Wednesday, March 12, 2025

The Trump and Putin tango

The US has proposed a ceasefire agreement for the war in Ukraine
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US President Donald Trump is asking Vladimir Putin to sign up to a truce in Ukraine, saying "it takes two to tango." The Russian president may play hard to get.

Ukraine's agreement to a 30-day ceasefire at talks with the US in Saudi Arabia yesterday moves the spotlight onto Russia to halt its three-year-long war.

It will be difficult for Putin to refuse outright so early in the flowering US-Russia bromance. The Kremlin has enjoyed watching Trump browbeat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy while offering concessions to Russia's viewpoint and demanding little in return.

WATCH: Bloomberg's Greg Sullivan reports on the US proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Yet a truce now is unwelcome for Moscow, whose forces are movingto push Ukrainian troops out of Russia's Kursk region and have the upper hand on the frontline in eastern Ukraine. It may argue any breathing space would allow Ukraine to rearm and reinforce its defenses.

Putin's aides will have gamed out Russia's responses before Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff arrives in Moscow this week for a second meeting with the president.

It may accept a truce unconditionally to curry favor with Trump, possibly to secure a date for a summit where Putin could influence his US counterpart directly.

More likely, Putin may attach conditions to tilt pressure back onto Zelenskiy, perhaps by demanding elections in Ukraine during a cessation of hostilities, something the US has also floated.

That would allow for Russian meddling to try to divide Ukraine internally. Uncertainty over who will monitor the truce would leave space for violations that the Kremlin could exploit to blame Kyiv for any breakdown.

Reaching a ceasefire would be a big success for Trump, but maintaining it would be altogether harder. The question is whether Trump would continue pressing for a resolution or simply walk away.

Russia, meanwhile, shows no sign of abandoning its ambition to dominate Ukraine.

While he may accept Trump's invitation to the dance, Putin's still moving to a different tune. — Tony Halpin

Putin in the Kremlin in May. Photographer: Sergei Bobylov/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

The Trump administration's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports came into force today, ratcheting up the global trade war with levies applied without exemptions worldwide on economic rivals as well as US allies. The move triggered an immediate reprisal from the European Union, while major Asian producers including South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia held off on retaliating.

Romania's constitutional court upheld a decision banning presidential frontrunner Călin Georgescu from May's election, risking a further confrontation with members of Trump's team, including Vice President JD Vance, who have criticized the case. The decision leaves Romania's far right with just days to come up with a new candidate to tap into the anti-establishment sentiment that Georgescu's candidacy brought into the open.

A man wearing a Romanian flag with a picture of Georgescu in Bucharest on Jan. 24. Photographer: Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Getty Images

Greenland's voters unexpectedly picked a party backing a slower approach to independence in a general election overshadowed by Trump's plans to take over the Arctic island. The social liberal Demokraatit party emerged as the biggest with 29.9% of the ballots, up more than 20 percentage points from four years ago, a government tally showed.

House Republicans passed legislation to keep the US government open past a Saturday shutdown deadline, daring moderate Democrats in the Senate to block the measure over objections it fails to constrain Elon Musk's cost-cutting crusade. Republican congressional leaders didn't negotiate with Democrats on the Trump-backed funding measure, which runs through Sept. 30.

Portugal's parliament toppled Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's center-right minority government in a confidence vote yesterday, likely leading the country to its third early election in just over three years. The premier requested the vote last week, saying he wanted to clarify whether his government had "all the conditions" to carry out its program after struggling to put an end to speculation about potential conflicts of interest related to a company owned by his family.

The Houthi militant group in Yemen warned it will resume attacks on Israeli ships for the first time in about two months after demanding the country end a ban on aid entering Gaza.

A screen grab from a video showing Houthi fighters' takeover of a ship in the Red Sea in November 2023. Photographer: Getty Images 

The most powerful political families in the Philippines are locked in a feud that threatens to derail one of Asia's economic growth stars.

Democratic Republic of Congo and M23 rebels will engage in direct negotiations in the coming days to end the conflict in the country's mineral-rich east, with Angola mediating the talks.

Pakistani security forces killed at least 27 people in an exchange of gunfire with insurgents who have been holding a train since yesterday in southwestern Balochistan province thought to have hundreds aboard.

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Chart of the Day

Each day over the last few weeks, anywhere from 20 to 30 migrants have boarded a boat off the Panamanian coast, setting off on a long journey. But, unlike in years past, they're not headed toward the US. They're headed south. That's as the Trump administration works to deliver on promises of mass deportation by rolling back protections for some migrants already in the US and threatening to cut funding from jurisdictions that don't cooperate with the efforts.

And Finally

Diego Garcia, a British island territory near the center of the Indian Ocean which hosts a US-UK military base, has largely flown under the radar up to now. Yet it's arguably as important to American global strategic interests as Panama or Greenland, allowing the US to operate missions from the Middle East to Asia. Now the island of clear-blue waters and pristine beaches finds itself at the center of a wider push by the US and India to counter China as Beijing builds out economic and military ties across the region.

The JinFei economic zone in Mauritius. Photographer: Paul Choy/Bloomberg

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