Friday, January 24, 2025

Drugs inflame Trump-Petro ties

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Colombia is witnessing a humanitarian catastrophe as tens of thousands of people flee the country's east to escape a resurgence of guerrilla violence.

It's a setback for President Gustavo Petro's plans for lasting peace, and threatens to become another irritant in his relations with the US.

As one of Latin America's leading leftist leaders, Petro is already on the wrong side of President Donald Trump's administration. He's courted China and slammed Israel over the death toll inflicted in its war with Hamas.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio branded him a "Hamas supporter." Petro called Rubio "an expression of the most backward sectors of American politics."

The irony is that Colombia has historically been one of Washington's biggest allies in Latin America, a major recipient of US aid and military assistance.

Those close ties are at risk as a result of the fallout from fighting that started last week when guerrillas from the Marxist ELN group went door to door with death lists in a bid to seize total control of Catatumbo, a mountainous cocaine-producing region near the Venezuelan border.

Petro had sought "total peace" via negotiations with armed groups whose main source of funding is illegal drugs. The unravelling of his plans comes as Colombian cocaine production keeps breaking records: the area of land planted with coca leaf — the raw material for the narcotic — rose 10% last year.

None of which will have escaped Washington as Trump makes a priority of stopping fentanyl from entering the US.

Colombia could potentially face decertification as a partner in the war on drugs, putting it in the same rogue category as Nicolás Maduro's Venezuela — even if the effect would be more reputational than financial.

Either way, with a cocaine glut and out-of-control narco violence, relations between Petro and Trump are set to rapidly go south.— Patricia Laya and Matthew Bristow

Displaced residents wait to cross the Tarra River, which divides Colombia and Venezuela, on Jan. 19. Photographer: Schneyder Mendoza/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Trump sought to dial up pressure on President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a deal to end Russia's war on Ukraine by indicating he's looking to partner with China to try to reach a settlement. Meanwhile, European officials are seeking commitments from the new US administration to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine by contributing troops to any future peacekeeping forces.

LISTEN: On the latest Trumponomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders unpacks Trump's transactionalism across the global economy and trade policy with Bloomberg News Editor-in Chief John Micklethwait, reporter Jenny Leonard and Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Brad Stone. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Claudia Sheinbaum's efforts to blunt Trump's relentless targeting of Mexico are winning admirers in Brazil. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's advisers are considering mimicking her restrained demeanor toward the combative US leader as a model for how their often-pugnacious boss should approach him, sources say.

When Turkey's navy welcomed two new frigates to its fleet this month, officials left no doubt about the scale of their mission — or its geopolitical ambition. The ships are the latest product of a naval expansion drive that will give Ankara added clout into and beyond the Mediterranean, Aegean and Black seas, and diversify a booming domestic defense industry better known for its drones.

The Turkish Navy's IZMIT Milgem I-Class frigate. Source: STM

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba sought to rally support for his minority government at the opening of parliament today to help him pass a record ¥115.5 trillion ($740 billion) annual budget. Since ceding seats in October's election, Ishiba's coalition has been forced to negotiate with smaller opposition parties to try to get bills approved.

Trump said he'd rather not have to impose tariffs on China, his latest dovish remarks toward the government in Beijing even as he continues to threaten sweeping action. He has raised the prospect of slapping 10% duties on the Asian nation's goods as soon as Feb. 1 for allegedly channeling large quantities of fentanyl into the US.

WATCH: Has Trump gotten soft on China? Bloomberg's Allen Wan breaks it down.

The prime minister of Tibet's government-in-exile, Penpa Tsering, said he would welcome any harsh economic measures against China by Trump, adding that the only way to bring Beijing to its "knees" is to "give them less business."

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said a second term in office would see him "building Australia's future" by bolstering education, manufacturing and health care as polls show dwindling enthusiasm among voters for his center-left government.

French officials are calling for a simplification of the European regulatory framework, starting with environmental, social and governance rules, to address the bloc's flailing global competitiveness.

Britain's retailers face having to cut more jobs, drive harder bargains with labor unions and stagger pay increases to absorb the shock tax increases in the government's revenue-raising budget that kick in this year.

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Chart of the Day

Trump's decision to once again categorize the Houthi militant group in Yemen as a terrorist organization marks "the beginning of their end," according to Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the vice president of the gulf country's United Nations-recognized government. The decision will further boost the US' "momentum in the region" at a time when Iran "has become toothless," he said.

And Finally

Saudi Arabia has almost doubled poultry production in the past decade as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pushes for food self-sufficiency in one of the hottest, driest places on Earth. The kingdom imports about 80% of what it eats, triggering worries about shortages in a time of rising geopolitical tensions, contagious animal diseases and stressed supply chains. It has committed more than $1 trillion to its Vision 2030 strategy to diversify the economy away from oil by nurturing industries such as tourism, automobiles and semiconductors, earmarking $4.5 billion for poultry alone.

Saudi company Tanmiah processes about 150,000 birds daily in Shaqra for fast-food outlets and supermarkets. Photographer: Maya Anwar/Bloomberg

Pop quiz (no cheating!). Which nation has offered to work with the Trump administration to take back its nationals living in the US illegally? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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