Friday, March 21, 2025

Trump’s green energy bargain bin

Green deals in a drill, baby, drill era
Bloomberg

Today's newsletter looks at the green bargains investors are finding in US President Donald Trump's "drill, baby, drill" era. You can also read the full version of this story on Bloomberg.com. For unlimited access to climate and energy news, please subscribe.

Trump's green energy bargain bin

By Will Mathis and Petra Sorge

Private infrastructure investors are snatching up green bargains in what's emerged as a buyer's market for wind, solar and battery projects.

The moves follow a a slump in clean-energy stocks, as US President Donald Trump's call for more fossil-fuel power generation has sent a chill through the sector and boosted Big Oil's plans to pivot back to core business.

"We think the fundamentals of renewable power are as strong as they've ever been," said Ignacio Paz-Ares, managing partner and deputy chief investment officer in the renewable power and transition group at Brookfield Asset Management. "Whenever we see a dislocation between what the market noise is and the fundamentals, that creates a very good opportunity for us to make acquisitions at very attractive entry prices."

Brookfield is among the asset managers betting that rising energy consumption and competitive economics of renewables will continue to drive demand for the sector.

In recent months Brookfield has done a series of big green deals, including a $1.7 billion transaction to buy an onshore renewables business from National Grid Plc, a £1.75 billion ($2.3 billion) stake purchase in UK offshore wind farms from Orsted A/S and a €6.1 billion ($6.6 billion) takeover of French developer Neoen SA, which owns solar, wind and energy storage assets. Paz-Ares said the firm is looking to buy more as it continues to raise money for its second energy transition fund.

The acquisition of Neoen was particularly good timing for Brookfield. The alternative asset manager and co-investors first bought a controlling stake in December for €39.85 a share, a third lower than Neoen's peak in early 2021.

A large battery storage facility in Australia. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

With all of these deals, Brookfield took assets from the public market into the private one. They highlight an opportune moment for investors with money to spend on the sector. A stock market bubble for all things green peaked in early 2021 and has now left valuations of publicly-traded clean energy companies around the lowest level in about five years.

"Stock prices haven't done well over last few years, but in the real economy clean is booming," said Aniket Shah, head of sustainability and transition strategy at Jefferies. "When sentiment around something is low, it's a good time to be a buyer."

Vincent Policard, co-head of European infrastructure at KKR & Co., which is looking to raise up to $7 billion for its first Global Climate fund, said the geopolitical factors putting pressure on valuations is "creating a compelling opportunity for long-term investors like us to lean in and support the energy transition."

At the same time, the retreat of some of Europe's biggest energy companies, BP Plc and Shell Plc, from the renewables sector has created opportunities in areas like offshore wind. BP made some of its hugest wind bets off the UK coasts a few years ago, driving up prices for projects.

Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, which recently closed its largest-ever renewables fund with €12 billion, said it's now starting to re-enter those waters.

"We stayed out of the big blood bloodbath in the North Sea," said Jakob Baruel Poulsen, managing partner and co-founder at CIP, but the firm recently bought a 480-megawatt Morecambe project off the western coast of the UK in the Irish Sea at "very attractive terms."

CIP said last month it was acquiring full control from its current owners Cobra and Flotation Energy. A press release on the announcement said Flotation Energy will remain involved after the transaction as a development partner to the project.

Beyond Europe, Baruel Poulsen said the new fund will invest in the US and Australia, markets where onshore renewables and batteries are set to play an increasing role in meeting demand in the power system.

Wind and solar are the fastest growing sources of electricity worldwide — at a time when energy consumption is set to soar with new demand sources such as data centers. In the US, annual wind farm additions are expected to increase by some 40% this year compared to 2024, according to BloombergNEF, while solar will see a 10% rise to a record 54.4 gigawatts of new capacity added.

Despite the challenging political situation in the US, "we continue to be bullish on the energy transition," Bianca Ziccarelli, managing director of Canada Pension Plan Investments, said on a panel at the Infrastructure Investor Global Summit in Berlin on Thursday. "We have been quite busy and we continue to find good opportunities in renewables."

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com. 

Wrong-way bets

$5 billion 
This is how much Tesla short-sellers lost in the days after Donald Trump was voted back into the White House. They now have a position equivalent to just 2.5% of the company's publicly traded shares, according to data compiled by S3 Partners.

Restoring balance

"When everybody is trying to chase the same projects at the same time and some of them have low-return thresholds because they've committed to a set of targets, that's probably not going to have a great outcome for investors in those projects."
Joe Mares
Portfolio manager at hedge fund manager Trium Capital 
While BP's recently announced pivot away from clean energy was lambasted by climate activists, Mares said it may ultimately help restore balance to the renewables sector.

More from Green

The head of the World Bank said he asked the lender's board to reverse its long-standing policy against funding nuclear power projects, saying the technology offers a green option for poor countries.

"The good news is the board has come together and said they're willing to discuss" the change, World Bank President Ajay Banga said Thursday at an event in Washington, adding that he expects the move to be included in a broader energy policy proposal expected in June 2026.

Banga's comments come at a time when governments and companies are eying more nuclear power for clean, stable sources of electricity. Forecast for power demand surged on the back of artificial intelligence use, and a boom in data centers has stoked even more interest in atomic energy. 

Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

China gets ready for its green bond sale. The government has mandated banks as it seeks to raise as much as 6 billion yuan ($830 million) from an inaugural sale of green bonds in London.

Slovenia moves to link debt costs to climate goals. The government approved the framework for a so-called sustainability-linked bond on Thursday, which will tie the interest rate the state pays to whether it meets pre-determined ESG targets.

UK carbon futures jumped on EU link news. A UK minister stated the UK government is "actively considering" a link ahead of the UK-EU summit on May 19, but did not prejudge the outcome of discussions.

Worth a listen

Water scarcity is no longer a distant threat: By 2030, fresh water demand is expected to outpace supply by 40%. The effects of water stress will be felt in industries from agriculture to e-commerce, putting up to $70 trillion of global GDP at risk, according to the World Resources Institute. Bloomberg Intelligence researcher Melanie Rua, the co-author of a new report on water scarcity, joins Zero to discuss just how much financial impact companies are already seeing as a result of this issue — and what measures they might take to mitigate it.

Listen now, and subscribe on Apple,  Spotify, or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

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  • CityLab Daily for top stories, ideas and solutions, from cities around the world
  • Tech In Depth for analysis and scoops about the business of technology

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