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Meta Slips as Oracle Surges: ORCL's AI Outlook Bearish for Meta?
Written by Leo Miller. Published 9/17/2025.
Key Points
- Oracle saw one of the market's most remarkable surges ever on Sept. 10 after the company released an incredible AI outlook.
- However, shares of key hyperscalers like Meta Platforms fell on the same day.
- Will increased spending going to Oracle be bearish for Meta, and what important metrics should investors pay attention to going forward?
Tech giant Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) recently issued its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, and while the company missed sales and adjusted EPS estimates, its outlook stole the show. Oracle now expects its cloud infrastructure revenue to grow to $144 billion by fiscal 2030, up from just $18 billion in fiscal 2026.
That represents a $126 billion jump—a compound annual growth rate north of 68%.
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Click here now to see how AI is coming to life.Many interpreted Oracle's forecast as validation of the ongoing AI boom, suggesting enterprises will continue investing heavily in artificial intelligence.
However, not all AI-focused stocks rose on Oracle's bullish guidance. Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) slid 1.8% on Sept. 10, Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) fell 3.3%, and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) dipped about 0.2%.
Below, we explore why investors reacted this way, focusing on Meta. Is Oracle's staggering cloud growth outlook bearish, bullish, or a bit of both for Meta?
Oracle's Outlook Means Higher Costs for Meta and Other Hyperscalers
Oracle's cloud infrastructure arm builds data centers equipped with advanced chips, networking, cooling systems and power—and then rents that computing capacity to customers, many of which run AI workloads.
Hyperscalers like Meta, Amazon and Google drive much of Oracle's cloud revenue. So projecting $144 billion by 2030 implies billions in additional spending—and margin pressure—for these AI leaders.
It's no surprise, then, that their shares dipped on Oracle's forecast. Notably, Oracle has indicated that Meta is one of its key AI cloud customers, using its infrastructure to train Meta's LLaMA models.
Still, Meta clearly benefits from the partnership.
Meta's Two-Pronged Infrastructure Strategy
Meta has emerged as one of AI's biggest backers, seeking to boost ad targeting on Facebook and Instagram and develop AI glasses that could rival smartphones. To train its models, it needs substantial computing power.
Meta has chosen a hybrid approach: it invests billions in its own data centers while also renting capacity from Oracle.
This strategy offers several advantages. Building proprietary data centers reduces Meta's reliance on Oracle, guarding against potential price hikes if demand outstrips supply. Meanwhile, tapping Oracle's cloud curbs Meta's capital expenditures, allowing the company to scale compute power without overshooting its CapEx targets.
It also lets Meta focus on its core strength—driving value in advertising and smart devices—instead of managing AI infrastructure.
Meta's Expense Guidance: The Key to 2026
Oracle's forecasts point to rising AI spending across the industry, but whether that trend is bullish or bearish for Meta hinges on Meta's own results and guidance.
Meta shattered expectations in Q2 2025, validating its multi-billion-dollar AI investment. To keep investors comfortable, it must sustain that momentum.
Most importantly, Meta's CapEx and total operating expense outlook for fiscal 2026 will be closely watched. Meta sees total expenses rising 20%–24% this year, with an acceleration into 2026.
The market will be asking: How steep will that acceleration be, and can Meta also ramp revenue growth fast enough to protect its margins?
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