The Disconnect Between Fear and Fundamentals
The numbers tell a very different story than the narrative. Nvidia just reported fiscal Q4 results that demolished expectations:
✔️ Revenue — $68.1 billion for the quarter, up 73% year over year. Full fiscal year revenue hit $215.9 billion, up 65% from the prior year.
✔️ Earnings — EPS of $1.62, blowing past the $1.53 consensus estimate. Net income for the full year exceeded $120 billion.
✔️ Data center dominance — Data center revenue reached $62.3 billion for the quarter, up 75% year over year.
✔️ Forward guidance — Nvidia guided $78 billion in Q1 revenue, well ahead of even the most bullish analysts on Wall Street.
Jensen Huang stated on the earnings call that computing demand is growing exponentially and customers are racing to invest. He called the idea that AI would destroy the software industry the most illogical thing in the world.
Citadel's Response Dismantled the Doom Case
Citadel Securities published a macro strategy report that systematically took apart the fear narrative, and the key points cut deep:
✔️ Jobs data contradicts the thesis — Citrini's report assumes software and consulting jobs are collapsing, but actual data from Indeed shows demand for software engineers is rising, up 11% year over year in early 2026.
✔️ Technology follows an S-curve — Adoption does not compound infinitely and instantaneously. Energy constraints, compute limitations, and organizational timelines all create friction. The idea that AI replaces 50% of white-collar workers by 2028 requires ignoring every historical precedent of how technology diffuses through an economy.
✔️ Complement, not substitute — Citadel posed the rhetorical question: was Microsoft Office a complement or substitute for office workers? The answer is obvious. There is a strong case that AI will follow the same pattern on a much larger scale.
Disruption is coming — nobody disputes that. But the idea that historically discounted AI names reporting triple-digit sales growth with expanding margins are never coming back is a narrative built to shake out weak hands, not a reflection of reality.
These fear cycles come and go, and they create better buying opportunities for investors focused on the next two, five, and ten years rather than the next two weeks.
With catalysts like money printing, potential stimulus, and midterm-year tailwinds ahead in 2026, the current fear cycle appears to be exactly what history suggests — temporary.
Anyways...
That's all for now!
Until Next Time,
-ZT Team
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