Thursday, February 6, 2025

Markets Daily: Embracing bond volatility

Stocks are little changed as a busy day for earnings gets under way. The lineup includes Hershey, ConocoPhillips and Eli Lilly before the be
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Markets Snapshot
S&P 500 Futures 6,090.75 +0.07%
Nasdaq 100 Futures 21,749.75 -0.06%
US 10-Year Treasury Yield 4.436% +0.020
China's CSI 300 Index 3,842.83 +1.26%
Bitcoin 98,675.94 +1.80%
Market data as of 06:25 am EST. View or Create your Watchlist
Market data may be delayed depending on provider agreements.

Five things you need to know

  • Stocks are little changed as a busy day for earnings gets under way. The lineup includes Hershey, ConocoPhillips and Eli Lilly before the bell and Amazon after the market closes.
  • Ford shares are sliding 4.7% in premarket trading. The carmaker says profit may fall by $2 billion or more this year on lower prices and costly new-model launches, adding to risks posed by potential steep new tariffs under Donald Trump.
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration's focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Fed's benchmark short-term rate. He repeated his view that expanding energy supply will help slow inflation. 
  • Arm Holdings is down 5%. The chip designer gave a cautious revenue forecast, adding to recent concern that spending on AI computing is slowing. 
  • Shares of Honeywell, whose businesses range from aerospace to specialty chemicals, are jumping this morning. The company announced it's splitting into three independent companies, confirming a scoop from Bloomberg News last month.

Bond opportunities

For all investors' handwringing over Donald Trump's unpredictability, it's worth keeping in mind that market volatility creates all sorts of opportunities — if an asset you're eyeing is too expensive, you may be just a Trump tweet away from a buying opportunity.

Just ask Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer at bond behemoth Pacific Investment Management Co.

"A little bit of volatility, a little bit of fear in markets, for us would likely be a good thing," he said in an interview. "Volatility usually means opportunity for active managers."

The Newport Beach, California-based asset manager is betting on five- to 10-year bonds, as they generate solid income, and are prepared to buy more if yields rise back toward 5%. Trump's policies have put traders on their heels and clouded the outlook for the Federal Reserve's next steps for monetary policy.

Ivascyn's $175 billion Income Fund has a lot of liquid investments, he says. "If we get a pullback in credit markets, we would look to reduce some of the high-quality stuff and then be more aggressive in the credit market, high-yield and loans," he says.

The fund has gained 1.3% this year, outpacing a 0.8% rise in the broad market index and beating 94% of rivals.

Pimco, with almost $2 trillion under management, is no run-of-the-mill firm. Under founder Bill Gross, it became the biggest name in fixed-income investing. While clients pulled assets after his departure a decade ago, his successors have steadied the ship. As you can read in today's Big Take, though, some at the firm now fear Pimco has lost its edge as it fails to keep up with the industrywide push into private assets. 

Pimco began this year making a case for owning Treasuries in the five- to 10-year zone as it saw an unpredictable policy agenda from the new White House burnishing the appeal of high-quality bonds compared with expensive equities and corporate debt. 

"You've got to be respectful of the uncertainty here," Ivascyn said, while being focused on staying "nimble and generate some pretty good returns."

"To the extent that there continues to be this uncertainty around policy that could impact economic fundamentals, we think the Fed's going to be on hold," Ivascyn said, and that's still good for owning longer-dated bonds as they yield more than the current cash rate, around 4.33%.  —Michael Mackenzie

This is just a slice of our global markets coverage. To unlock every story and stay on top of the stocks you care about with unlimited watchlists, become a Bloomberg.com subscriber.

On the move

  • Skyworks Solutions shares sink 28% in premarket trading. The supplier of semiconductor devices to Apple reported disappointing results amid increasing competition. At least three analysts cut their ratings on the stock. 

The great trade war of 2025

Is that it? Social media has had some fun with this week's tariff news, with plenty of memes along the lines of "Where were you in the Great 18 Hour Trade War of 2025?" and "I survived the Global Trade War 2/3/2025 – 2/3/2025." While it's too early to call an all-clear, the fallout in markets has so far been remarkably contained given the upheaval an unfettered trade conflict would cause.

Since Friday's close, you'd be in best shape if you were long gold. Of the key assets, it's up the most since then. The one lingering impact of this week's developments has been an increased demand for gold in a world likely to be shorter of dollar reserve assets.

If you were long the S&P 500, you're up 0.4% — not bad considering where you thought you might be by now, after reading the Mexico and Canada tariff headlines at the weekend. And if you were long the Nasdaq, you're doing even better.

The dollar, the most obvious beneficiary of trade tensions, is now lower since Friday. China's stock market reopened yesterday after a holiday, and traders were probably thankful. The piñata of headlines would likely have bounced the price up and down, and yet after the dust has settled, the CSI 300 has gained 0.7%. The Nikkei has taken it in the shins though, down 1.3%.

Trump has promised the EU is in his tariff sights next. The market is obviously pricing in a bit of bluster and a bit of potential deal-making, as the Euro Stoxx 50 is only down 0.3%.

It's premature to declare the conflict over – the social-media memes might quickly look out of date. But this year has shown, first with the targeted response to DeepSeek and now with tariffs, that the market is less indiscriminate in mini-panics. The question is: will it remain so resilient as the volley of convention-upending announcements from Pennsylvania Avenue continues unabated? With stocks losing their liquidity safety net, my money says no. —Simon White, macro strategist, Bloomberg Markets Live blog

Word from Wall Street

"The real risks will be something like DeepSeek that comes out of left field that changes people's thinking. By definition, we do not know what that is." 
Jim Chanos
Founder, Chanos & Co.
Click here to read more from his Bloomberg Television interview. 

One number to start your day...

$7.08
Wholesale cost for a dozen large eggs in the Midwest, a roughly sevenfold increase from two years ago. Click here to read more.

What else we're reading

World Inflation at Risk of Rekindling With Trump's Trade War
Bank of England Set for Third Rate Cut With Britain in Stagflation
Nissan Looking for New Partner as Honda Deal Set to Collapse
Brevan Howard Erases Most of 2024 Gains as Currency Bets Sour
ECB Is About to Drop a Big Clue on How Far It Will Cut Rates
France's Premier Passed a Budget But It's Unclear He Can Do More
Exiled From Goldman Sachs, a Fallen Star Finds His Next Act

Please share your thoughts on how we're doing and what we're missing. Contact us at marketsdaily@bloomberg.net.

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