Thursday, February 1, 2024

A boost for Putin in Ukraine

Tensions within Ukraine are spilling into the open

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Tensions at the top in Ukraine are spilling into public view, just as delays in weapons deliveries from Kyiv's allies are being felt at the front.

It's great news for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi — feted for victories that pushed Russia back in late 2022 — refused to step down at a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who wants to shake up the military leadership after the failure of last year's counteroffensive.

That's all playing out as the 27-member European Union leaders today finally overcame a veto by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on more than €50 billion ($54 billion) in aid to Ukraine at a summit. Some $60 billion in US funding for Ukraine has been deadlocked in political disputes in Washington for months.

Growing shortages of munitions, particularly artillery shells, mean Russian forces now have three times as much firepower on the battlefield each day, Kyiv warned the EU this week.

Zaluzhnyi said late last year the war had reached a stalemate (though he later walked that back). Zelenskiy disagreed with that assessment and has pushed for a bolder approach, people familiar with the military leadership say.

Neither of those viewpoints will hold true unless the flow of arms from Ukraine's allies resumes quickly. Russia has ramped up its own defense production.

The risk for Ukraine is that splits between the military and political leadership may sow doubts in the US and Europe about the clarity of its intended war strategy this year.

That would add to existing strains in rallying support to help Kyiv repel Russia's invasion.

The war passes two years this month as Putin seeks a new term in March presidential elections.

For now, at least, he's entitled to believe that most things are going his way.

Zaluzhnyi, left, and Zelenskiy. Source: Ukrainian Presidency/Getty Images 

Global Must Reads

Negotiations on a deal to pause the Israel-Hamas war and free civilian hostages captured by Hamas are advancing, sources say. While the talks are still in the early stages, the proposal — which would amount to the longest truce and the biggest hostage release since the conflict began Oct. 7 — has a realistic chance of success and could lead to a longer-term cease-fire.

An Israeli bombardment in southern Gaza on Monday. Photographer: AFP/Getty Images

Donald Trump's legal troubles have siphoned off $51.2 million from his White House comeback effort in the past year. While the former US president has made the charges the center of his fundraising campaign, his political action committee is having to spend a significant amount of money to defend him.

The Pentagon added China's leading memory chipmaker and prominent players in AI, energy and automobiles to a list of companies it accuses of aiding the Asian nation's military. Washington already sanctions major telecom and aerospace players as well as Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. — firms at the heart of Beijing's bid to replace American technology.

It will take more than three centuries for Black Americans to achieve the same quality of life as their White neighbors, McKinsey & Co. said in a report, after the racial gap widened in more than half the country in the past decade. Even in cities such as New York and San Francisco, where outcomes overall are better for Black residents, parity would take 160 years. 

India's government will increase infrastructure spending, and boost housing and other services, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her final budget speech before elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration is benefiting from surging tax revenue, allowing it to continue spending ahead of the vote. Sitharaman vowed support for sectors targeted by Modi in the elections — farmers, young people, women and the poor.

The chief minister of India's Jharkand state and leader in the opposition coalition, Hemant Soren, was arrested yesterday in a case of alleged fraud.

The US launched two strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and intercepted a missile fired by the Iran-backed group, as the fallout from the Israel-Hamas war continues to roil the region.

Farmers brought dozens of tractors to Brussels near EU institutions in a demonstration aimed at the bloc's leaders meeting nearby for a summit, protesting what they say is unfair competition from abroad, subsidy cuts and regulation.

Washington Dispatch

President Joe Biden selected John Podesta, a prominent figure in Democratic Party politics for decades, to replace former Secretary of State John Kerry as the top US diplomat for climate. Podesta may present a somewhat less polarizing figure than Kerry, a onetime Democratic presidential nominee and a frequent target of conservatives as the environment remains a very political issue.

Trump and other Republican presidential candidates spent months denouncing Biden's environmental agenda while championing fossil fuels. Outside the US, populist leaders like Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Argentine President Javier Milei have dismissed alarm about global warming.

At the same time, sales of electric vehicles have slowed in the US and other countries. The wind energy industry had a rough year in 2023 because of  supply chain problems, inflation and higher costs, though it has shown signs of recovery. Although Kerry operated out of the State Department, Podesta, who became involved in politics as a college student when he joined Senator Eugene McCarthy's presidential campaign, will remain in the White House, where he has been Biden's clean energy adviser.

One thing to watch today: Biden along with congressional leaders of both parties will attend the National Prayer Breakfast at the Capitol.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for more from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 5pm ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

The EU has been a world leader for climate policy, but European Parliament elections this June have a chance of slowing the green transition. While the legislature has pushed through some of the world's most aggressive decarbonization plans — including the EU's 55% emissions-reduction target for 2030 — there are signs that voters are leaning toward candidates representing the more climate-skeptic right.

And Finally

Dozens of British wind farms run by some of Europe's largest energy companies have routinely overestimated how much power they'll produce, adding millions of pounds a year to electricity bills, according to market records and interviews with power traders. On blustery days, too much power risks overloading Britain's outdated electricity network and the grid operator must respond by paying firms not to generate. In effect, some wind farms are paid not to generate energy that they wouldn't have produced anyway.

Wind turbines near the town of Rushton. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

More from Bloomberg

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Angering the wasp's nest

Hello, everyone! I'm Claire Suddath, a senior writer on Bloomberg's Equality team and Bloomberg Businessweek, here to talk about the legal a

Hello, everyone! I'm Claire Suddath, a senior writer on Bloomberg's Equality team and Bloomberg Businessweek, here to talk about the legal attack on DEI. But first…

The wasp's nest

DEI, or 'Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion,' is the term that companies and institutions like to use when talking about what they do to make sure that people of all backgrounds can thrive at their organizations. Common DEI initiatives include: internal gender and racial pay gap analyses; mentorship programs, resource groups to help employees from underrepresented backgrounds develop a sense of community, and so on. Some programs are more successful than others. Some create meaningful change and some are just empty corporate gestures. 

Stephen Miller, the 38-year-old far-right political advisor who helped oversee the Trump administration's policy of separating children from their parents at the US border, now runs a law firm called America First Legal that's leading the crusade against corporate diversity initiatives. America First has filed a few lawsuits and released a slew of press releases in which it asks the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) to investigate everything from NASCAR's mentorship program for female drivers to Kellogg's attempts to hire more people of color.

But America First can't force the EEOC to investigate a company, it can only ask them to. What's more, its complaints "are not based on what the existing law is but what the organization thinks it should be," explains Michael Selmi, a law professor at Arizona State University who specializes in employment law and civil rights. They're coming on the heels of last year's US Supreme Court decision that effectively banned affirmative action in college admissions, though they're focused on a different part of the Civil Rights Act.

Title VII, as it's known, protects job applicants and employees from discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex and national origin. The specifics of America First's complaints vary by company but many of them boil down to the same argument: that corporate efforts to hire more women or people of color are de facto discrimination against White men. 

Take, for example, America First's complaints against the toy companies Hasbro and Mattel. The firm claims Hasbro's stated goal of raising its "racially and ethnically diverse" representation to 25% by 2025 is illegal. Meanwhile, Mattel attracted its ire because its "website explicitly states that management is working to increase 'representation of women' and "representation by ethnicity [sic]" at all levels."

It's long been understood (ever since the 1987 Supreme Court decision, Johnson v. Transportation Agency) that organizations are allowed to make conscious efforts to diversify their workforce but they cannot employ quota systems to get there. In other words, a company can say that it wants people of color to make up 25% of its workforce by 2025. It can change its recruiting tactics or job requirements to ensure a more diverse applicant pool in an effort to get there. But it can't reserve 25% of its open positions for applicants of a certain race. That's why, Selmi says, many of America First's EEOC requests are likely to go nowhere.

These EEOC requests are not the only way anti-diversity firms are going after businesses. The conservative nonprofit American Alliance for Equal Rights (run by Edward Blum, he of anti-affirmative action fame) has filed several lawsuits, including one against Fearless Fund, a venture capital firm owned by two Black women that ran a program offering $20,000 grants to Black female entrepreneurs. "Would a different venture capital fund's requirement that only White men are eligible for its funding and support be fair and legal?" Blum told Bloomberg when the lawsuit was first filed.

Yet, according to Deloitte, just 1% of investment partners are Black women (up from 0.25% in 2020) and Black female entrepreneurs receive less than 0.1% of all venture capital funding. So why try to shut down a program that offers the monetary equivalent of a used Honda?

Blum told the New York Times that "an individual's race and ethnicity should not be used to help them or harm them in their life's endeavors." If that's his aim, it raises the question of whether there could be a better, more effective way to work toward that goal rather than suing one of the few Black-owned venture capital funds that exist.

Fearless Fund's primary defense is that their grant is equivalent to a charitable donation and as such they're free, under the First Amendment, to give their money to whomever they want. If they were forced to "give to everyone or no one," as Jason Schwartz, one of Fearless Fund's lawyers, pointed out during a hearing on Wednesday, then organizations such as the Charitable Irish Society would also be forced to fold. 

The success of this argument depends on whether a VC fund counts as a charity or not. "A racially exclusive program is going to be more difficult to justify," says Selmi, "I don't know how that's going to play out."

Eventually, the Fearless Fund lawsuit (or one like it) may wind up before the US Supreme Court. But right now, the more immediate danger companies face is a much more nebulous one: angering the far-right wasp's nest. Which is why so many companies are scaling back their diversity initiatives, or at least the ones they talk about publicly. They have to weigh their options. Do they want a more diverse workforce? Or do they want to avoid having to deal with Stephen Miller?

By the numbers

$237 billion
The estimated amount in wages that vanish from the US economy a year due to women paring back their workloads to care for kids as child-care costs soar

What we're reading

New Voices

"It creates a ripple effect and a fear factor"
Ariel Schur
Chief Executive Officer of ABS Staffing Solutions in New York, on the spate of layoffs announced across corporate America this year
Bloomberg News supports amplifying the voices of women and other under-represented executives across our media platforms.

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