Sunday, December 1, 2024

Bw Reads: Why flying feels so much worse

From 32 rules for flying right now

Welcome to Bw Reads, our weekend newsletter featuring one great magazine story from Bloomberg Businessweek. Today is one of the busiest flying days of the year, which means you might be reading this while squished in the middle seat, drinking a thimbleful of ginger ale while hoping the Wi-Fi holds up. Or maybe you've paid extra to avoid all that. Amanda Mull recently wrote about why the front of the plane is now a haven of luxury, while coach has turned into a low-cost shakedown. You can find the whole story online here.

If you like what you see, tell your friends! Sign up here.

Nothing is more valuable on a plane than space. There are mathematical reasons for that, but if you've ever spent hours stuck in a middle seat or had the person in front of you demolish your knees while shooting backward into nap mode, you also just know it in your heart. Every inch of cabin space is carefully meted out; there's no wiggle room, literally. And some of the ever-dwindling inches between you and those in adjacent seats have been sold twice. Who gets to use the armrest depends on who's most game to make enemies.

Knowing all of this, maybe it's not surprising that a substantial number of people say they'd be willing to buy into a more pleasant setup. But even the airlines have been surprised by exactly how eager Americans are to pay for more comfort. Before the pandemic, the biggest US carriers spent more than a decade experimenting modestly with fare offerings beyond first class and coach—say, a few rows with extra legroom and better snacks. But premium seats have never been top sellers. Delta Air Lines Inc., for example, sold only 14% of its first-class fares for cash in 2011. Across the industry, that grew steadily leading up to 2020, but most of the best seats still weren't bought, only exchanged for miles or given as upgrades to road warriors with airline clout.

When leisure travel began to tick back up after the pandemic, Americans were no longer crossing their fingers to get a better seat for free. By 2023, Delta was selling 74% of its first-class seats for cash, a jump that reflected trends throughout the market. According to industry research firm CAPA-Centre for Aviation, North American premium fare volume in the last quarter of 2023 was up more than 36% over the same period in 2019 on the busiest routes, even as overall volume was stagnant.

That growth can't go on forever, but it's been enough that carriers are rushing to add new types of cabins or more rows of upgraded seats across their fleets. United Airlines Holdings Inc., for example, is expanding premium inventory by 75% per flight as part of a program announced in 2021. In October, Delta said its entire fleet would get "nose-to-tail" cabin redesigns in the next few years. These changes don't just mean more first-class seats; they also signal more types of premium cabins in more price tiers, all offering slightly different combinations of space, comfort and perks. In the meantime, airlines are piling benefits onto existing premium fares—better food and wine, kits full of high-end toiletries, gratis socks and slippers.

But for passengers at the back of the plane, all of this talk of upgraded comfort might sound like trolling. Flying in coach now means being antagonized at every turn—by extra fees for all kinds of things that used to be included, by the shrinking seat real estate, by overstuffed overhead bins, by the dwindling odds of ever getting to sit next to a blessedly empty seat. So is flying getting better, or is it getting worse?

The forefather of modern airline premiumization was TWA, which was the first carrier to take advantage of a regulatory change that allowed US airlines to separate passengers into multiple cabins, creating the first real premium seats in 1955. At the time a federal board set fare prices across carriers, and flyers everywhere on the plane had the same seats and the same amount of space. Because ticket prices were consistent among carriers, airlines competed with one another by piling on perks aimed at the business travelers who then made up about half of the flying public. Pan Am, in particular, was famous for having carving stations and cocktail lounges on long-haul flights. When the industry deregulated in 1979, it cemented the delineation of premium and coach classes across the airlines.

Once carriers were allowed to compete on price, the perks and roomy seats began to vanish. (Today, flyers have 3 or 4 inches less between their seatback and the one in front of them.) Upstart carriers—many of them short-lived regional brands such as Air Vermont or Golden Gate Airlines—poured into the market, prices fell, and airlines looked for ways to fit more people onto planes to keep revenue up and satisfy demand. As long as tickets were affordable, the new passengers could be coaxed on board without tons of amenities; flying from Cleveland to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, was better than driving.

Still, the skies have remained disproportionately populated by business travelers, who are individually many times more valuable to an airline than anybody headed to a girls' weekend in Miami. To keep them from straying to competitors, carriers invented loyalty programs and their rewards—most notably, frequent-flyer programs and miles. When upgraded seats were bought outright, it was usually by business travelers.

But that doesn't mean no one else was interested—it just means airlines dithered, unsure of exactly how big the leisure upgrade market was or how to reach it. Until relatively recently, people booking their own tickets for pleasure travel didn't get much of a pitch about why they should upgrade, says Gary Leff, an industry expert and proprietor of the website View From the Wing. "It's never really been well-marketed," he says.

Then, suddenly, the most reliable customers vanished from the skies. When conventions and client visits became Zooms in 2020, airlines slashed prices and devised strategies to get people to book at the front of the plane. Typically, premium fares make up 3% of traveler volume but account for 15% of passenger revenue, according to International Air Transport Association data. When revenue was especially scarce, cutting those fares by half or more to entice first-time upgraders was still preferable to having them sit in coach.

Now that travelers have had a taste of the good life—particularly those who skew female and younger than pre-pandemic upgraders, according to Delta—many have opted to continue buying, even as discounts have vanished. Airlines now also have a treasure trove of data about the pitches, amenities and prices that convert people into premium ticket buyers.

Keep reading: Why the Flying Experience Feels So Much Worse

And for more: 32 Rules for Flying Right Now

More Bw Reads

More From Bloomberg

Like Businessweek Daily? Check out these newsletters:

  • Business of Space for inside stories of investments beyond Earth
  • CFO Briefing for what finance leaders need to know
  • CityLab Daily for today's top stories, ideas and solutions from cities around the world
  • Tech Daily for exclusive reporting and analysis on tech and AI
  • Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance

Explore all newsletters at Bloomberg.com.

LAST CHANCE At The System That’s Raking In $34k Every 2 Weeks…

Your Retirement Has Never Been Closer!

Hey Trader, 

This is it… 

Your last chance to view a comprehensive training webinar that will show you how to leverage a powerful predictive technology that’s helping me rake in over $34k every 2 weeks like clockwork. 

The 48-hour replay expires in… 

Hopefully you're reading this before the timer says 00:00:00…  

If so, it means you still have time to click over right now and watch this powerful training and learn how to start implementing this system TODAY!

Click Here To Access This Powerful Information

Listen, it’s no exaggeration that the strategy I’m revealing in this webinar can radically boost your trading results. 

Not only that… 

It can completely transform your life, too. 

After all, that’s what it did for me and my family. 

My mission now is to pay it forward… 

And to help as many struggling traders out there as I possibly can, because I’ve been in your shoes. 

I know what it feels like to be drowning in debt… 

Stressed to the max… lying in bed at night and wondering how we’d ever make it through. 

I also know what it’s like to be on the other side of that… 

Completely debt-free… and completely secure. 

I can show you exactly how I did it… 

And how you can join me on this journey. 

But you have to click over right now, because time is almost up. 

Click here right now to view this information before time expires… 

And start taking back control of your life TODAY.

Yours for massive trading success, 

Anthony Speciale Jr
Editor & Chief Investment Strategist,
Big Energy Profits

Hawkeye Traders
team1@hawkeyetraders.com
hawkeyetraders.com
Call us: (888) 233-8598

DISCLAIMER: * Futures, stocks, and spot currency trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures, stocks, and forex markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or forex. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. Past performance of indicators or methodology are not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC Regulation 4.41 These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

We’ll always treat your personal information with the utmost care and will never sell it to third parties. You can find out more about what data we hold about you, why we need it, and how we keep that information safe in our Privacy Policy.

The Forecast: Search after Google

Plus, artificial surf parks.

Welcome back to The Forecast, a new newsletter from Bloomberg's Weekend Edition. We're here to help you think about the future — from next week to next decade — with predictions and analysis from around the world. Let us know what you think so far.

This week we're looking at the future of search, tough times for Japanese carmakers and the rise of faux surf parks. Also, news to watch from the weekend: On Saturday, Syrian insurgents took over most of Aleppo, the largest city in the country. 

Week Ahead

Monday: Manufacturing data f0r the US, UK, Eurozone, Canada and Russia will give clues on global trade heading into next year; Cyber Monday sales will cap what's expected to be a tough weekend for US retailers struggling with slower growth.

Tuesday: Brazil releases third-quarter GDP data amid concerns that its economy is running too hot; Salesforce is widely expected to report strong earnings on the back of growing AI demand.

Wednesday: Investors will be looking for signs in the OECD's economic outlook that headline inflation is subdued and confidence is improving.

Thursday: At an OPEC+ meeting delayed from Dec. 1 amid tensions over quotas, the group will consider reviving halted production in January. 

Friday: US payroll and unemployment data will assess the health of the labor market as the Fed weighs whether to cut interest rates mid-month. India's growth has been slumping — increasing pressure on its central bank — but Bloomberg Economics' Abhishek Gupta expects no rate cuts for now.  

After Google Search

The rise of OpenAI's ChatGPT has sparked talk of a new model of search in which artificial intelligence delivers decisive answers, rather than the page of links popularized by Google. But the biggest challenge for companies hoping to capitalize on that idea has been a lack of data — the kind that Google amassed through decades of running the internet's dominant search engine. 

Enter the US Justice Department, which last month proposed major changes to Google after a federal judge's landmark ruling that the tech giant illegally monopolized online search. The DOJ's proposed remedies include a forced sale of Google's Chrome browser and a provision forcing the tech giant to make the data it uses to generate search results available to rivals. Together, those two steps could upend search.

The DOJ isn't taking a position on who Google should sell Chrome to, but people familiar with the agency's thinking say it sees a wide range of possibilities. Options include US-based AI startups like OpenAI or Perplexity, or even an investment firm hoping to enter the red-hot market for generative AI services.

A new owner for Chrome, combined with the ability to replicate Google's search results, could "completely transform the advertising market," said Adam Epstein, the chief executive of adMarketplace, who met with the DOJ multiple times as the agency mulled its proposal for the judge.
 
Still, that scenario is a long shot.

First, Judge Amit Mehta, who is overseeing the case and is expected to rule on a remedy this summer, may not go for the DOJ's proposals. (Google has signaled it would aggressively counter the agency's recommendations, which it called "wildly overbroad," when it submits its own views this month.) Second, sharing Google's data with other companies may not have the intended effect. The EU's Digital Markets Act requires something similar, but DuckDuckGo, a rival search engine, contends that in practice it provides "little to no utility to competing search engines."
 
Finally, whatever Judge Mehta rules might not come to pass. Two decades ago, a federal judge ordered a breakup of Microsoft. Then the US presidency switched parties and the new DOJ took a different approach. Microsoft reached a settlement with antitrust prosecutors for a diminished penalty.

— Davey Alba and Leah Nylen, Bloomberg News

Predictions

"The market capitalization of US stocks is approaching $62 trillion — more than twice the size of the economy, and at a ratio that Warren Buffett explicitly warned about more than two decades ago… Buffett commented back in 2001 that 'if the percentage relationship [between market cap and GDP]… approaches 200%… you are playing with fire.'" — Ven Ram, Macro View (Terminal subscribers only)

"Valuations on US banks are at levels where recent history suggests a steep price decline is almost certain." — Sebastian Boyd, Macro View (Terminal subscribers only)

"One scientific simulation modeled how a single Russian tactical strike, in the space of less than an hour, could escalate into a full nuclear exchange that left 44 million dead and 57 million injured, not counting the radiation fatalities that come later." — Andreas Kluth, Bloomberg Opinion

"Rapidly depleting gas reserves and looming supply cuts from Moscow have the makings of a fresh energy crisis for Europe… The situation is about to get worse with gas deliveries that helped fill reserves in 2024 likely unavailable next year." — Anna Shiryaevskaya and Priscila Azevedo Rocha, Bloomberg News 

Artificial surf parks are proliferating. "Thanks to advances in computational fluid dynamics — the science of how water flows — and the rapidly declining cost of computing power, surfer-entrepreneurs have cracked the code on how to replicate the complex physics of breaking ocean waves." — Todd Woody, Bloomberg Green

Keep an Eye on

As China's assault on the world's auto industry gathers speed, Japan's national champions are emerging as some of the biggest victims.

In China itself, the world's largest car market, Japanese automakers are fighting for survival as local competitors flood showrooms with electric vehicles. The same Chinese companies are pushing into Southeast Asia, rapidly gaining ground in what has long been a stronghold for legacy brands like Toyota, Honda and Mitsubishi.

The loss of market share in Asia also portends a potential slide in Europe and the US, although Chinese carmakers largely don't sell passenger cars in the US due to tariffs. As a group, Japanese carmakers have been slow to shift to fully electric vehicles. That could cost them dearly as they fall further behind in an industry where winners are being minted based on smart software and cutting-edge battery technology.

— Yasufumi Saito, Jin Wu and Nicholas Takahashi, Bloomberg News

What Are the Chances...

50%
The chance (as of 6pm ET on Friday) that Bluesky hits 30 million users by Jan. 1, according to Metaculus, a no-money prediction platform. The social media app reported adding 1 million users on Nov. 15 alone and recently said it surpassed 20 million total users

Weekend Reads

Have a great Sunday and a productive week, and don't forget to tell us what you think about The Forecast!

—Walter Frick, Duncan Mavin and Katherine Bell, Bloomberg Weekend Edition; Davey Alba, Leah Nylen, Yasufumi Saito, Jin Wu and Nicholas Takahashi, Bloomberg News

More from Bloomberg

Enjoying The Forecast? Check out these newsletters:

Explore all newsletters at Bloomberg.com.

Your Free Report Is Ready: 3 Stocks That Could Triple This Year

Elon's new "super startup"

An analyst who called Palantir early says this is bigger - and almost no one is watching it  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ...