Thursday, April 10, 2025

Supply Lines: Lingering clouds

President Donald Trump's reversal of higher tariffs for many key trading partners Wednesday eased a sense of dread in financial markets but
View in browser
Bloomberg

Supply Lines is now exclusively for Bloomberg.com subscribers. Your access will expire on May 10. If you'd like to continue receiving this newsletter, and gain unlimited digital access to all of Bloomberg.com, we invite you to subscribe now at the special rate of $149 for your first year (usually $299).

President Donald Trump's reversal of higher tariffs for many key trading partners Wednesday eased a sense of dread in financial markets but did little to address the cluelessness hanging over businesses wondering what abrupt change will come next.

"Whipsaw movements in country tariff rates will do nothing to reduce already record levels of trade-policy uncertainty," Bloomberg Economics economists Rana Sajedi, Maeva Cousin and Tom Orlik wrote in an analysis after the pause was announced. "Trump appears to consider uncertainty a positive for negotiations. For businesses and markets, it's a drag."

Trumponomics Podcast: Will Trump's Tariff War Permanently Damage America?

They noted that even after the temporary reprieve, the average US tariff rate is still rising to 24%, up almost 22 percentage points since Trump started his second term. Their research is featured in a Bloomberg story today about the sand in the gears of the global economy thanks to trade uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Trump walloped Chinese imports with an even higher tariff — 125%. Beijing sounded willing to negotiate but not under such duress.

Before Trump's now-delayed reciprocal tariffs were to take effect, there was a broader paralysis hitting global supply chains.

Haas Automation, the largest machine tool builder in the western world, said earlier this week it was reducing production and eliminating overtime for the 1,700 workers at its manufacturing plant north of Los Angeles because of a "dramatic decrease in demand for our machine tools from both domestic and foreign customers."

Bloomberg Tracker: Every Trump Tariff and Its Economic Effect

"The 'wait and see' approach is one that is now playing out across millions of shipments scheduled each month," said Kyle Henderson, Vizion's CEO.

Related Reading:

Brendan Murray in London

Bloomberg's tariff tracker follows all the twists and turns of global trade wars. Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Trade headwinds | The German economy won't see meaningful growth this year and Trump's tariff policies threaten an even bleaker outcome, according to the country's leading research institutes. Gross domestic product will only increase 0.1% in 2025 following two years of contraction, less than the 0.8% predicted in September, they said in a collective outlook issued twice a year. For 2026, they predict 1.3% expansion, the same as before. 

Today's Must Reads

  • The European Union may delay the implementation of its counter tariffs against the US over the 25% duties Trump imposed last month on the bloc's steel and aluminum exports.
  • Vietnam and the US agreed to start negotiations on a "reciprocal" trade deal, with the breakthrough coming just hours after Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs.
  • Taiwan is planning a surge in US purchases over the next decade that would triple the share of American liquefied natural gas in the island's mix.
  • Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said the US decision to pause a round of global tariffs can serve as a way to open "a door to negotiation" and therefore could lead to an agreement.
  • China announced it has discovered new deposits of high-purity quartz, a mineral with a small but crucial role in the production of semiconductors and solar panels.
  • African nations and the US will hold talks in June or July on a trade pact that provides duty-free access to the world's largest economy, South African Trade Minister Parks Tau said, adding it will be hard to salvage the arrangement that tariffs superseded last week. 
  • Investors are advised to stay calm, avoid knee-jerk reactions, and maintain a diversified portfolio with a long-term perspective amidst the market volatility caused by the tariff war.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • The biggest winners in Trump's tariff reversal are likely to be other economies in Asia — with Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and India now facing a smaller tariff hit, according to a new report from Bloomberg Economics.
  • The offshore yuan may decline at a faster pace than its onshore counterpart as traders speculate that China will engineer a weaker currency to blunt the effects of US tariffs.
  • For Bloomberg Economics trade analysis: BECO MODELS TRADE
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

Like Supply Lines?

Don't keep it to yourself. Colleagues and friends can sign up here. We also publish Economics Daily, a briefing on the latest in global economics.

For even more: Follow @economics on Twitter and subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and gain expert analysis from exclusive subscriber-only newsletters.

How are we doing? We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. Let our trade tsar know.

Follow Us

Like getting this newsletter? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

Want to sponsor this newsletter? Get in touch here.

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Supply Lines newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Unsubscribe
Bloomberg.com
Contact Us
Bloomberg L.P.
731 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10022
Ads Powered By Liveintent Ad Choices

No comments:

Post a Comment

Learn what actually moves markets (not noise)

...