Brussels Edition: Dash for gas

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Shortages in Europe are

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Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union. Shortages in Europe are set to precipitate a global scramble for gas — and poorer countries in Asia and South America risk being priced out. For the first time since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis, Europe might fall short of its storage targets for next winter, setting the stage for a worldwide fight over supplies before new liquefied natural gas capacity starts to ease the situation in 2026. Europe's gas inventories have been dwindling because of a bout of cold weather and a supply squeeze after Russia ceased pipeline deliveries through Ukraine on New Year's Day. To make up the gap, Europe will need to import as much as an extra 10 million tons per year of LNG — about 10% more than in 2024. US President-elect Donald Trump meanwhile has threatened tariffs if Europe doesn't buy more American energy supplies.  — Gian Volpicelli

What's Happening

Trump Effect | Germany's conservative Christian Democrats are nervous that Donald Trump's return to the White House could complicate their march to a resounding election victory over Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Even with a comfortable lead in the polls, advisers for CDU leader Friedrich Merz are looking anxiously at Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration as an event that could shift the election calculus by casting Scholz as a defender of democracy, we're told.  Croatian Victory | Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, a populist leader who has denounced NATO expansion and military aid to Ukraine, was on course to secure a second term with a resounding victory, exit polls showed. The former Social Democratic leader, 58, took 77.9% in the second round of presidential voting on Sunday.  Flying Home | Iran said a citizen arrested by Italy at the request of the US was returned home, capping a month-long diplomatic tussle between Rome, Washington and Tehran. Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi's detention was the result of a "misunderstanding" and resolved through negotiations between Iranian and Italian intelligence services, Iran's judiciary said. He'd been linked to that of Italian reporter Cecilia Sala, who was freed from prison in Tehran last week.   Foreign Fighters | Ukraine is ready to return captured North Korean soldiers if leader Kim Jong Un can facilitate an exchange for Ukrainian soldiers being held in Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Ukraine has said it captured two North Koreans fighting for the Kremlin in Russia's Kursk region. Zelenskiy said this is likely just the beginning, as Ukrainian forces are expected to capture more over time.

Around Europe

Smart Defense | Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said joint borrowing by EU members shouldn't be ruled out if funds are used to defend the bloc's eastern flank. Money raised could be used "to build up defenses, provided the money is used where Europe is defended," Orpo said on Saturday. It's a surprising reversal in a country usually opposed to pooling obligations. Right-Wing Demo | Thousands of Romanians took to the streets on Sunday in a demonstration organized by the largest far-right opposition party against the decision to cancel a presidential election last month because of suspicions of Russian interference. More than 10,000 people marched on the streets of Bucharest against the current ruling coalition, the Constitutional Court and outgoing President Klaus Iohannis. It's the second protest organized by the nationalist forces in the past week.  Zuck Zigzags | Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said he trusts the incoming Trump administration to stand up to EU attempts to fine US companies. Talking to podcaster Joe Rogan in an interview in which he lamented the rise of "culturally neutered" companies that lack "masculine energy," Zuckerberg also upbraided the Biden administration for not protecting tech firms from other countries' enforcement. "The US government should be defending its companies, not be at the tip of the spear attacking its companies," Zuckerberg said.  Dutch Malaise |  A top Dutch university and talent reservoir for chip machine maker ASML shut down its computer network on Sunday following a cyber attack. Eindhoven University of Technology announced there would be no activities at least until Tuesday as experts investigate the attack. Officials noticed "a lot of suspicious activity" on the institution's servers on Saturday, and there's been no contact with the hackers whose identity isn't yet known, said the university's spokesman Ivo Jongsma.

Chart of the Day

As Germany phases out fossil fuels, blue-collar workers are worried about whether their jobs are safe as employers struggle to compete with rivals from the US and China. The far-right AfD — in second place in polls behind the conservative CDU-CSU bloc — is exploiting fears in industrial and mining hubs, which will bear the brunt of Germany's net-zero ambitions and where the party's call to abandon international climate agreements resonates with locals. Meanwhile, Germany is about to report a second-straight year of economic contraction.

Today's Agenda

All times CET 4 p.m. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte holds an exchange with European Parliament committees. EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas meets Austrian interim Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos meets Belgian Foreign Minister Bernard Quintin.

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