Crypto News: March 2025

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Today's Agenda

Will the Switch 2 be a flex?
What side hustle will be next?
A doom loop for the excheq.
Deals at the housing complex!

It's Almost Game Day

Is it bad to admit that I'm secretly looking forward to April 2? I am dying to find out all the details. The last time we did this it was what, 2017?? It feels like a lifetime ago. Sure, the price will probably be steeper this time around — that's how it goes with tariffs and trade wars! — but as a proud American consumer, I'm willing to pay anything to play Mario Kart.

Waiiit, did you think I was talking about President Trump's "Liberation Day"? No, no, no. I'm talking about the Nintendo Switch 2 release on Wednesday. Gearoid Reidy and Taylor Tyson say a lot is riding on the game console's success:

Full disclosure: I shamelessly purchased a Nintendo Switch with my Covid stimulus money and got way too in the weeds with Animal Crossing's "stalk market." I have no regrets!!! Nintendo makes a great product and as Gearoid and Taylor say, "the company has a moat in the games industry that almost no one can replicate."

It'd be a shame if the empire went downhill from here, they write: "Little has been disclosed about the Switch 2, beyond the name and familiar shape, which looks a lot like the original machine. In the absence of a new hardware innovation or a new way of playing, like motion controls, is sticking a '2' at the end enough for the next Switch? Can it balance offering a familiar product with gamers' desire for new experiences?"

Getting a bunch of people like me to toss their perfectly fine albeit "old" Switch in a junk drawer full of forgotten phone cords, a Nikon Coolpix and a defunct iPad is going to be difficult, and Nintendo's track-record on that isn't pristine. "It must persuade [Nintendo Music] subscribers, and the millions of existing Switch users, to buy the new machine, while enticing younger generations to play for the first time," they write.

"A strong library of games will be essential to avoid repeating a past mistake: its long history of failing to follow up one hit device with another." What new games might we get? Mario Kart 9, A 3D Mario title, Zelda remasters — Twilight Princess, anyone?? — and Metroid Prime 4 are all being floated. April 2 can't come soon enough.

God's Country

I can't claim to know much about country singer Morgan Wallen other than the fact that Bobby Knight would have loved him and he's great at unintentionally making memes. Sure, performing on SNL is cool and all, but hightailing it out of Studio 8H before the credits roll and posting, "Get me to God's country," on your Instagram story with a picture of your private jet is hilarious! SNL should really hire him to write jokes.

But what is God's country, really?

Is it the Cheesecake Factory across the street from Buc-ee's? Is it an armed waitress handing you a burger and fries? Is it the Ford F-150 Robert Burgess says you might not be able to afford after tariffs? A president that Nia-Malika Henderson says wants to bulldoze over the 22nd Amendment? The pile of public debt Clive Crook claims the Fed can't ignore? A celebrity side-hustle that Tina Fey pokes fun of on Amy Poehler's podcast?

Perhaps it's all that and more. But that last one seems especially fitting, since Wallen recently opened a six-story bar in downtown Nashville that sells gigantic meatballs.

Have we hit Peak Celebrity Brand? MrBeast is a YouTuber, not Willy Wonka, and yet some dude on the sidewalk handed me six free Feastables peanut butter cups over the weekend. Meghan Markle is not revolutionizing the jam jar. Eric Trump certainly shouldn't be mining Bitcoin. And Jay-Z will make do without champagne if climate change destroys his precious grapes, which Lara Williams says could happen.

But Erin Lowry says some of these celebrities are "working in industries notorious for having a short or inconsistent shelf-life. This includes professions such as an athlete, actor and even an influencer. In these careers, striving to accumulate as much wealth as quickly as possible could be reasonable." Wallen might be fond of God's country, but the Bible doesn't pay for a PJ.

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A Trio of Terribleness

So, here are three female leaders doing controversial things in Europe.

France's Marine Le Pen was charged with embezzlement — on Eid, of all days! — and now she can't run for president in 2027 unless she pulls off an appeal.

Meanwhile in Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is proposing to give Ukraine NATO Article 5 guarantees without membership — a plan that Marc Champion says is "just crazy and clever enough to try."

And in the UK, Rosa Prince says Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has "effectively trapped herself in a doom loop, leaving so little wiggle room to meet her fiscal rules, with headroom identical (to two decimal points) to the fragile £9.93 billion ($12.85 billion) in October's budget that was soon blown off course, that she'll inevitably be forced to take even tougher measures within months." The gall!

Telltale Charts

I know we're getting wayyy too comfortable conversing about incest with colleagues — thanks, Mike White? — but there's still RULES at the office. Like: Don't be creepy with female colleagues! Primark's CEO Paul Marchant seems to have missed the memo. This morning, he was forced to resign after an investigation into his "alleged inappropriate behavior toward a woman in a social setting." The executive reshuffling arrives at an awkward time for the retailer, Andrea Felsted writes: "Although Primark has been one of the few European retailers to crack the US, the competitive environment is getting tougher."

I never thought I'd see a headline with the words "housing" and "bargain" again in my lifetime, but Conor Sen proved me wrong! Hell has frozen over, perhaps: "Builders and homeowners are demonstrating that they're more motivated to sell, giving potential buyers greater bargaining power this spring," he writes.

ICYMI

Altadena is rebuilding together.

Honeybee deaths are surging.

The gig economy's deactivation issue.

Bodies of missing US soldiers found in Lithuania.

Kickers

Snake sperm helps Jessica Simpson sing?

Steak fries are more controversial than ever.

Far-right matchmaking to repopulate the Earth.

Notes: Please send shoestring fries and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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マーケットで話題になったニュースをお届けします。一日を始めるにあたって押さえておきたい５本はこちら。

「国ベース」の関税発表へ

トランプ米大統領は４月２日にローズガーデンで行われるイベントで相互関税について発表する。ホワイトハウスのレビット報道官が記者団に明らかにした。発表は「国ベースの」関税に関するものだが、トランプ氏は別の機会にセクター別の関税を導入することにも注力しているという。関税率や対象国の詳細については語らなかったが、欧州連合（ＥＵ）や日本、インド、カナダの関税率の例を挙げ、そうした国・地域が新たな関税の対象であることを示唆した。レビット氏は「今こそ相互措置を導入する時であり、米国民にとって正しいことを行うために大統領が歴史的変革に踏み出す時だ」と述べた。

10％に下げで合意

ルノーと日産自動車はアライアンス契約の改定で合意し、相互出資の最低限比率を現行の15％から10％に引き下げると発表した。財務強化の圧力にさらされている日産はこれに伴い、保有するルノー株の最大３分の１の売却が可能になり、現在の評価額で約６億9000万ユーロ（約1120億円）を調達し得る。日産株36％を保有するルノーは、ライバル意識や相互不信の高まりを背景に、日産との提携関係の部分的な解消を進めている。一方、ルノー株の15％を保有する日産は、ルノーの電気自動車（ＥＶ）事業アンペアへの出資義務から解放される。

保有国債の入れ替え

日本生命保険の朝日智司社長は、日本銀行の利上げに伴う利回りの上昇（価格は下落）を受けて含み損が膨らんでいる保有国債について、損失を計上してもさらに入れ替えを進めたいとの考えを明らかにした。金利変動局面でも安定した運用利回りを確保する狙い。１日に社長に就任した朝日氏はインタビューで、円金利の「リスクマネジメントをもう少し強化していきたい」と強調。満期保有による償還を待たずとも、含み損を抱えた国内債券の適切な入れ替えなどにより「最終的な利回りが向上するようなポートフォリオが築けるよう対応していく」と述べた。

４月利下げは未定

欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）の複数当局者は、４月に利下げするかどうかをまだ決めかねている。事情に詳しい関係者が明らかにした。投資家の想定以上に同会合での議論は流動的であることが示唆された。トレーダーが織り込む４月のＥＣＢ追加利下げの確率は80％余り。一方で、ハト派からタカ派まで幅広い当局者がトランプ米大統領の通商政策や欧州の軍事支出拡大を巡る不確実性の高まりを背景に、利下げ休止を検討しているという。４月会合までまだ２週間半あり、当局者の考え方が変わることもあるとしている。

「大きな代償」

米政府効率化省（ＤＯＧＥ）を率いるイーロン・マスク氏は、トランプ政権での役割がＥＶ大手テスラの最高経営責任者（ＣＥＯ）というもう一つの仕事に「大きな代償を強いている」と認めた。政治的に活発になったマスク氏に対し米国内外で反発が起き、その圧力は世界的にテスラの業績や株価に及んでいる。テスラ株はトランプ氏が当選を果たした翌月の12月17日に付けた上場来最高値から46％下げている。