Editor's Note: Our colleague, the former $900 million hedge fund manager Larry Benedict, has discovered a way to make money from gold… WITHOUT buying a single ounce. Read on to learn more…
Dear Reader,
Imagine collecting $42,920 in cash profits from the gold market.
You don't need to own a single ounce of gold.
You don't need to buy coins, bars, or stocks.
Yet you could have made $2,975 from one move. $3,781 from another. And even $6,786 from a five-day gold decline.
Rocket Companies (RKT) Stock is Risky But There’s a Contrarian Play Here
Posted On Apr 17, 2026 by Joshua Enomoto
At a glance, fintech specialist Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT) — which specializes in mortgages and other homeownership services — doesn’t seem like a natural bullish target in 2026. The economy is struggling, geopolitical flashpoints are raging, and benchmark interest rates are sky-high relative to their pre-COVID levels. There’s also the matter of RKT stock losing about 20% on a year-to-date basis.
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Still, you don’t typically find outsized opportunities from obvious trades. For the highest of rewards, you usually have to accept a greater margin of risk. RKT may not be a contrarian move for its own sake. Instead, some justifying points underscore the aggressive bullish thesis.
First, on a broader level, no one can deny that the economy isn’t firing on all cylinders. However, it’s not a pure headwind for all categories. Because of the K-shaped recovery from the pandemic, the top arm of the K is essentially doing the heavy lifting, especially for the housing market.
Translation? First-time buyers only represent 21% of the market — a record low. Still, equity-rich players (such as repeat buyers or those from older generations) aren’t as sensitive to the 6.3% mortgage rates due to a variety of factors. These include higher income levels and significant cash holdings from prior home sales.
Another critical factor to consider is the aforementioned rate sensitivity and the possible “refi” opportunity. Sure, the current 30-year fixed is hovering around 6.4%. However, the key characteristic to note is the 60-month beta of RKT stock. If the benchmark rate experiences any downward movement — which is something the Trump administration has long pushed for — RKT could see a disproportionately positive impact.
Fundamentally, there’s a massive backlog of “locked-in” homeowners. Therefore, even a modest dip in rates could trigger a significant refinancing wave. Thanks to Rocket’s digital-first platform, the company can scale capacity almost instantly to meet a surge in volume — offering a sharp contrast to traditional retail banks.
Of course, from a trading perspective, such a thesis extends beyond a typical short-term timeframe. Nevertheless, the front-running sentiment of such a move could trigger active motion in RKT.
Using Inductive Math to Strategize a Plan for RKT
While the fundamental narrative underpinning the contrarian case for Rocket stock is intriguing, I’ll be the first to admit it doesn’t provide a quantifiable blueprint for trading RKT. Yeah, there’s potentially a reversion-to-the-mean play here with the security suffering red ink over the past few months. It does seem, though, that RKT has found a bottom on March 30.
Still, that doesn’t definitively answer the question: where will RKT head and within what timeframe?
That’s perhaps the biggest difference between options trading and writing a standard finpub piece. With the latter, you can handwave an explanation, and there’s always a solid chance that dumb luck may be enough to make you look prescient. Unfortunately, with the former, handwaving isn’t effective because there are time-based endpoints to meet.
In this scenario, we need to find a more tangible methodology. That’s where induction comes into view.
At the end of the day, induction is pattern recognition, relying heavily on the uniformity of nature: the assumption that the future will behave like the past.
Consider our national pastime. If a player has a career hitting average of .250, the basic inductive assumption is that for every 100 pitches that they see, they’re going to hit 25 of them. As such, people often talk about players being due for a timely contribution. I hypothesize that the equities market works in a similar fashion.
For RKT stock, a random 10-week hold (using data going back to the company’s initial public offering) should yield a forward distribution landing between roughly $15.20 and $16.20, assuming a starting price of $15.56. Notably, the exceedance ratio — or the likelihood that this 10-week long position will end up in the black — stands at 55%.
That’s a solid statistic, meaning that out of 100 times you buy RKT stock, you’re likely to be profitable 55 times. But we’re not interested per se in understanding the forward probability under aggregate conditions. Rather, we’re interested in the expected distribution of outcomes in the current behavioral state.
In the past 10 weeks, Rocket stock has only printed three up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. This 3-7-D quantitative signal statistically carries a different distribution relative to the aggregate of all signals. Under this behavioral state, we would expect RKT to range between $14 and $20.50, with probability density peaking on average at $17.
Now, we have an identifiable target that we can potentially exploit.
Zeroing In on a Specific Trading Idea
Honestly, with the inductive math above, my job is doing itself. Aggressive contrarians may want to consider the 17/18 bull call spread expiring June 18. This trade involves buying the $17 call and selling the $18 call simultaneously on a single execution. We’re looking for RKT stock to rise through the $18 strike at expiration. If it does, the maximum (capped) payout clocks in at over 138%.
Adding to the enticing nature of the trade, the breakeven price on this bull spread sits at $17.42. It’s a bit beyond the expected peak probability density, landing at $17. However, this is arguably a reasonable stretch as prior technical support for RKT stock was around $18. Thus, if a reversion to the mean happens, the second-leg strike is well within the realm of rationality.
In fact, I wouldn’t be opposed to the ultra-aggressive 18/19 bull spread (also expiring June 18). Yes, $19 would stretch into the final third of the expected forward distribution. However, with a net debit per spread of only $30, it’s a low capital exposure with plenty of upside. Should RKT stock rise through the $19 strike at expiration, the max payout would be over 233%.
Granted, Rocket stock is an extremely ambitious idea. Further, induction is not foolproof, which is subject to the black swan risk. In other words, just because you see a thousand white swans doesn’t necessarily mean that all swans are white. Nevertheless, in a world of uncertainties, induction is perhaps the best tool retail traders have to level the playing field.
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