Supply Lines: China’s record exports

China exported a record amount of goods last year, swelling its trade surplus to almost $1 trillion and underscoring how global commerce rem

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China exported a record amount of goods last year, swelling its trade surplus to almost $1 trillion and underscoring how global commerce remains unbalanced despite government protectionism and efforts by companies to diversify their supplier bases. US importers trying to buy as much from China as they can before Donald Trump returns to the White House are driving part of the trade gap, with exports to the US in December rising to the highest in two years and taking the total for the year to $525 billion. The Chinese surplus with the 10 countries in Asean also jumped to a record, with part of that likely driven by exports of parts for electronics, to be assembled in Vietnam and then shipped to the US and elsewhere.  Read More: China Vows 'Very Proactive' Fiscal Policy Before Trump's Return But the strength of demand for Chinese products is global — exports last year to Indonesia and Brazil grew by double digits, while shipments to France and Germany climbed more than 6%, buoyed by exports of millions of electric vehicles and other products. However, Chinese demand for the world's products didn't grow anywhere nearly as fast, with imports only expanding 1.1% last year, well below the 5.9% rise in exports. A big question now is whether China's efforts to boost the domestic economy can boost that demand for foreign goods, or will the world's second-biggest economy continue to rely on the rest of the world to make up for its weak economy and lackluster consumer demand. Another unknown: Whether Trump — who enters office one week from today — will use the latest figures from Beijing as more justification for one of his most consequential campaign promises of the 2024 election: imposing universal tariffs on China as a way to correct imbalances in the global trading system and boost job growth at home. Related Reading:  White House Unveils New Curbs on Exporting Nvidia AI Chips China Boosts Consumer Subsidies, Vows More Funding to Aid Demand Trump's Tariff Threats Set Off a Global Supply Chain 'Freakout'  —James Mayger in Beijing Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Land grab | Trump's obsession with Greenland has put the world's largest island in an unexpected position of power. While Trump's 2019 bid for the Arctic territory was dismissed as little more than a joke, the president-elect's timing is better this time around — Greenlanders are intensifying their push for independence from Denmark. Within the next three months, they will hold a general election that will take the temperature of that relationship.

Today's Must Reads

Trump's tariff threats are already driving up longer-term borrowing costs around the world, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. Canada is drawing up plans for extensive tariffs against US products if Trump follows through on his threat to put 25% levies on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the country is ready to retaliate if provoked. Separately, top Canadian economists have a response to America's trade imbalance with this northern neighbor: It's all because America wants cheap oil. The European Union is set to warn that the integration of the bloc's single market is slowing down at the same time it's facing more pressure from major global economies including the US and China. The UK's trade in goods is set to grow by an average of just 0.7% a year in the decade from 2023, well behind the global average of 2.9%, according to a report published Monday by Boston Consulting Group. Meanwhile, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves visited China over the weekend.  Several members of Mexico's central bank expressed concern about the inflationary impact of US tariffs. Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum vowed her country would not be subordinated by its northern neighbor. In this Talking Transports podcast, Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley's managing director and lead North American freight transportation and airlines analyst, shares insights about what could be in store this earnings season and how freight demand could shape up in 2025. Watch Nobel economist Paul Krugman make the case for how Trump's tariffs could backfire on the US economy. Separately, a top executive at Jeep-owner Stellantis said some key production decisions are on hold while the automaker awaits clarity on Trump's policies.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

Iron ore could take a knock if the incoming Trump administration imposes across-the-board trade tariffs that hurt global growth and undermine steel demand, according to Goldman Sachs. Taiwan will support the move of supply chains of information, communications and technology, and that of the auto industry, to the US, Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Jyh-huei says at briefing in Taipei. Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers. Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows. See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints.  For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains. On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content. See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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