| Donald Trump has threatened a lot of tariffs for many different purposes. And as he demonstrated Sunday when he announced, and then backed away from, 25% tariffs on Colombia for pushing back against US treatment of deportees, he's willing to use them for non-economic reasons. But with Trump and tariffs — or anything else, really — it's worth paying attention to actual actions more than the social media posts. And Trump's first week in office had a lot of threats and very little action on tariffs. Which makes this Saturday and the days leading up to it the biggest test yet of Trump's tariff credibility and how he will actually wield import taxes in this second term. QuickTake: What Trump Mass Deportation Plan Means for Immigrants Trump late on his first day in office offered that he was thinking about imposing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico on Feb. 1. The next day he added that a 10% tariff on China was in the mix as well. Those pronouncements were at odds with the very executive action he signed on that first day, which called for a series of reports to be delivered by April 1 that could lead to tariffs for all sorts of reasons. Nothing is ever definitive in Trump's Washington. But all that means we will get a clue this week whether his spoken words matter more than his written directives. And whether his tariff threats are, as financial markets seem to believe, opening shots in negotiations with no immediate economic impact. Or whether those levies are weapons the president of the world's largest economy is willing to fire regardless of the economic consequences. Renewed Uncertainty The lack of answers is a great reminder that in Trump's first term, it was the uncertainty over his trade policies that caused plenty of economic damage. We are back in a land in which CEOs, investors and even Federal Reserve policymakers meeting this week are trying to make decisions that could be derailed by one man's social media posts, or not. The consequences of whether Trump delivers on his Feb. 1 threats are enormous. In the first 11 months of 2024, the combined value of total US trade with Canada ($699 billion), China ($532 billion) and Mexico ($776 billion) was worth almost $2 trillion. By comparison, total trade with Colombia, was worth $33.5 billion over that time. What action we get by Saturday on any of those relationships is unclear. As is how fast tariffs will actually be imposed if Trump gives the nod. In theory, tariffs could be imposed immediately with a few taps on a customs keyboard. In the past, though, procedures have called for importers to get some fair warning of a looming action or up to 90 days notice. Or at least a message from Customs authorities rather than a presidential post. Deal Struck This past weekend doesn't offer clarity. After Trump announced a swathe of tariffs and sanctions against Colombia, the White House late on Sunday announced that a deal had been struck. There is a lot that could affect what happens by Saturday starting with what financial markets do. Last week's warm welcome from investors to Trump was due in no small part to the belief that he was at the very least being methodical in his pursuit of tariffs. Read More: Trump's Second Week Will Test His Influence Over Congress There could be offers from Ottawa, Mexico City and Beijing that make it easy for Trump to hold fire, as he did in May 2019 after similar threats against Mexico. CEOs facing significant supply chain disruptions could get on the phone to Washington to make a point about the potential costs to the US economy and jobs. Perhaps some of the Republican tariff skeptics left in the US Congress will find a way to make a point. One way or the other, a week from now we will know more than we do now. Though just how far that will go to predicting longer term US policy is, of course, itself uncertain. Because when it comes to tariffs and economic warfare, we live in a world where the boy who cries wolf is uniquely also the wolf of the moment. —Shawn Donnan in Washington Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping. | 
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