Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. US President Donald Trump is asking Vladimir Putin to sign up to a truce in Ukraine, saying "it takes two to tango." The Russian president may play hard to get. Ukraine's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire at talks with the US in Saudi Arabia yesterday moves the spotlight onto Russia to halt its three-year-long war. It will be difficult for Putin to refuse outright so early in the flowering US-Russia bromance. The Kremlin has enjoyed watching Trump browbeat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy while offering concessions to Russia's viewpoint and demanding little in return. WATCH: Bloomberg's Greg Sullivan reports on the US proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Yet a truce now is unwelcome for Moscow, whose forces are movingto push Ukrainian troops out of Russia's Kursk region and have the upper hand on the frontline in eastern Ukraine. It may argue any breathing space would allow Ukraine to rearm and reinforce its defenses. Putin's aides will have gamed out Russia's responses before Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff arrives in Moscow this week for a second meeting with the president. It may accept a truce unconditionally to curry favor with Trump, possibly to secure a date for a summit where Putin could influence his US counterpart directly. More likely, Putin may attach conditions to tilt pressure back onto Zelenskiy, perhaps by demanding elections in Ukraine during a cessation of hostilities, something the US has also floated. That would allow for Russian meddling to try to divide Ukraine internally. Uncertainty over who will monitor the truce would leave space for violations that the Kremlin could exploit to blame Kyiv for any breakdown. Reaching a ceasefire would be a big success for Trump, but maintaining it would be altogether harder. The question is whether Trump would continue pressing for a resolution or simply walk away. Russia, meanwhile, shows no sign of abandoning its ambition to dominate Ukraine. While he may accept Trump's invitation to the dance, Putin's still moving to a different tune. — Tony Halpin Putin in the Kremlin in May. Photographer: Sergei Bobylov/AFP/Getty Images |
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