| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, an increasingly unpredictable hegemon of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. Kill Switch isn't the worst-rated movie in the history of Rotten Tomatoes; there are at least 100 contenders ahead of it. Nor is the worst-reviewed film centering on an evil corporate conspiracy — LL Cool J took care of that with the Rollerball sequel. It's not even the worst-rated movie in which a pilot must save the day — Nicolas Cage took care of that with Left Behind. But given Kill Switch's 9% favorable rating [1] on the Tomatometer, [2] I assumed that the credited director, Tim Smit, was simply an alternative version of the pseudonym filmmakers use to disavow their own work, Alan Smithee. But it turns out he's a real person. No hard feelings, Tim, I hope. This was the long way around to discussing another conspiracy theory involving pilots who may, someday, have to save the world. It also features a massive, secretive company: F-35 fighter-jet maker Lockheed Martin. And it, too, centers on a kill switch. As Breaking Defense reported on Tuesday: "The Pentagon today attempted to reassure its international partners in the F-35 program that there is no 'kill switch' on the stealth fighter jet that the US could use to render it ineffective — the latest signal that there are real concerns abroad about American stewardship of the program amid tensions with historical allies." In short: President Donald Trump is looking a lot like a kill switch. [3] "Can Europe rearm without America? It's a question that nobody was asking a few years ago, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted a €100 billion ($109 billion) German splurge on US-made F-35 fighter jets and Boeing Co. helicopters," writes Lionel Laurent. "Several countries are now reviewing F-35 orders, both because of optics and deeper concerns about reliance on an increasingly unpredictable hegemon." So, what's an abandoned partner to do? "The EU's ability to wield financial incentives should promote more orders for collaborative cross-border projects like the Eurofighter — a joint venture between Airbus, BAE Systems Plc and Leonardo SpA," suggests Lionel. "This all depends on whether Europe is truly willing to break with entrenched habits on budgets, procurement and politics. Germany is currently taking big steps to a landmark end to austerity, but it can't do everything alone." And, really, does anybody think the Europeans are going to come up with anything this cool?  As Berlin struggles with austerity, a Düsseldorf-based arms maker is on a war footing. "While high-tech drones capture most of the attention, the greatest loss of life since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 has been inflicted by old-school artillery shells," writes Chris Bryant. "Western governments are realizing the urgency of replenishing supplies — and Rheinmetall AG is reaping the rewards. The German group's very profitable ammunition business is key to understanding its ballooning €63 billion ($69 billion) valuation, which has more than doubled since the start of the year."  Still, no matter how many howitzer shells you churn out, eight decades of antimilitarism is hard to blast away. "Germany's neighbors are pleased to see Berlin shouldering more responsibility for their collective security. A huge step in that direction is new legislation that allows greater borrowing for defense spending, which passed through parliament on Tuesday," writes Katja Hoyer. "What will be harder is changing the German mindset. Dragging a country that was happy to leave its militaristic past behind into an age of defense-readiness will be a massive challenge." Trump is not making this challenge any easier: His lengthy phone chat with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday was not a conference call — the Europeans and Ukrainians themselves are flying blind. "This presents a sharp dilemma for both Ukraine and Europe," says Marc Champion. "As the American leader also declared himself a winner, they have to take on trust that his ultimate goals align with theirs. At a time when reasons for transatlantic trust are in short supply, both should assume the worst." Max Hastings assumes the worst and more. "Today, America's putative allies are uncertain whether the president is clinically unstable," he writes. "But they are surely absolutely convinced that his word can't be believed for more than a day; that his courses of action are irrational; and that he and his associates, JD Vance and Elon Musk, are strangers to truth and every convention of diplomacy, decency and courtesy." Meanwhile, an F-35 controversy is raging in America's potential 51st state: Canada, which has 88 planes on order at a price tag of $3.2 billion. Brand-new Prime Minister Mark Carney, understandably concerned about a Trumpian Canschluss, has a finger on his own kill switch: the country's F-35 fighter jet contract, which is now under review. It marks "a new front in the dispute between the two sides in response to tariffs and expansionist rhetoric," according to Thomas Seal of Bloomberg News. Speaking of that dispute: "Many of Trump's threats would hurt America just as much as Canada," warns Andreas Kluth. "His administration has said that it might kick Canada out of the Five Eyes, a group of countries which share intelligence that could save lives, including those of Americans. It has hinted that the US might pull out of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, in which Canada and the US jointly monitor the northern skies and seas for threats from Russia, China, North Korea or other bogeys." Which brings us back to that rumored kill switch. While it's hard to rule anything out in the age of Trump, it's unlikely he can simply press a red button and all the allies' superfighters will crash to the ground. Rather, as The Aviationist explains, "the F-35's reliance on US-provided software updates makes the weapon system really vulnerable. Software upgrades, managed by the U.S., ensure optimal performance and security, but withholding them would leave the aircraft operational, albeit with outdated capabilities." Basically, each F-35 is a $100 million Sonos. "Its pricey development partnerships with export customers and its real-time sharing of data serve as a geopolitical lock-in that trades autonomy for US protection," Lionel tells us. "Call it a switch or not, there's a lot of trust required that goes beyond the plane itself." And in Europe right now, trust is in shorter supply than artillery shells. Bonus Killer in Me Reading: What's the World Got in Store? - CBO 30-year budget outlook, March 27: DOGE Just Might Usher In New Era of Big Government — Kathryn Anne Edwards
- Senate hearing on DC airplane-helicopter crash, March 27: Flying Is Still Safe. Let's Keep It That Way — Thomas Black
- US personal income, March 28: The US Economic Outlook Is Becoming More Uncertain — Mohamed A. El-Erian
 | | | If you've never heard of the Five Eyes partnership mentioned by Andreas, do yourself a favor and read Karishma Vaswani's deep dive on the spies in the sky. "Knowledge is power, but deciding who to share it with can be the key to survival. Partners in the "Five Eyes" spy alliance, made up of the US, UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, may soon have to rethink their reliance on Washington, their most powerful member," Karishma writes. "Trump's America is warming ties with Russia in perplexing ways, while also temporarily suspending the provision of some intelligence to Ukraine, and instructing its British allies to do the same. Most of those privileges have since been reinstated, but that unpredictability is unsettling for other members of the Five Eyes group, which will now be questioning the wisdom of trusting the US with their most sensitive information." Meanwhile, the Pentagon is doing its best to deprive itself of sensitive information. "Amid the institutional carnage of the first two months of the Donald Trump's return to the presidency, few Americans will notice the demise of the Office of Net Assessment. That small outfit occupied a nearly windowless space in the Pentagon. Its work was known only to the nerdiest parts of the national security community," writes Hal Brands. "Yet ONA played a large role in helping the US win the Cold War, by sharpening its strategic instincts and making its behavior more lethally competitive. Shuttering the office is an act of self-harm at a moment when hot wars rage in the Europe and the Middle East and a new cold war, against China, is well underway." The Trump administration best beware: Sometimes a kill switch is a self-destruct button.  What could possibly go wrong? In the case of Kill Switch, pretty much everything. Notes: Please send PEZ dispensers and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. |
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