Monday, January 6, 2025

When to expect a rate cut

Good morning, it's Amy in Melbourne with your Tuesday newsletter. We've woken to news Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign. Fi
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Good morning, it's Amy in Melbourne with your Tuesday newsletter. We've woken to news Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign. First, a roundup of local news.

Today's must-reads:
• When the Reserve Bank could cut rates 
• Beer and liquor stocks in Asia and Australia fall 
•  Insignia's latest suitor is CC Capital Partners

What's happening now

While almost all major economies — including Australia — should see monetary easing during the coming year, the pace is likely to slow. Bloomberg Economics projects its aggregate measure of advanced-world interest rates to drop just 72 basis points in 2025, less than it did in 2024. The New Year will likely mark the start of the RBA's long-awaited easing cycle, possibly as early as February.

Many of us use January for a health kick, and now there's another reason to consider your tipple. Asian and Australian alcoholic beverage stocks slid after the US Surgeon General outlined a link between drinking alcohol and the risk of cancer.  Treasury Wine Estates dipped 2.7% here, while Budweiser Brewing Company APAC slid 2.6% in Hong Kong. 

Summer holidays ended early for the board of Insignia Financial, one of our biggest wealth and superannuation managers. Insignia is mulling a takeover offer from CC Capital Partners worth A$2.9 billion, which trumps Bain Capital's quashed December bid. The latest offer is non-binding and may not result in a final proposal, Insignia said.  

We're well and truly in an election year. The Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced A$7.2 billion for an upgrade to the Bruce Highway in Queensland. It's fueled speculation the PM will call the election soon.

What happened overnight

A rally in the world's largest tech companies lifted stocks at the start of the first full trading week in 2025. The US dollar trimmed losses as President-elect Donald Trump said his tariff plan won't be scaled back. Australian stocks are set to open higher. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is resigning after almost a decade in the top job. Pressure had been building on Trudeau for months, which intensified after his finance minister stepped down last month over policy differences.

Justin Trudeau Photographer: David Kawai/Bloomberg

Hamas disclosed a list of 34 hostages it's willing to return to Israel in the first phase of a potential ceasefire in Gaza. The US wants to achieve a ceasefire before President Joe Biden leaves office in two weeks.

North Korea fired a ballistic missile Monday, raising tensions in the region as Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited South Korea. Blinken on Monday met with South Korea's Acting President Choi Sang-mok and expressed "complete trust" in his leadership.

Asia's middle class is starting to struggle after decades of growth, but the momentum is still behind rising aspirations, writes Bloomberg Opinion's Karishma Vaswani. 

The Australian nominees at this year's Golden Globes came away empty handed. Emilia PĂ©rez and The Brutalist won the top prizes in their respective comedy and drama categories. The Globes are one of the first events on the awards circuit that culminate with the Oscars on March 2.

(L-R) Adriana Paz, Edgar Ramrez, Selena Gomez, Jacques Audiard, Karla Sofa Gascn, and Zoe Saldana, winners of the Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy award for Emilia Prez.  Photographer: Amy Sussman/Getty Images

What to watch

• November building approvals, 11.30 a.m.

One more thing...

It feels like everywhere you look, people are talking about AI. OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman sat down with Bloomberg Businessweek for a wide-ranging interview, discussing the first two years at ChatGPT in depth. Altman explains his infamous four-day firing, how he runs OpenAI, his plans for the Trump-Musk presidency and his pursuit of artificial general intelligence.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman  Photographer: Chona Kasinger/Bloomberg
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