Trying time

Sheinbaum’s dilemma deepens ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. This past month has been among the worst yet for Claudia Sheinbaum in her time as Mexico’s president.  Legislative setbacks, a stubbornly stagnant economy, and now a growing scandal involving the CIA have taken a toll on her domestic popularity and the image she projects abroad. For the first time since she took power 18 months ago, Sheinbaum was unable to pass a landmark piece of legislation on the terms she sought, despite her Morena party commanding large majorities in both the Senate and the lower house.  That’s as an ongoing investment drought continues to undermine any attempt to jump-start a Mexican economy that faces the threat of a prolonged negotiation over tariffs with Washington. Sheinbaum’s most pressing source of concern, however, is security.  A slew of recent scandals have garnered unwanted international attention, notably the killing of a Canadian tourist in a rare case of gun violence at one of the country’s most visited archaeological sites.  Viral videos of the lone shooter atop Teotihuacan’s Pyramid of the Moon prompted Sheinbaum to issue assurances that Mexico is a safe destination for visitors. The Pyramid of the Moon following the shooting on Monday. Photographer: Valentina Alpide/AFP/Getty Images Then there’s the death of two CIA agents after a drug bust in northern Mexico that raised concerns over the scope of US involvement in security operations, national sovereignty, and Sheinbaum’s ability to keep President Donald Trump’s push to intervene in check. So far, neither side has provided a clear explanation of events, and behind the scenes, finger-pointing continues over who is to blame. All week long Sheinbaum has fielded questions over the scandal. Yet her daily press conferences have been short on facts, allowing speculation to run rampant. To make matters worse, both incidents occurred just weeks before the football World Cup opening match in Mexico City.  Sheinbaum has made it known she gave her ticket away to a child and won’t attend. — Gonzalo Soto Claudia Sheinbaum. Photographer: Oscar Del Pozo/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads Trump said Israel and Lebanon will extend their ceasefire by three weeks, a move that creates space to work on a long-term deal and removes a roadblock to ending the US war with Iran. Sources say the prospect of Tehran agreeing to more in-person peace talks are being hindered by the president’s threats and brash social media posts, which Iranian negotiators say are aimed at humiliating its leaders. Chinese President Xi Jinping has for years worked to isolate Taiwan’s leaders by blocking their diplomatic meetings and participation in global organizations — now, he’s also looking to keep them out of the skies. President Lai Ching-te was forced to cancel his rare state visit to Eswatini, his nation’s only ally in Africa, after the Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar’s last-minute decision to revoke overflight permits, at China’s behest. From Beijing’s perspective, Trump will make his first visit to China in more than a decade on a far weaker footing than when he last met with Xi just six months ago. That’s because, for the second time since returning to power, the US president has tested his leverage against a major adversary and misjudged the response. We analyze what to expect from the trip set for mid-May — if the Iran war doesn’t delay it again. European Union leaders signaled that preliminary conditions are in place for Ukraine to begin the first stage of the membership process, a boost for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s efforts to join the bloc though any commitment on a date remains elusive. While Trump said it could be useful for Vladimir Putin to attend this year’s Group of 20 meeting in Florida, he didn’t expect the Russian president to show up. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is considering calling for a general election in the third quarter as his government weighs politically sensitive cuts to fuel subsidies amid the global energy crunch, sources say. Anwar, whose term ends in early 2028, is weighing a vote by October, provided his government isn’t forced to further trim subsidies before then. Anwar Ibrahim in November. Photographer: Samsul Said/Bloomberg The Trump administration unveiled measures aimed at preventing Chinese developers from improperly using leading US artificial intelligence models to build a rival generation of chatbots, the most significant US effort so far to rein in a practice known as distillation. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said his government will maintain normal cooperation with NATO allies and brushed off a report that US officials are considering punishing his country for its stance on the Iran war. India condemned an article shared by Trump on social media that called the South Asian nation a “hellhole.” President Cyril Ramaphosa suspended South Africa’s police chief amid fraud allegations. Don’t miss from Bloomberg Weekend: Mishal Husain speaks to Wendy Sherman, architect of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, about how China and Russia are beneficiaries of the current conflict. Will Dun writes on the decline of the UK’s once great Tory party, and Paula Doenecke and Hugo Miller look into the mysteries of particle physics. Subscribe to the newsletter here. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day After a 20-year boom in bourbon and other American whiskeys, supply now outpaces demand. While changes in drinking habits are one reason, exports of whiskey were down across the board last year, notably plunging to Europe and Canada amid a boycott of US products. Trump’s tariffs and retaliation have put US whiskey in a particularly precarious position. The good news? It’s a fine time to buy some — if you pick the right bottles to collect. And Finally In Islamabad, pride about Pakistan’s role in the negotiations to seek a peace deal between the US and Iran has turned to exasperation for many residents inconvenienced by the security measures for two weeks now. Across the city, welcome banners still line the streets while authorities continue to keep restrictions in place in the hope of hosting further talks. The result is a kind of limbo in which citizens of Pakistan’s capital endure checkpoints, traffic jams and work-from-home orders, growing ever more frustrated with the lockdown. Security personnel guard a checkpoint near the Serena Hotel in Islamabad on Wednesday. Photographer: Aamir Qureshi/AFP/Getty Images Pop Quiz (no cheating!). The government of which country approved legal changes this week that will allow the export of lethal military equipment for the first time since World War II? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net More from Bloomberg Next China for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it’s going next Next Africa, a daily newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Fault Lines from Bloomberg Economics for daily research on how geoeconomics is reshaping business and markets Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com We’re improving your newsletter experience and we’d love your feedback. If something looks off, help us by reporting it here. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg’s Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox. Unsubscribe Bloomberg.com Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10022 |