Hey Folks,
Japan has been running one of the wildest monetary experiments in history—and after 30 years, it's finally unraveling...
When their massive asset bubble popped in the late 1980s, the country got trapped in a deflationary spiral.
The Bank of Japan's response? Slash rates to zero, then negative, then start buying so many government bonds they now own over 50% of the entire market.
For years, this let Japan borrow essentially for free. That era is ending!
Why This Matters for the Dollar
Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio sits at 260%—the highest of any developed nation. A full 25% of their annual budget goes just to servicing that debt. With Japanese 30-year bond yields now hitting all-time highs, the math is getting ugly fast.
Here's where it gets serious for American investors: Japan owns over $1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, making them America's largest foreign debt holder. If they need to defend the collapsing yen, they have two options—both bad:
1. Defend the yen: Sell U.S. dollars and buy yen. But to get those dollars, they'd need to dump Treasuries first—spiking U.S. yields and borrowing costs for everyone.
2. Do nothing: Watch their currency and bond market collapse, triggering a massive carry trade unwind that ripples through global markets.
Reports have already emerged of coordinated "rate checks" between Japanese authorities and possibly the New York Fed.
If the U.S. steps in to stabilize the yen through coordinated dollar selling—something that's happened before (look up the Plaza Accord of 1985)—it would mean deliberate dollar weakness ahead.
And if that happens, certain assets are positioned to benefit enormously!
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