Thursday, March 20, 2025

Brussels Edition: Tensions over Ukraine

The EU is getting tripped up as it tries to bolster support to Ukraine
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Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The EU is getting tripped up as it tries to bolster support for Ukraine, a task only getting more urgent as US President Donald Trump pushes for a ceasefire. At yesterday's summit in Brussels, leaders tussled over ammunition deliveries to Kyiv. And a push by Spain to name a single lead envoy to Trump's peace talks prompted a sharp response from the EU's top diplomat. "What am I here for?" Kaja Kallas retorted, we're told. The tension is exacerbated by the EU's worries about getting sidelined in US talks with Russia and Ukraine — and about Trump pushing Kyiv to accept terms that make Europe uncomfortable. Still, the bloc put a mostly unified face on its plan for helping Ukraine, and didn't even bother trying to persuade Hungary to agree.

Gian Volpicelli

What's Happening

New Target | NATO wants European allies and Canada to increase their stocks of weaponry and equipment by about 30%, we're told, part of new military capability targets it aims to agree on in June. Reaching these new targets won't require much additional spending from the US, but the financial effort for the others will be massive.

No Boom | European countries have spent the last three years funneling their munitions into Ukraine. That helped Kyiv fight back against Russia's invasion, but has exhausted the continent's reserves of gunpowder, TNT and other crucial supplies. As the EU gears up for rearmament, producers of those materials are scrambling to increase output.

Tariff Assessment | Trump has been president for just over two months, but for international trade, it's felt much longer. As it starting getting more difficult to keep track of all the tariffs he's imposed — not to mention the ones he's threatening — Bloomberg is forecasting what these tariffs' likely economic effect will be.

Booze Reprieve | The EU is delaying its proposed 50% tariff on American whiskey until mid-April rather than April 1, aligning it with broader countermeasures against US steel and aluminum duties. The shift makes room for more talks with US officials — and is giving anxious distillers a glimmer of hope that the worst might not come to pass for them.

Coin Clash | European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said that the EU needs to launch its digital euro — which has been a work in progress since 2021 — to dampen usage of cryptocurrency tokens dubbed "stablecoins." Lane said an EU-issued electronic currency would limit the likelihood of foreign stablecoins catching on across the bloc.

Around Europe

Unleashing Cash | Lawmakers in the upper house of Germany's parliament are expected today to give final approval to Berlin's plan to unlock hundreds of billions of euros in debt-financed defense and infrastructure spending. An alliance of Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz's conservatives, the Social Democrats and the Greens pushed the bill through the lower house on Tuesday and together control enough Bundesrat votes to ensure its backing there too, barring any last-minute surprises.

Moving Out | UBS is looking at relocating its headquarters outside Switzerland if the country sticks to its plans to require the bank to hold an extra $25 billion in capital, we're told. Bank executives now believe the proposed rules are so onerous that they would make UBS uncompetitive relative to global rivals. 

Green Deals | With fossil-fuel enthusiast Trump back in power, clean-tech stocks have plummeted and Big Oil is pivoting back to core business. That's helping create a buyers' market for wind, solar and battery projects. Private infrastructure investors are snatching up green bargains, confident that rising energy consumption and competitive economics of renewables will continue to drive demand for the sector.

Money Talk | In late February Ukrainian officials received a delegation of 16 foreign investors in Kyiv, a first-of-its kind meeting since Russia invaded. Attendees included representatives from the country's creditors and multinational firms — both seen by Kyiv as instrumental to its reconstruction plans.

Flight Disruption | London's Heathrow airport will be shut all day today after a nearby fire caused a significant power outage, throwing one of the world's busiest airports and the travel plans of hundreds of thousands of people into chaos.

Chart of the Day

The ECB can't make firm commitments on rates due to elevated unpredictability over trade, according to President Christine Lagarde. While the process of disinflation remains on track, Lagarde said that the euro zone is particularly exposed to shifts in tariffs.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 9:15 a.m. Germany's Merz live interview at FAZ newspaper forum in Berlin
  • 3:45 p.m. Defense commissioner Andrius Kubilius delivers speech on defense white paper in Berlin
  • EU industry chief Stephane Sejourne meets Mistral AI CEO in Paris 

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