Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Puzzling out post-war Gaza

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. Donald Trump famously loves a win
View in browser
Bloomberg

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.

Donald Trump famously loves a winner and disdains a wasteful war. At the White House today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will cast himself as the former — and the now-suspended Gaza campaign as anything but the latter.

That Netanyahu is the first foreign guest of the reelected US president speaks volumes about the administration's pro-Israel tilt and respect for a premier who has wrested dramatic gains from what has spiraled into a multi-front conflict with Iranian proxies. 

But less sanguine Middle East leaders also have the ear of Trump, who yesterday described the current truce as a fragile "peace."

That's discordant for Israelis. Many see any arrangement that leaves Hamas in power in the Palestinian enclave as a recipe for a repeat of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered the war. Netanyahu's rightist coalition partners could mutiny.

So he'll want to reserve the right to resume Israel's Gaza offensive, while Trump will look to sound out other ideas for a regime change.

Those may include joint action to defang Iran and its nuclear program, or the forging of a landmark Israeli-Saudi normalization that would further sideline Hamas, which is designated a terrorist organization by the US and European Union.

American-Israeli hostage Keith Siegel is handed over to representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross by Hamas' military wing in Gaza City on Saturday. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg

In the interim, mediators will try to coax the Islamist faction into freeing more hostages — a potentially tall order if its very survival is at stake. 

Trump proposed the mass relocation of Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan while Gaza is rebuilt, and was vexed when Arab powers snubbed that idea. Israel will be wary about alienating security partners in Cairo and Amman. 

The myriad challenges represent a "puzzle" for the Oval Office meeting to try to solve, Danny Danon, Netanyahu's ambassador to the United Nations, told Israel's Army Radio.

"It's complicated. It's difficult," he said. "But there are two leaders here who know the issue well." — Dan Williams

Global Must Reads

China slapped tariffs on a range of US products and announced a probe into Google moments after Trump imposed a 10% duty on its goods, reigniting a trade war between the world's largest economies. Beijing will investigate the US tech giant for alleged antitrust violations. President Xi Jinping's response appeared carefully targeted to avoid major blowback on his nation's economy while showing Trump an ability to inflict damage on a range of fronts.

WATCH: Bloomberg's Minmin Low reports on China's announced tariffs on a range of US products.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer got a dramatic reminder of how much harder it will be to achieve his goal of a reset with the EU with Trump back in the White House. The US president's threat to sanction the bloc while likely sparing the UK may force the famously cautious Starmer to choose between trying to maintain close ties with Washington and rebuilding relations with Brussels.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou forced the adoption of a 2025 budget bill by bypassing the lower house of parliament yesterday, using a constitutional provision that will likely trigger a no-confidence vote. The far-left France Unbowed says it will file the motion, with a possible vote tomorrow. The Socialist leadership said it won't support the move, which — if party members follow the guidance — will keep the government from collapsing.  

Denmark is ready to allow the US to boost its presence in Greenland, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said as she seeks to curb an escalating diplomatic crisis with Trump over the world's largest island. The territory already hosts an American military base that monitors space and detects missile threats, and the US "can have more possibilities," Frederiksen told reporters in Brussels yesterday.

The village of Innaarsuit in Greenland in 2018. Photographer: Karl Petersen/AFP/Getty Images

Land ownership in South Africa remains an explosive issue decades after White-minority rule ended and Trump has added more fuel to the fire. The US leader pledged to halt all aid to the country following the adoption of a law that will make it easier for the state to expropriate land. South Africa's government and opposition parties said Trump has misunderstood the intention of the legislation. Read our explainer on the furor.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress in a letter that the US Agency for International Development may be subsumed into the State Department and abolished as a separate agency once his team completes a review of its practices.

The White House has invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to meet with Trump in Washington next week. Although the two leaders had warm relations during the first Trump administration, ties between their countries have come under strain. 

Romania must make clear to voters the pitfalls of ditching its transatlantic orientation as it seeks to fend off a far-right surge while bringing spending under control, Finance Minister Barna Tánczos said, taking aim at right-wing candidate Călin Georgescu ahead of a presidential election in May.

Trump said his administration wants an agreement with Ukraine for the war-torn country to offer access to its critical-mineral resources in return for aiding its defense against Russia. The US has been Ukraine's largest backer since Moscow's February 2022 invasion.

El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, told the US it's willing to accept convicted criminals of any nationality, including American citizens, as Washington seeks to ramp up deportations. Rubio, who is on a tour of Latin America, praised the offer as unprecedented without saying whether the Trump administration would accept it.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

Friedrich Merz, the conservative frontrunner in the German election, vowed to hold course on his disputed plan to limit migration and to restore growth in the ailing economy. With just 20 days to go, Merz is attempting to pivot back to the economy after his apparent willingness to accept votes from the far-right Alternative for Germany to tightening immigration rules triggered a wide-spread backlash last week. Not only did the legislation fail, but he was also accused of eroding the so-called firewall between the mainstream establishment and the AfD. 

And Finally

While US-led export controls on Russia have primarily targeted weapons components and high-end chips, a less threatening product shows just how hard it will be for Trump to squeeze Vladimir Putin's economy: Japanese grand pianos. Along with many other US allies, Japan barred the export of luxury goods to Russia a few months after the invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, wealthy Russians are still accessing high-end Japanese grand pianos through indirect routes, with dealers in Moscow and other cities advertising Yamaha and Kawai pianos.

Yamaha pianos. Photographer: Daniel Acker

More from Bloomberg

  • Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you
  • Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance
  • Check out our Bloomberg Investigates film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries
  • Next China for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it's going next
  • Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed
  • Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com.
Follow Us

Like getting this newsletter? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights.

Want to sponsor this newsletter? Get in touch here.

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Unsubscribe
Bloomberg.com
Contact Us
Bloomberg L.P.
731 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10022
Ads Powered By Liveintent Ad Choices

No comments:

Post a Comment

In Today’s Masters in Trading: Live – February 4, 2025

    February 4, 2025 VIDEO REMINDER In Today’s Masters in Trading: Live In Today’...