The "theater" of this seven-day trade negotiation window … why Luke is optimistic that deals will get done … oil is cratering … two ways to trade today's market We're in a critical seven-day period.
By this Wednesday, this trade war could either resolve (or be showing green shoots) or ratchet higher to an even more painful level.
To unpack this, we're going to our hypergrowth expert Luke Lango.
Last week, in his Daily Notes in Innovation Investor, Luke detailed President Trump's new tariffs, along with the market meltdown that's still roiling stocks as I write Monday.
But Luke notes that there are real, tactical reasons to believe that this is not the beginning of a full-blown trade war, but rather the high-stakes opening move in a negotiation strategy.
Here's Luke: Immediately after [Trump's] announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was back on the mic, repeating what has now become a key talking point:
"These tariffs are a cap—not a floor. Countries can negotiate down from them."
That line matters.
It confirms what we suspected all along: these tariffs are leverage, not dogma. They are meant to force other countries to the table, to get them to make concessions, and ultimately, to allow Trump to declare victory and roll them back.
Bessent's language was no accident. It was a signal: the White House wants deals. And these tariffs are the stick meant to get them.
What's happening in this "seven-day window" ... This relates to the timing of Trump's tariffs.
While his blanket 10% tariff went into effect on Saturday, the higher, country-specific tariffs don't take effect until Wednesday – seven days after Trump's announcement last week.
Back to Luke: That's a seven-day window—a deliberate buffer zone designed for one thing: negotiation.
This is classic Trump. Create chaos. Shock the system. Then invite world leaders to call him, make concessions, and give him the chance to say, "We made a great deal. We're going to roll back the tariffs. Everyone wins."
It's not policy. It's theater. And the market needs to understand the distinction.
To Luke's point, last Friday, news broke that Trump was speaking with a Vietnamese official about a potential agreement to reduce tariffs.
Nike, which manufacturers about 25% of its footwear in Vietnam, went from roughly "down 5%" to "up 6%" in less than two hours.
This is a great example of what can happen if/when tariff news "theater" turns positive. We're looking at the potential for meteoric gains.
This morning brought another example.
As I'll show you below, when a rumor swirled on the trading floor that President Trump had paused tariffs, the Nasdaq went from "down 5%" to "up more than 4%" in a matter of minutes...
However, when the White House dismissed the idea of a pause as "Fake news," the gains evaporated.
But bullish spirits quickly returned, and tech stocks re-reversed (to climb higher) shortly thereafter...only to crash again...
Frankly, I'm seasick writing this, and who knows where we'll end the day... 
Luke remains optimistic that "deals" and a stock market resurgence will be the outcome His rationale is simple: Foreign countries can't afford a trade war.
Luke cites Vietnam. Its economy is built on export-led growth. A 46% tariff is a death sentence for their supply chain model.
Even for developed countries, Trump's tariffs would be an economic wrecking ball. The 20% tariff on the European Union would likely be the final shove, sending the region into a recession.
Back to Luke: This is why we believe countries will play ball—because the cost of not doing so is simply too high.
This isn't the start of a global economic divorce. It's the start of a speed-run of trade negotiations, with every country trying to de-escalate before April 9th hits and the pain becomes real.
The next seven days are critical.
We'll be monitoring. You'll get all the latest updates here in the Digest. Recommended Link | | We may be in the midst of the biggest market disruption in modern history, and its impact on Americans is already in motion. The 1% are about to exploit a massive “transfer of wealth” at the cost of your own personal savings. Depending on how you prepare, this tipping point could either be a grave danger or an incredible opportunity. Here’s what you need to know. |  | |
So, how is Luke suggesting investors respond? Cautiously.
At the end of last week, he offered four guidelines that I'll share in a moment.
But please note that we're in a fast-moving environment, and Luke's recommendations could change quickly; I'll keep you updated as best I can.
But for the moment, Luke recommends that investors: - Don't buy yet
- Trim lower conviction positions
- Hunker down in higher conviction positions
- Identify favorite buying opportunities
And here's his bottom line: History has shown us that the market's darkest moments often come right before its brightest breakthroughs.
Yes, the path ahead is bumpy—but we believe it leads somewhere far better than where we are today.
Policies will adjust. Negotiations will happen. Sanity will return. And when it does, those who held the line through the chaos will be the ones best positioned for the recovery.
Stocks aren't the only asset class getting destroyed Oil prices are collapsing.
On Friday, futures for U.S. West Texas intermediate crude (the U.S. oil benchmark) fell 7%, marking their lowest price since 2021. The selloff continued earlier today, as oil dropped below $60 (though it has rallied back above $60 as I write).
Behind the selloff is a one/two punch combo, hitting investors on both the supply and demand side.
Beginning with "demand," investors fear that Trump's tariffs will cause a global recession.
Whether it's consumers cancelling vacation plans (so, less demand for gasoline and jet fuel), or corporate planners projecting less demand for their products (oil is used in countless consumer goods), the trajectory for oil demand appears clear...
Down.
On the "supply" side, last Thursday, eight members of OPEC+ agreed to increase their combined output of crude oil by 411,000 barrels per day. The increase was more than markets had forecasted.
Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said the move was a message to the market: The countries that are driving this decision are saying, 'Look, everyone thinks we need $90 oil.
We want to show you we don't need higher prices. We're prepared to endure lower prices for a period.
The ripple effects of this double whammy On one hand, lower oil prices could be good for consumers.
Consumers will pay less to fill up the tank and could get a price break on related consumer goods manufactured with crude oil. This could also help offset a resurgence in inflation.
However, it's bad news for oil investors, as well as longer-term oil infrastructure buildout.
President Trump ran on the idea of "Drill, baby, drill." But no sane Big Oil exec is going to continue drilling, flooding the market with additional oil/gas inventory as prices plummet.
But don't take it from me. Two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its March Energy Survey. From an anonymous Big Oil executive: The threat of $50 oil prices by the administration has caused our firm to reduce its 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures.
"Drill, baby, drill" does not work with $50 per barrel oil.
Rigs will get dropped, employment in the oil industry will decrease, and U.S. oil production will decline as it did during COVID-19.
Now, eventually, we'll see oil prices climb again. After all, like it or not, the global economy runs on oil and that won't change anytime soon, even with the push toward green energy.
However, prices can remain lower (and drop further) for a while. So, for your existing oil plays, make sure you're braced for weakness, or have identified appropriate stop-losses.
And for the oil/gas stocks you've had your eye on, get ready – bargain prices could be on the way. Finally, if you're feeling bold... Last week, we highlighted two ways that courageous investors can step into the chaos and trade today.
The first comes from Andy and Landon Swan, the analysts behind our corporate partner, LikeFolio. They use consumer data to spot shifts and trends in spending behavior on Main Street before it becomes news on Wall Street.
Based on their insights, they place targeted bets during earnings season (which begins later this week when the Big Banks report).
Every Sunday during earnings season, Andy and Landon publish a comprehensive list of all the companies they track that are reporting earnings in the week ahead.
Each company is assigned an Earnings Score from -100 (bearish) to +100 (bullish), with scores near zero being neutral. They also put out a recommended trade that they hand-select from a variety of strategies that offer super short "risk windows" of just five days.
Here's Landon with the goal: Get in on Monday, get out by Friday, collect your cash, and enjoy that weekend.
You can learn more about their approach here. The second trading option from legendary investor Louis Navellier In this trading service Accelerated Profits, Louis zeroes in on high-growth stocks poised for rapid price appreciation. He uses his proprietary stock-rating system to focus on top-tier stocks exhibiting exceptional fundamentals and strong momentum.
The goal is to ride their bursts of bullish momentum, then get out of the market with quick profits, reducing exposure to potential downward volatility.
Even with today's chaotic market, Louis believes so strongly in his system that he's promising it can help you see at least $100,000 in payout opportunities over the next 12 months, without needing a huge chunk of money to get started.
For more about this trading system, and Louis' promise, just click here.
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg P.S. Don't miss this market update video from our experts!
Earlier today, our Editor-in-Chief and fellow Digest writer Luis Hernandez interviewed Louis Navellier, Eric Fry, and Luke Lango. They break down what's happening, where opportunities will likely emerge, and how investors should be responding in their own portfolios.
Whether you're feeling cautious or looking for opportunity, this is a must-watch. Just click here. |
No comments:
Post a Comment