A Latam pragmatist

Ecuador’s leader positions himself as an unconventional Trump ally ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. As Latin American leaders scramble to accommodate Donald Trump, Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa is charting his own path. Trump’s so-called Donroe Doctrine — a revival of US assertiveness over the Western hemisphere — is rippling across the region. Where Trump shares an ideological bent with Argentina’s Javier Milei and leans on El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele for his anti-immigration security model, Noboa is positioning himself as a pragmatic partner. Speaking from his art-filled apartment in the crime-hit port city of Guayaquil this week, the 38-year-old president told us that closer ties with Washington can help deliver what Ecuador needs most: control over spiraling drug violence, renewed foreign investment, and reduced dependence on China. Annmarie Hordern interviews Noboa on Bloomberg TV. He’s not entirely falling in line with Trump’s doctrine, however. China remains Ecuador’s primary source of financing and investment, underscoring Noboa’s tightrope act as the US presses partners to limit their exposure to Beijing. At home, Noboa faces the challenge of wresting control from criminal gangs while maintaining economic stability at a time of oil-price uncertainty triggered by Trump’s Iran war. The son of Ecuador’s richest man, Noboa resists easy comparisons. He rejects Bukele’s approach of negotiating with gangs and distances himself from Milei’s economic shock therapy. His model, he says, is closer to that of former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe: a hardline security strategy paired with economic policies aimed at restoring jobs and stability. Yet Noboa has expressed admiration for Brazil’s veteran leftist leader, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and regards Ecuador’s poverty rate — the lowest in nearly two decades — as his key metric of progress. Pitching himself as a centrist, Noboa argues that security and investment — not ideology — offer the fastest way to stabilize Ecuador. Trump looms over Latin America right now. With elections nearing in Peru, Colombia and Brazil, Noboa’s pragmatism might just offer a template for both leftists and conservatives across the region. — Mie Dahl A protester holds an effigy of Noboa during a demonstration against the disappearance of four minors who went missing during a military operation, in Guayaquil, on Dec. 31. Photographer: Marcos Pin/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads Vice President JD Vance will lead a US delegation for direct talks with Iran in Pakistan on Saturday, even as continued fighting in the Middle East — punctuated by intensified Israeli strikes in Lebanon — threatens to derail a fragile two-week ceasefire. Trump vowed to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of the talks, while Tehran warned there may be mines in a strategic waterway Washington wants reopened. The UK will seek to ensure that Lebanon is included in the US-Iran pact.  The US wants specific commitments from European allies on their pledge to help secure the Strait of Hormuz after the fighting in Iran stops, requesting countries present concrete plans to ensure navigation through the waterway within days, a senior NATO official said. Two fully laden Chinese oil tankers are meanwhile waiting outside the strait, putting them in a position to become the first such vessels to leave the Persian Gulf under the ceasefire. Bloomberg’s Weilun Soon reports on the latest from the waterway. Trump lashed out at NATO after meeting the military alliance’s secretary general, making clear that his anger over the body’s stance on the Iran war remained acute. Mark Rutte was in Washington to temper the president’s public displeasure after NATO allies refused to help him protect ships in the strait or let the US use some of their bases to attack Iran. Former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte called on Italy to increase its engagement with other nations including China after Trump repeatedly targeted Europe with tariffs and threatened to undermine transatlantic security. The leader of the Five Star Movement oversaw Rome’s embrace of China’s Belt and Road initiative, with Italy the only Group of Seven nation to become part of the deal that current leader Giorgia Meloni left in 2023. Viktor Orban is embroiled in the fight of his political life against a younger challenger in Hungary’s election, with the outcome of Sunday’s vote set to have geopolitical ramifications from Washington to Moscow via the presidential palace in Kyiv. Slovak leader Robert Fico has vowed to march ahead with an anti-European Union campaign if Orban is ousted from power, though sources says he may struggle to carry the mantle. Labour has slipped to fourth place in UK national polling ahead of a set of local and regional elections next month that are shaping up to be particularly bruising for Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s governing party. The US is considering lifting sanctions on Venezuela’s central bank to facilitate the flow of billions of dollars into its battered economy. Ethiopia’s military is harboring and assisting the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group accused of mass killings in Sudan, a Yale University research unit said. Moscow summoned Japanese ambassador Akira Muto to lodge a protest over an investment agreement between Japan’s Terra Drone and a Ukrainian drones developer and warned that relations between the two countries had reached an all-time low. On this episode of Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders is joined by Bloomberg’s Brendan Murray and Peter Martin to examine how the war in Iran has choked one of the world’s most vital shipping routes. You can also listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day As war injects extreme volatility into oil and gas markets, the global race for energy security is making China stronger, according to Deutsche Bank’s Jacky Tang. The prediction feeds into a complex picture. While think tank Bruegel says Beijing’s reliance on oil imports from Iran is set to pose a “severe test” for its energy strategy, Tang said its status as the world’s largest producer of clean tech puts it in a unique position to help governments now desperate to wean themselves off Middle East imports. And Finally North Korea conducted a slew of tests of new armaments this week — including an electromagnetic weapon system and an anti-aircraft missile — as it ramps up efforts to upgrade its conventional arms. The tests come at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, drawing US military assets out of Asia, while Pyongyang continues to deepen its ties with Moscow and build on existing ties with Beijing. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects a shooting competition at a training base in Pyongyang on March 3. Source: KCNA/KNS/Getty Images More from Bloomberg Check out our Bloomberg Investigates film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries Next China for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it’s going next Next Africa, a daily newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com We’re improving your newsletter experience and we’d love your feedback. If something looks off, help us by reporting it here. 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