How Market Makers Take Your Money During Earnings — and How to Beat Them

Stop Being the Sucker at the Poker Table

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How Market Makers Take Your Money During Earnings — and How to Beat Them  I need to share something with you that will completely change how you think about earnings trades. Most traders walk straight into a trap, and it costs them serious money. Here's the trap. When you see a stock like Delta Air Lines (DAL) with a 6.8% move priced into earnings options, that expectation is already baked into the option price.  If you buy that option for $2 — and I'm using $2 here just to make the math simple — that $2 already reflects the full 6.8% expected move. So you're not just betting on direction...  You're fighting the baked-in move, the premium, and the market's interpretation of earnings all at once. I'd rather do what market makers do — sell those inflated options to retail traders.  Over time, if you keep selling options that expire right after earnings, you benefit from the inevitable volatility crush. After earnings, those premiums implode. That's why market makers love this setup. The Calendar Spread Advantage Here's how you flip the script. Right before earnings, the option expiring immediately after the announcement will often have close to 100% implied volatility, while the following week's option will usually sit around 60%. That means the near-term option trades at a significant premium to the longer-dated one. The key is understanding the historical behavior of implied volatility. You always want to look at the actual implied volatility trends over many quarters, not estimates or guesses. Consistent patterns over the last 20 quarters tell you whether the inflated pricing is justified or overstated — and this is where the edge really forms. Once you identify the setup, you sell the expensive option for say $3.35, and buy the cheaper one for $3.00, creating a net debit of 35 cents. If the stock sits at the same price after earnings, the near-term option collapses to $0 while the further-dated option still carries real value — often around $3. You risked 35 cents and ended up with $3. That's nine to 10 times your money in the ideal scenario. In practice, I typically capture 25-30% returns on these trades, and sometimes I can close them before earnings even happen. Why This Works Every Time This strategy works because you're selling expensive implied volatility and buying cheap implied volatility — exactly what market makers do. I built this logic into Data Miner to tell us the odds of how often options fail to outperform their expected move. Stop being the fish at the poker table. Start doing what the house does — collect from the traders who think they can beat the odds. Market makers have been running this play for decades. It's time you joined them. If you want more info on Data Miner, be sure to check this out! We’re running a killer deal right now but be warned, the price goes up $500 at midnight tonight!   Check Out Data Miner *We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. The profits and performance shown are not typical. The trades expressed are based on historical signals from the Data Mining Software to demonstrate the potential of the trading tool. While we have been using the Data Mining Software with great success, we cannot guarantee any future results. Roger Scott Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!   • Telegram:https://t.me/+_vmfwkeP8fA5YWQ5 This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Join the Conversation   Give us a follow on your social media platform of choice, and make your voice heard!

How Market Makers Take Your Money During Earnings — and How to Beat Them   I need to share something with you that will completely change how you think about earnings trades. Most traders walk straight into a trap, and it costs them serious money.   Here's the trap. When you see a stock like Delta Air Lines (DAL) with a 6.8% move priced into earnings options, that expectation is already baked into the option price.    If you buy that option for $2 — and I'm using $2 here just to make the math simple — that $2 already reflects the full 6.8% expected move. So you're not just betting on direction...    You're fighting the baked-in move, the premium, and the market's interpretation of earnings all at once.   I'd rather do what market makers do — sell those inflated options to retail traders.    Over time, if you keep selling options that expire right after earnings, you benefit from the inevitable volatility crush. After earnings, those premiums implode. That's why market makers love this setup.   The Calendar Spread Advantage   Here's how you flip the script. Right before earnings, the option expiring immediately after the announcement will often have close to 100% implied volatility, while the following week's option will usually sit around 60%. That means the near-term option trades at a significant premium to the longer-dated one.   The key is understanding the historical behavior of implied volatility. You always want to look at the actual implied volatility trends over many quarters, not estimates or guesses. Consistent patterns over the last 20 quarters tell you whether the inflated pricing is justified or overstated — and this is where the edge really forms.   Once you identify the setup, you sell the expensive option for say $3.35, and buy the cheaper one for $3.00, creating a net debit of 35 cents. If the stock sits at the same price after earnings, the near-term option collapses to $0 while the further-dated option still carries real value — often around $3.   You risked 35 cents and ended up with $3. That's nine to 10 times your money in the ideal scenario. In practice, I typically capture 25-30% returns on these trades, and sometimes I can close them before earnings even happen.   Why This Works Every Time   This strategy works because you're selling expensive implied volatility and buying cheap implied volatility — exactly what market makers do. I built this logic into Data Miner to tell us the odds of how often options fail to outperform their expected move.   Stop being the fish at the poker table. Start doing what the house does — collect from the traders who think they can beat the odds. Market makers have been running this play for decades. It's time you joined them.   If you want more info on Data Miner, be sure to check this out!   We’re running a killer deal right now but be warned, the price goes up $500 at midnight tonight!   Check Out Data Miner *We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. The profits and performance shown are not typical. The trades expressed are based on historical signals from the Data Mining Software to demonstrate the potential of the trading tool. While we have been using the Data Mining Software with great success, we cannot guarantee any future results.   Roger Scott Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!   Telegram:https://t.me/+_vmfwkeP8fA5YWQ5 This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Join the Conversation   Give us a follow on your social media platform of choice, and make your voice heard!

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. The TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from The TradingPub are for your informational purposes only. Neither The TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. The TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://thetradingpub.com/terms-of-service/  for our full Terms and Conditions. *I agree to receive automated calls, text messages, and prerecorded artificial voice messages via an automated dialing system about promotions (including cart reminders) from or on behalf of The TradingPub and its affiliated brands at the telephone number I provide and I understand consent is not a condition of purchase. Message and data rates may apply. Text “STOP” to unsubscribe; text “HELP” for help. Terms & Conditions/Privacy Policy Unsubscribe This email was sent to reunisoft.cryptonews@blogger.com by The TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Roger Scott

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. The TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from The TradingPub are for your informational purposes only. Neither The TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. The TradingPub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://thetradingpub.com/terms-of-service/  for our full Terms and Conditions.   *I agree to receive automated calls, text messages, and prerecorded artificial voice messages via an automated dialing system about promotions (including cart reminders) from or on behalf of The TradingPub and its affiliated brands at the telephone number I provide and I understand consent is not a condition of purchase. Message and data rates may apply. Text “STOP” to unsubscribe; text “HELP” for help. Terms & Conditions/Privacy Policy Unsubscribe This email was sent to reunisoft.cryptonews@blogger.com by The TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318 Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Roger Scott