Monday, March 24, 2025

What to expect from the budget

Good morning everyone, it's Ben here on a warm autumn morning in Sydney, here's what's making news today:Today's must-reads:• Chalmers to ha
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Good morning everyone, it's Ben here on a warm autumn morning in Sydney, here's what's making news today:

Today's must-reads:
• Chalmers to hand down pre-election budget
• James Hardie options traded ahead of deal
• Gold Fields rejects $2.1 billion take over offer

What's happening now

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will hand down his fourth budget on Tuesday night in Canberra, a pre-election pitch to voters which will reveal Australia's gross debt as a share of GDP is expected to peak almost 8% lower. Economists anticipate Chalmers will unveil a small boost in revenue compared to the fiscal update in December.

A block of bearish James Hardie options changed hands just before the Australian building-products producer said it would buy Chicago-based AZEK Co., sending its stock sinking. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows a block of 3,000 James Hardie A$43 puts expiring in May traded late Friday for A$14 million in notional value.

Goldman Sachs plans to spend more time with regulators regarding its private markets work as both profits and scrutiny across the space grow, the firm's head of asset management said. "We continue to think private markets are really attractive,"  global head of asset and wealth management Marc Nachmann said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Sydney on Monday.

Gold Road Resources rejected a private takeover offer from Gold Fields that valued the Australian miner at A$3.3 billion, with the South African company publicly announcing the proposal on Monday in a bid to win over shareholders.

Australia's labor market remains tight while the gap between the level of overall demand in the economy and its capacity to supply is narrowing, according to a Freedom of Information disclosure published by the Reserve Bank on Monday.

What happened overnight

Here's what my colleague, market strategist Mike "Willo" Wilson says happened while we were sleeping…

Stocks posted a tech-led jump as President Donald Trump said that he will announce tariffs on car imports in the coming days, but also floated the possibility that some nations will receive breaks from next week's "reciprocal" tariffs. The dollar held ground as US interest rates rose on the news. Locally today, the RBA participating in a fireside chat discussion is all that's slated. Aussie will probably continue to outperform the kiwi against the US dollar while these momentary good tariff vibes are in the air.

Trump's comments at the White House Monday sowed further confusion about his plans for a sweeping tariff announcement scheduled for April 2. The president said his tariff roll-out next Wednesday would focus on so-called reciprocal duties, while twice signaling trading partners would receive possible exemptions or reductions.

Trump during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington Photographer: Samuel Corum/Sipa

China's government appears in no rush to implement its budget, as Beijing preserves spending power to counter any damage inflicted by higher US tariffs. The combined expenditure in China's two main fiscal books rose 2.9% from the same period a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data released by the Ministry of Finance on Monday.

Jack Ma-backed Ant Group used Chinese-made semiconductors to develop techniques for training AI models that would cut costs by 20%, according to people familiar with the matter.

Chinese auto giant BYD's sales last year surpassed the $100 billion mark, leapfrogging Elon Musk's Tesla on revenue, as the Chinese auto giant wows consumers with a range of electric and hybrid cars packed with high-tech features.

"America First" as the guiding principle of foreign and economic policy does have a whiff of common sense. But few voters will see waging trade war as the common-sense way to go about it, writes Bloomberg Opinion's Clive Crook.

What to watch

All times Sydney:

  • 10:10 a.m. — RBA Assistant Gov. Brad Jones in fireside chat at payments conference
  •  7:30 p.m. — Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers his fourth budget speech in Canberra

One more thing...

Planning a trip to New York any time soon? If so, you could get a chance to see one of Australia's best and brightest talents on Broadway. Succession star Sarah Snook is breaking the rules of traditional theater to bring the Australian director Kip William's production of The Picture of Dorian Gray to life on the American stage. And that's just one of a number of ambitious productions you can expect to see in New York soon.

Sarah Snook in The Picture of Dorian Gray directed by Kip Williams Photographer: Marc Brenner
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