|
Reading time: 5 minutes |
News | Crypto Converter | Crypto Calculators |
Will Bitcoin hold above $65K as oil prices rally to a 3-year high? |
|
Key points: |
On Monday, oil prices closed above $105 for the first time since 2023 as traders anticipate U.S ground troops in Iran. QCP noted that Bitcoin Option traders were 'cautious,' but not in a 'panic' mode yet.
|
News - Oil prices closed above $105 on Monday, marking a three-year high and straining investor sentiment across the U.S stock market and crypto. |
As expected, the sharp surge has raised inflationary fears. However, for his part, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has tried to calm the markets, billing the ongoing energy market shocks as 'short-term.' He downplayed the long-term impact of the crisis on inflation. This didn't really bolster broader market sentiment though as U.S equity markets dropped lower soon after. |
March pattern persists - On the contrary, Bitcoin has remained overall resilient during the West Asia crisis. In fact, crypto trading firm QCP Capital noted that it may be repeating a familiar trend during the crisis, |
"BTC briefly dipped to $65k in thin Asia hours before rebounding into the $66k to $67k range, continuing the pattern of weekend weakness followed by early-week stabilisation." |
At the time of writing, it was trading at $67.6K, up over 4% from Sunday's low of $65K. This, on the same day as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reporting that President Donald Trump os planning for ground troops if talks with Iran fail. Ultimately, this could further exert distress on the energy markets, especially after the 6 April deadline. |
Despite BTC outperforming gold and stocks during the crisis, it is now unclear whether its 'non-sovereign safe haven' status would continue to hold or not. |
What to expect in April? - On the Options front, QCP Capital noted that while traders might be cautious, they are not in a panic mode yet. |
"While back-end vols have edged lower, post-expiry compression has been less pronounced than typically seen after a major quarterly roll. This reflects a still-cautious market, with traders continuing to pay for gamma." |
Put differently, there is a rising demand for short-term protection, with hedging for a potential drop to $60K in early April. |
Aave V4 debuts on Ethereum mainnet with 'hub-and-spoke' design |
|
Key points: |
Aave V4 has a 'hub-and-spoke' design to ensure a single pool of liquidity capable of serving a wider range of financial markets and use cases. Initially, the roll-out will be 'controlled' and 'narrow', but V4 will expand to several chains beyond Ethereum.
|
News - Aave has launched its V4, which seeks better liquidity optimization and contagion risk mitigation, targeting institutional players. |
In a statement on Monday, the DeFi project said that Aave V4 introduced a 'Hub and Spoke' architecture to enhance efficiency and scalability. |
'Hub-and-Spoke' architecture - Aave hubs will act as concentrated liquidity sources that various markets can use, including new financial markets in the future. Spoke, on the other hand, is an independent borrowing and risk-controlled environment that connects users to the unified liquidity layer. |
Collectively, the new design will improve capital efficiency in a way that was not possible with V3. |
Worth noting, however, that what was launched on Monday is a narrow scope of V4. Part of the products that went live were Aave Pro, a free and dedicated user interface that supports Hubs and Spokes. |
Additionally, only three hubs went live - Core Hub (main access, risk-adjusted), Prime Hub (conservative suppliers for low risk), and Plus Hub(focused on risk return). Other hubs will be introduced later. |
What's next?- Currently, the asset supply is capped to evaluate the new system. The V4 debuted on Ethereum, but there are plans to scale expansion to other networks. |
"The Aave DAO will expand supply and borrow caps, add new Spokes, and bring V4 to additional networks as the protocol proves itself in production." |
Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, also added, |
"We're aiming for sort of a controlled launch. That's how we always deployed the Aave v3, Aave v2, and v1, in a very controlled training wheels manner." |
This launch follows a recent approval vote that gave it a go-ahead. The vote was introduced last week and ended on Sunday with over 430K users (over 60%) backing it. |
Intriguingly, AAVE posted gains of only 1.5% after the bullish update. At press time, it was trading at $97.6. |
U.S opens 401(k) trillions to crypto as Bitcoin reserve push emerges |
|
Key points: |
The Department of Labor has proposed a rule to diversify 401(k) access to crypto, real estate, and private equity. U.S Senators also introduced a 'Mined in America Act' to establish a national BTC reserve.
|
News - The United States has pushed two major crypto-related policies this week, one seeking to open 401(k)s to crypto and another aiming to codify the much-awaited Bitcoin reserve. |
On Monday, the U.S Department of Labor proposed a rule aimed at making it easier for retirement portfolios, 401(k)s, to include alternatives such as crypto, private equity, and real estate. These products controlled $9.3 trillions in assets as of 2025. |
Crypto in retirement portfolios - The move follows last August's executive order by President Donald Trump in which he instructed the Labor Department and the SEC to enhance 401(k)s access to alternative assets. Currently, retirement portfolios are subscribed to stocks and bonds. |
Reacting to the draft rule, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said, |
"This proposed rule will show how plans can consider products that better reflect the investment landscape as it exists today." |
Reactions and BTC reserve outlook - Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the proposal, saying it would benefit large financial firms and not American citizens. |
"As cracks emerge in the private credit market, private equity returns fall to 16-year lows, and crypto keeps tumbling, President Trump has decided now is the time to stick all of these risky assets into Americans' 401(k)s." |
Separately, U.S Senators Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-LA) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) introduced the 'Mined in America Act' that would establish a federal BTC reserve if passed into law. |
Worth noting, however, that the market is pricing only a 17% chance that such a reserve would be formed before 2027. Especially as mid-term elections beckon. |
Can Quantum computing break Bitcoin earlier than thought? |
|
Key points: |
Research paper warned that it could take 500K physical qubits or 1,450 'high-quality' qubits to crack Bitcoin and Ethereum encryption. Over 6.9 million BTC supply with leaked public keys is already at risk.
|
News - Cracking the Bitcoin network with a quantum computer may not be as challenging or decades away as previously estimated. |
According to a research paper authored by Google Quantum AI team member Ryan Babbush, among others, the computing power needed to crack Bitcoin security may be way lower than prior assumptions. Notably, it only needs 500,000 physical quantum bits (Qubits) to break the cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum. |
This was contrary to the 'millions' quibits cited by other research papers. Consequently, this has raised new concerns about how soon the quantum threats could become a reality. |
Possible quantum attacks - According to the paper, cracking encryption behind old Bitcoin wallets could be possible using fewer than 1500 'high-quality qubits.' |
Besides, an attacker could go for the assets while they are still in real-time transactions with faster quantum computers. The paper singled out Bitcoin as more vulnerable, as it takes about 10 minutes for transactions to confirm while briefly revealing the public key. |
These private keys could be calculated faster enough and the funds could be stolen, it claimed. |
The team estimated that about 6.9 million BTC (a third of the total supply) sits in wallets that have exposed public keys in some way. This includes 1.7 million BTC from Satoshi-era wallets, contradicting a recent CoinShares report that stated that only 10.2K BTC could be at risk. |
Market reactions - The team marked 2029 as a key deadline before capable quantum computers arrive. They added, |
"We urge all vulnerable cryptocurrency communities to join the migration to PQC (post-quantum computer era) without delay." |
Commenting on the same, Charles Edwards of VC Capriole Investments said, |
"Bitcoin will likely never make a new ATH until Bitcoin Core takes quantum risk seriously. We must upgrade Bitcoin in 2026. That means broad consensus among Bitcoin Core to allow for the 2-year implementation timeline." |
|
Go from AI overwhelmed to AI savvy professional |
|
AI will eliminate 300 million jobs in the next 5 years. |
Yours doesn't have to be one of them. |
Here's how to future-proof your career: |
Join the Superhuman AI newsletter - read by 1M+ professionals Learn AI skills in 3 mins a day Become the AI expert on your team
|
Start learning AI now |
|
|
|
More stories from the crypto ecosystem |
|
Interesting facts |
Stablecoin market supply has hit a new high of $315B despite a broader muted crypto trading market. The divergence underscores that stablecoins are no longer a niche experiment in crypto trading, but a growing upgrade in the cross-border payments stack. Most crypto treasuries have remained relatively stable and outlived previously expected blow-ups and headwinds for the sector. However, some firms like Nakamoto remain in distress. It recently sold $22.6M worth of BTC, at a 40% loss, to fund its operations. Tokenization (real-world tokenization, RWA) has hit new highs. Tokenized assets surged by 245% YoY in Q1 2026. Initial TradFi RWA experiments have now been upgraded to full deployment, with major players like Morgan Stanley, Nasdaq, and NYSE all betting on the tokenized assets.
|
Forget Nvidia — These 5 Stocks Could Soar Next |
MarketBeat's analysts just released their five highest-rated stocks for March 2026, and none of the usual suspects made the cut. Not Apple. Not Nvidia. See which companies earned a spot on this month's list. |
View the 5 Stocks Now |
|
Top 3 coins of the day |
Midnight (NIGHT) |
|
Key points: |
NIGHT rallied by 20% in the last 48 hours, following Cardano-backed privacy chain Midnight's mainnet debut. Rally at risk of profit-taking if the range-high at $0.054 becomes a sell wall again.
|
What you should know: |
NIGHT, the native token of privacy-focused chain Midnight, rallied by 20% in the past 48 hours. The rally followed Midnight's official mainnet debut on Monday after years of development. On the price charts, however, the rally seemed to be approaching a range high. Additionally, the RSI was heading to an overbought zone that may signal buyer exhaustion and potential sell-off at the range-high ($0.054). On the contrary, the MACD seemed close to printing a bullish crossover, but that remains to be seen. Unless post-Midnight debut hype remains, the rally could stall at the range-high. Put differently, short-sellers could jump into the market near $0.052 and $0.054 if the buying pressure weakens in mid-week. |
Rain (RAIN) |
|
Key points: |
RAIN rallied by nearly 8% on Tuesday, thanks to Bitcoin's relief bounce. Altcoin's rebound was marked by low trading volumes and subdued buying pressure.
|
What you should know: |
RAIN bounced from this week's low of $0.0073 to $0.0083, marking a nearly 8% surge on Tuesday. The bounce followed Bitcoin's 4% recovery earlier in the week. However, it remains unclear if the token can sustain the upside momentum or not. Notably, since February, the altcoin's RSI has remained range-bound below the neutral level, underscoring subdued demand. Besides, Tuesday's bounce was not accompanied by a massive volume spike to indicate strong buying pressure. Collectively, the weak signals suggested that the rally could be stifled at the 61.8% Fib level or closer to the 50% Fib level. |
XRP |
|
Key points: |
XRP fell by 19%, erasing gains achieved in March as Q1 comes to an end. Altcoin could drop further before bulls attempt re-entry at the October crash low of $1.25.
|
What you should know: |
XRP has dropped by 19% from mid-March, erasing this month's gains. The pullback has dipped below the $1.34 demand zone that has held steady since February. However, the cracking below the support meant that the October crash low of $1.25 could be within reach if market sentiment worsens into early April. In fact, the MACD death cross seen last week suggested that the drop may be far from over. Besides, the RSI was yet to tag the oversold zone to suggest seller exhaustion. To put it simply, there may be a chance that XRP could slip lower before attempting a rebound on the charts. |
How was today's newsletter? |
|
No comments:
Post a Comment