Supermarket crackdown

Good morning, it's Harry here in windy and wet Sydney to catch you up on the top items over the weekend as you start this weekToday's must-r

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Good morning, it's Harry here in windy and wet Sydney to catch you up on the top items over the weekend as you start this week Today's must-reads: • Supermarkets are under pressure • Labor in lead ahead of election • Flows into Australian tracking funds booming

What's happening now

Australian PM Anthony Albanese plans to fine grocery retailers for inflating prices or offering bogus discounts. The PM plans to introduce legislation if re-elected. In New Zealand, the government is mulling options to break up its supermarket duopoly, including attracting a new international entrant and forcing the separation of the  existing chains. Albanese has seen a jump in support for his government following the start of Australia's election campaign, boosting the center-left Labor party's chances of holding power in a vote scheduled for May 3. A Newspoll survey released by The Australian newspaper on Sunday found Albanese's government had pulled ahead of the Liberal-National opposition by 51% to 49%, its strongest result in nine months. Australia's central bank is set to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday as it waits out an election campaign and girds for the economic impact of a US-driven upheaval in global trade. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Reserve Bank's new monetary policy board will stand pat at 4.1%.  ASIC has slammed leaders of the country's pensions industry for overseeing a culture of poor customer service following a review into excessive delays in handling death benefit claims. Australia raised its forecast for commodity export income by 4% to A$387 billion ($243 billion) for 2025, but expects proceeds to drop to A$343 billion by 2030 due to lower global demand and falling prices. The PM said talks are ongoing with the US on levies imposed on Aussie steel and aluminum shipments. Flows into exchange-traded funds tracking Aussie equities are on track for their best quarter ever as investors pile into local shares amid a downturn in global markets. The inflows of about A$2.5 billion ($1.6 billion) in the first three months of 2025 are up about 19% from the end of 2024. UBS Group AG promoted its first wealth adviser based in Perth, the Swiss bank's latest move to attract more rich Australians. The region has become a focus, with the Swiss bank estimating it's home to more than 20 billionaires and around 100 people worth over $100 million.

What happened overnight

Here's what my colleague, market strategist Mike "Willo" Wilson says happened while we were sleeping… US stocks ended lower after data show that stagflation was rearing its ugly head as Trump's tariffs sink their teeth into the consumer. Focus will also be on the central bank's financial stability report Thursday, while New Zealand has a light sprinkling of second tier data. Aussie and kiwi will probably have to take their directional cues from offshore, again. Donald Trump threatened "secondary tariffs" on Russian oil if a ceasefire with Kyiv can't be reached. The US president told NBC that he's "pissed off" with Vladimir Putin after his Russian counterpart proposed temporarily putting Ukraine under UN-sponsored external governance. Ahead of April 2 tariffs, Trump said he "couldn't care less" if automakers hike prices as he expects buyers will switch to American-made cars.  Myanmar's rebels declared a two-week ceasefire in quake-hit areas as the death toll reached about 1,700. Another 3,400 people are injured and almost 300 are missing after Friday's 7.7-magnitude temblor, felt across the region. Thai stock trading will resume Monday.

What to watch

• 11:00 a.m.: Australia March Melbourne Institute Inflation

One more thing...

Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party was leading in opinion polls last year, but its  lead has evaporated with the election approaching in the wake of Donald Trump's actions and threats. The Canadian may need to adjust his message as the world second-guesses the Trump platform or else the now-favored Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, will take majority government. Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's Conservative Party, and wife Anaida during a campaign event in Mississauga, Ontario on Monday. Photographer: Arlyn McAdorey/Bloomberg

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