Brussels Edition: Putin's response

A 30-day ceasefire agreement proposed by the US and accepted by Ukraine earlier this week now hinges on Russia.

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Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. A 30-day ceasefire agreement proposed by the US and accepted by Ukraine earlier this week now hinges on Russia. While President Vladimir Putin is likely to eventually agree to a truce, there is concern that he may drag his feet or attach conditions too difficult for Ukraine and its European allies to accept. Donald Trump seems to be pushing for a truce to come into effect as soon as possible, but it's unclear what leverage he might be able to exert over Putin. High-level talks have taken place between US and Russian officials, and Trump has said he plans to speak with Putin in the near future. Meanwhile, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for "silence" on the front line.  — Michal Kubala

What's Happening

Hitting Back | Donald Trump has vowed to respond to EU tariffs targeting politically sensitive American goods, which themselves were imposed in response to US tariffs on metals. The bloc continues to say that it's open to negotiations, which, if the US agrees, would be led by trade chief Maros Sefcovic. Here's how European firms are reacting to the tariffs.  Looming Threat | Talk quickly turned to trade during Donald Trump's St. Patrick's Day meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin. Despite some pointed comments — including Trump's statement that he would have levied a 200% tariff on Ireland to prevent pharmaceuticals giants from moving there — the tone remained light. Nevertheless, as the headquarters of major technology and pharmaceutical companies, Ireland is particularly vulnerable to trade threats.  Dampened Hopes | Once the EU's best hope for domestic battery production, Northvolt looks to be out of juice. The electric vehicle battery manufacturer filed for bankruptcy in its home country of Sweden after a series of operational blunders. It will now see its business and assets sold, although Northvolt Germany and Northvolt North America are not filing for bankruptcy. Harder Job | Global trade fragmentation and Europe's defense spending could make it harder to keep inflation stable, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a conference in Frankfurt. While the bank's officials are confident that inflation will return to a 2% target, they are investigating how to respond to concerns that shocks could become larger and more persistent.

Around Europe

Historic Challenge | A lot is resting on the outcome of today's special Bundestag session, in which German lawmakers will debate whether to unlock hundreds of billions of euros for infrastructure and the military. But its not clear yet whether decades of policy can be easily undone. Friedrich Merz's pending chancellorship is facing a litmus test before it even starts.  Risky Wager | Trump's strong push for a ceasefire in Ukraine is leading brokers to bet on Russia's return to global financial markets. But this is a double-edged sword: it could either translate into lucrative financial opportunities or brokers could be left in the cold should war erupt again or sanctions simply not be lifted.  Confident Player | As the US reconsiders its relationship to the EU, Turkey is stepping up its diplomatic game. Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his desire to join the EU and we're told Turkish troops could join a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine in a sign that the country wants closer economic and defense cooperation with Europe.  Opts Not to Respond | The UK reaffirmed its commitment to US trade talks as British exports were swept up in Trump's global steel and aluminum tariffs, breaking with the EU and its decision to retaliate immediately.

Chart of the Day

Bloomberg After four days of market declines, European stocks enjoyed a bounceback yesterday fueled by cautious optimism over Ukraine accepting a ceasefire proposal brokered by the US. The gains outweighed EU countermeasures against American metals tariffs and a slight dip in defense stocks. Still, investors remain worried about the continent's prospects for economic growth.

Today's Agenda

All times CET 10:25 a.m. Enlargement commissioner Marta Kos holds joint press conference with Albanian prime minister Edi Rama in Tirana NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets US President Donald Trump Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa take part in EU-South Africa Summit in Cape Town, South Africa EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas takes part in G-7 foreign ministers meeting in Charlevoix, Canada

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