunday's first round, the former guerrilla and Bogota mayor now finds the tables are turned as he faces a true outsider in Rodolfo Hernandez, a businessman with a short fuse and populist tendencies — though few known policies. As we write here, the runoff is both a testament to a volatile electorate willing to throw the dice and a recipe for uncertainty.

A campaign poster of Hernandez during an election night rally. Photographer: Natalia Ortiz Mantilla/Bloomberg

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