Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Trump doesn’t want a bear market

Plus: The cost of firing federal experts
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President Donald Trump surprised everyone this afternoon when he pulled back on some of the most severe tariffs announced just a week ago on "Liberation Day." Businessweek editor Brad Stone provides some quick analysis. Plus: Mass government firings lead to a loss of expertise, and why everyone is still talking about Netflix's Adolescence

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It was 1:18 p.m. in Washington when Wall Street, Main Street and probably more than a few CEOs who'd volubly pledged their fealty to President Donald Trump breathed a loud, synchronized sigh of relief. "Based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States," Trump posted in his inimical way to Truth Social, his social media site, "I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

Citing "the lack of respect China has shown to the World's Markets," Trump promptly raised the tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%. Other countries that haven't crossed the president by contemplating retaliation against imports from the US are mostly spared, at least for now.

The bottom line: An all-out economically disastrous trade war was averted. Financial markets were immediately buoyed. As of 3:30 p.m., the Dow has jumped by 7.4%, the S&P 500 by 8.3%, and the Nasdaq by 11.5%. (As the news continues to ripple throughout the markets, follow our live blog for the latest.)

In the first Trump term, cabinet members like John Kelly, Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn were considered "adults in the room"—experienced executives and veteran policymakers who could counter the president's most destructive impulses. This time around, observers have noted that Trump's cabinet is packed with loyalists and have feared that there would be no such tripwire to avert his campaigns against real and perceived enemies at home and abroad.

On X today, Trump allies linked arms and sought to dispel that fear by gently conveying the notion that more seasoned voices had won out. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick posted: "[Secretary of the Treasury] Scott Bessent and I sat with the President while he wrote one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of his Presidency. The world is ready to work with President Trump to fix global trade, and China has chosen the opposite direction."

Investor Bill Ackman, one of the few Trump-supporting business leaders who publicly inveighed against the threatened tariffs, acknowledged that sanity had prevailed. "@SecScottBessent rocks!" he wrote on X. "Thank you on behalf of all Americans."

Although the Trump administration has inched away from the brink of trade war, it's still close enough to peer over the edge. The elevated 125% tariffs against China, over its refusal to negotiate with the US, could affect everything from iPhone components to solar panels and automobile parts. The 10% universal baseline rate will hurt American consumers still smarting from post-Covid-19 inflation and watching prices carefully.

But the sanguine market reaction to Trump's tariff retreat revealed a broad and palpable sense of relief. The pullback signaled to the markets and the wider world that the president is still susceptible to financial market dynamics and public perception, and that he doesn't like the phrase "bear market" next to his name. And it shows that perhaps business leaders are still being heard in the Oval Office—that in this administration, there are still a few seasoned voices in the room.

Related from the Everything Risk newsletterWe Are Still Heading Into a Bear Market

Market wrapStocks Surge Most Since 2020 on Trump Reprieve

In Brief

What's Being Lost in the DOGE Cuts

On April 1, the Trump administration purged thousands of employees across US health agencies. Those fortunate enough to be allowed into their offices and labs to collect personal belongings could be seen lugging boxes to their cars. Others learned they'd been terminated when they arrived for work to find their badges deactivated.

Among those who lost their jobs were people working on bird flu, brain research, chronic disease and reproductive health. The leaders who oversaw new drug reviews and tobacco policy were removed from their positions. A few days earlier, Peter Marks, the medical doctor who led the division of the Food and Drug Administration that approves vaccines, insulins and complex injectable medicines, resigned under pressure. "These are people with years of training and expertise, who have oftentimes taken a lower salary because they really believe in the idea of public service," says Jennifer Jones, director of the Center for Science and Democracy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a left-leaning advocacy group.

Mass firings such as the one at HHS have happened, or soon will, at almost every federal agency. President Donald Trump promised a smaller government. His lieutenants, led by Elon Musk, have moved with speed to deliver it for him. As the public's attention has shifted to Trump's tariffs, Musk and his underlings at the unofficial Department of Government Efficiency have continued their march through federal agencies. Sizable cuts are expected soon at the Department of Homeland Security.

Musk doesn't appear to spend much time scrutinizing org charts before churning out pink slips. Although he's sacked middle managers and functionaries who did jobs that might not be missed, he's also pushing out thousands of the government's best minds—recognized authorities across a wide range of disciplines who've helped to safeguard public health at home and abroad, set the global standard for science and research, and maintain the US's competitive advantage.

Wes Kosova in his latest World Stage column writes about the high cost of the cuts: Trump Is Firing the Wrong People, on Purpose

Photographer: Photo illustration by 731. Photos: Getty Images (3)

RELATED, ON ELON, INC.On a new episode of the podcast, the panel discusses whether Musk himself might be out of a job soon, as he may be taxing the patience of Trumpland. Listen and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, iHeart and the Bloomberg Terminal.

Social Media, Boys and Adolescence

Illustration: Ard Su for Bloomberg Businessweek

If you haven't watched the Netflix limited series Adolescence, you've probably heard people talking about it. It's a four-hour-long gut punch of a crime saga from the UK that dissects the complex social and family dynamics behind the murder of a teenage girl, Katie, by her high school classmate, Jamie. The show has been heralded for its spellbinding acting and the bold choice of using a single uninterrupted tracking shot in each episode. It's also a remarkable feat of good timing, emerging into the swirl of a conversation about kids and social media, and the vulnerability of boys to extremist online subcultures that promote a toxic brand of masculinity. Bloomberg Businessweek editors Brad Stone and Reyhan Harmanci talked with the show's co-creator Jack Thorne, who's found himself speaking as an authority on these issues and on the economic and cultural insecurity felt by many men in Western society. Here's a sample.

Businessweek: One of the big themes of the show is how absolutely foreign this generation's kids feel to their parents, who are trying to protect them. Probably every generation of adults has felt that way to an extent, but did you approach this show with the feeling that maybe technology has widened this gap, particularly for boys?

Jack Thorne: Absolutely. And there's loads of conversation that we can't understand, you know, the emojis, which I spent a long time talking to young people about, that sort of level of sophistication in terms of how they talk. You can imagine the 1960s felt like that, where you're just kind of going, there's one group of people that talk this way, and then there's another talking that way, and how are these people going to work out a way to communicate between themselves?

Keep reading: Why Adolescence Struck a Nerve

Raising Wealth

$11.5 billion
That's how much chicken-fingers entrepreneur Todd Graves is now worth after his restaurant chain Raising Cane's boosted sales by more than a third last year.

Let's Call It Off

"We are now reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast."
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists
Rescinding their forecast for a US recession after Trump announced the 90-day tariff pause.

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