| China lifted its long-held one-child policy almost a decade ago now as concerns shifted from having too many babies to not having enough. Years on however, the birth rate hasn't risen. The population in what was formerly the world's most-populous country has decreased for three consecutive years. And its marriage rate — a key predictor of future births in a country where few children are born out of wedlock — has also just hit its lowest level in almost half a century. The solution? Many local governments are rolling out cash incentives for families with new born babies. Such incentives were first launched in Sichuan province in 2021 and have since been expanded across the rest of the country. Last month, Hohhot, the regional capital of Inner Mongolia, made national headlines for its generous subsidies of 50,000 yuan ($6,840) to couples who have a second child and 100,000 yuan for a third or more. Some cities also provide subsidies for buying homes. Now the question is whether such cash incentives help, and if they do, how much? "These kind of baby bonuses may have a temporary and moderate effect when they are first introduced, but I don't expect anything long term." Shuang Chen, Assistant Professor at London School of Economics and Political Science, told me. "It only provides incentives for people who were planning to have babies anyway." Cash incentives work best if money is the biggest factor in a couple's decision on whether to have children or not. But Chen's research shows that for most Chinese couples the ideal number of children is below two, a unique challenge for the country in contrast to other low-fertility societies. Such preferences may be related to the country's one-child policy that was enforced between 1979 and 2015 during which time everyone was repeatedly told that fewer children is better. "People are used to small-sized family structures, and now you suddenly encourage them to have more kids. I don't think people's minds change in such a short time," said Xiujian Peng, senior research fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University. Few of my friends back home in China have more than one child, and money is only one of their concerns. There are many things for young parents to worry about. Will having children impact their careers, especially for women? Can they as parents provide enough to allow their children to stand out in a highly competitive society, from education to future jobs. Besides cash incentives, China has also rolled out other supportive policies, such as extended maternity leave and increased childcare services, in order to build a so-called "fertility-friendly" and "children-friendly" society. However, the implementation of these policies varies significantly depending on where you live. Many companies still continue to discriminate against women, often choosing not to hire or promote them in case they need to take maternity leave or can't work long hours due to family responsibilities. Other parts of Asia have also tried cash incentives and child-friendly policies with limited effect. In Japan, for example, the government started paying direct cash allowances for children in the early 1990s, but it doesn't work. Today, the average Japanese woman has just 1.2 children which is far below the number needed to maintain a stable population. South Korea has the world's lowest birth rate of 0.75 despite the government there spending hundreds of billions of US dollars over the years on programs to promote more babies. Chen said similarities among these countries that result in low birth rates is not simply cultural, but more institutional. Not every aspect of raising a child, such as tuition fees or cost of housing, comes down to a simple financial equation, Chen adds. There are many less-tangible costs, such as the impact of childcare on a person's career, especially if those responsibilities fall predominantly on women. Working overtime and workplace pressures also take a toll, according to Peng, who points out that many Asian countries have a much worse work-life balance than, for example, Australia, where Peng is based. "Everyone I met when I visited Beijing was so busy," Peng told me, "One child already means a lot to do, and they have no time or energy to have more." | 
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