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One of the biggest names in gold recently added millions of shares of a little-known U.S. gold miner.
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Can AI Defense Contracts Push Palantir Shares Higher?
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 8/19/2025.
Key Points
- Palantir’s government contracts grow 53% YOY, fueled by DoD and DHS programs.
- Commercial revenue now makes up 44% of total, growing faster than government business.
- Technical outlook shows support around $168–169, with potential upside to $200.
Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) continues to delight shareholders and confound critics alike.
Over the past three years, Palantir has delivered:
- Revenue growth of over 90%
- Net income growth exceeding 216%
- Operating income expansion of more than 220%
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These metrics underpin the bulls' case for Palantir's premium valuation and robust stock performance. One of its largest customers is the U.S. government—particularly the Department of Defense (DoD).
Initially, much of this revenue came from pilot or "proof of concept" contracts. But with the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) demand over the last three years, Palantir's AIP platform has become an entrenched incumbent. Today, multiple branches of the U.S. military deploy AIP under multi-year agreements—yet this may still undersell the company's growth runway.
Leaning Into a More Efficient Pentagon
Critics often point to delays in government programs, as seen last week when BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) reported a $32.5 million year-over-year revenue decline and cut full-year guidance due to U.S. Army contract disruptions. By contrast, Palantir posted 53% year-over-year growth in its government segment, underscoring why investors remain optimistic.
The recently passed "One Big Beautiful Bill" boosts the DoD budget to over $900 billion, including $150 billion earmarked for disruptive defense technologies. When Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding is added, that figure climbs to $320 billion—covering significant contracts with DHS divisions like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Palantir's cloud-based law enforcement platform has made it a go-to provider for DHS.
That incumbent position was cemented when the U.S. Army consolidated 75 separate awards into a single $10 billion contract with Palantir. While skeptics note this isn't "new" revenue, removing overlapping contract fees should enhance the company's bottom‐line growth over the life of the award.
Commercial Growth: Palantir's Next Frontier
By the end of the decade, Palantir could generate more revenue from commercial clients than from government contracts. In its August earnings report, commercial revenue accounted for 44% of the total (41% domestically). That proportion is significantly higher than in prior years—and the commercial segment is growing faster than the government business.
The Path to $200 May Take Time
PLTR stock has been among the hottest technology names since late 2024. Although it dropped roughly 40% in early 2025, that pullback became a solid buying opportunity. Today, the stock finds support around its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) near $168.50.
As the market enters its typically weakest month, the MACD line sits just above its signal, indicating waning momentum and suggesting a possible near-term pullback. Investors eyeing a dip can watch these support levels:
- $168–169: 20-day SMA zone; strong short-term support
- $160–162: July–August 2025 consolidation zone
- $150–152: March–June 2025 breakout area; secondary support on a deeper pullback
Many bulls have set a "large‐number" target of $200—a view supported by Dan Ives of Wedbush. In the meantime, a move toward $190, which would establish a new all‐time high, may be enough to draw in additional buyers.
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