| The Federal Reserve kept borrowing costs on hold after its meeting this week, but rates might be the only thing steady at the central bank. Enda Curran writes today about the possible personnel changes ahead. Plus: Sanctioned vessels and high-seas pursuits put tanker trackers to work. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. The Federal Reserve is about to hit peak palace intrigue. After months of speculation on who will run the central bank for the next four years, the nomination for the new Fed chair is on the horizon. It's not yet clear who that will be, and expectations for the exact timing of an announcement have continued to slip. President Donald Trump last week told reporters (again) that he has a pick in mind. "I'd say we're down to three, but we're down to two. And I probably can tell you we're down to maybe one in my mind," Trump said then. Today, at a cabinet meeting, he said the announcement will come next week. The shortlist includes National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Yet the nomination for chair is only one part of the story. Subplots include an unprecedented Department of Justice investigation into allegations of overspending on the Fed's headquarters renovation in Washington. How that plays out will influence whether Jerome Powell exercises his right to stay on the Fed's board until January 2028, even though his term as chair will end in May. Powell was tight-lipped on that question during his news conference on Wednesday, indicating to reporters he has no plans to announce his intentions just yet. At the same time, Fed watchers are awaiting the outcome of a US Supreme Court appeal by Governor Lisa Cook against Trump's attempt to fire her over disputed allegations of mortgage fraud.  Stephen Miran. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg Keep an eye, too, on Governor Stephen Miran, who joined the Fed's board only in September and whose term ends this month. On leave from his White House role advising Trump on the economy, Miran has been an outlier in calling for steep interest-rate cuts and has dissented at every policy meeting since he joined. Miran can stay on the board until a replacement for his seat is nominated and confirmed, or he is nominated for a new term himself. If Miran wants to stay, he will need Powell to vacate his seat so Trump can fill it with the new Fed chair. Otherwise, Miran will need to give way to allow the chair to join. As if all that weren't enough, remember that Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina—who holds a key vote on the committee that confirms Fed nominees—has promised to oppose any nomination until the Justice Department probe of the Fed is fully resolved, potentially opening a scenario where it takes months before we get clarity on both personnel and policy. For Fed watchers who are more normally attuned to slicing and dicing economic data and parsing policy speeches, the rolling events at the central bank have been one shock after another. That roller coaster may have another few loops to go. | 
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