Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Brussels Edition: A partial ceasefire

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Ukraine and Russia agree
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Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Ukraine and Russia agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, following separate talks with the Trump administration in Riyadh this week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pledged to implement the maritime truce immediately, while Russia said it would do so only after sanctions are lifted on its banks and companies involved in agricultural exports. The Kremlin also said late yesterday that it had agreed with US negotiators on a list of energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine, which would also be part of a ceasefire deal. Meanwhile, the US's own intelligence community cautioned against excessive optimism in a fresh report, saying leaders in the two countries were more likely to continue the war than to agree to an "unsatisfying settlement."

Saim Saeed and Jorge Valero

What's Happening

German Talks | Friedrich Merz is facing pressure from his own Christian Democrats to take a harder line in coalition talks with the Social Democrats after caving in to rivals' demands to secure a landmark spending deal. Differences over tax and migration policy could still threaten the negotiations and Merz's bid to become Germany's next chancellor.

Checking Greenland | Vice President JD Vance said he'll join a US delegation to Greenland on Friday that already included his wife, Usha Vance, as well as National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Vance said he's going to "check out'' the Danish territory that President Donald Trump has pushed to annex, despite local opposition to the visit.

Steel Protection | The commission announced measures to limit the amount of steel that can be imported into the bloc tariff-free. It will reduce the so-called liberalization rate from 1% to 0.1% and stop allowing countries to rollover unused quotas for certain categories in a bid to protect the sector from rising imports.

Chip Plea | The US is preparing a controversial framework for controlling global artificial intelligence that would restrict the number of AI processors that can be exported to most nations, including the EU. A slew of governments and companies are trying to persuade the White House to loosen some of the regulations before the deadline for compliance in less than two months. 

Around Europe

Damage Control | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking steps to ensure protests across the country don't worsen and to contain a rout in stocks and bonds, even as he turns the screws on opponents. Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek's pledged to do "whatever it takes" to stabilize financial markets.

Creating Distance | The board of Italian tiremaker Pirelli will meet today to discuss whether to cut a Chinese investor's stake in the company following a request by Italian regulators. Separately, Italy has put the investor, Sinochem, under review for a potential breach of rules aimed at limiting China's influence over strategically important assets.

Tough Sheriff | Stefan Walter, Switzerland's chief financial regulator, has earned the nickname "The Sheriff" for a reason. In his first year on the job, Walter has taken action against seven banks and fintech firms, using his limited powers to the full. 

ECB Dependence | Poland is dependent on the decisions taken by the European Central Bank whether it joins the euro or not, according to Croatia's central bank Governor Boris Vujcic. He argued at an event in Warsaw that the country would benefit from lower credit costs if it ditched the zloty and adopted the euro.

Bold Bet | Amid the perceived malaise of European industry, Citigroup's Beata Manthey made the brave call of upgrading European stocks last year. An 11% rally later, Manthey was proved right, and she says there's more to come as US tariff announcements push investors to look for underperformers elsewhere.

Chart of the Day

Tesla sales have fallen in 10 of the last 12 months in Europe, and the Elon Musk-led company's 43% sales plunge in the first two months of 2025 deviates from a 31% rise in industrywide EV registrations. The figures show Tesla dug a deep hole for itself before the company started deliveries of the redesigned Model Y — its most popular vehicle — in the first week of March.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 1:30 p.m. EU antitrust chief Teresa Ribera speaks at the Solar Power Summit in Brussels
  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Fabiola Gianotti, the head of European physics lab CERN
  • Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas meets the CEOs of Air France, Lufthansa, and British Airways-owner IAG
  • EU digital chief Henna Virkkunen meets representatives of eBay and Thales

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