Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Beijing’s Musk-TikTok dance

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.

Elon Musk's political shadow is expanding rapidly from the US to Europe — and now China.

Beijing's sizing-up of Musk as a potential buyer for TikTok's US business if a controversial American ban on the video app goes ahead shows the newfound power he wields in US-China ties.

Chinese officials still prefer TikTok remains under the ownership of parent ByteDance, but if a US Supreme Court appeal fails, they consider a takeover by Musk to be the next best thing, sources say.

There's no indication the Tesla and SpaceX CEO is keen on acquiring the app, having already splashed out $44 billion on Twitter in 2022. And handing the platform to one of Donald Trump's closest allies might seem, at first blush, like a loss for Beijing.

WATCH: Annabelle Droulers reports on the TikTok latest on Bloomberg Television.

But Musk's business ties with China — Tesla makes half of all its EVs there — plus his backing of President Xi Jinping's territorial claims over Taiwan have won him favor with the Communist Party.

The TikTok episode shows Beijing considers the incoming US president's top political donor a friendly force, positioning Musk as a critical interlocutor when the world's largest economies inevitably sit down for trade-war talks in the coming months.

That's a rare boon for Beijing. 

Trump's new administration is stacked with outright China hawks such as incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio and men like nominated Treasury chief Scott Bessent, who believes Xi at least deserves some gradual tariffs.

Of course matters could change. Tesla is an obvious target for Beijing to strike in retaliation against any US penalties, or if it wants to pressure Musk to influence Trump. Musk — the planet's richest person — is famously mercurial.

One thing looks certain: Becoming TikTok's savior would be yet another ego boost for an outspoken billionaire already set to pull strings in the world's most-important diplomatic relationship. — Jenni Marsh

Elon Musk. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Trump's economic team is discussing slowly ramping up tariffs, rather than an aggressive approach, to help boost US negotiating leverage and avoid a spike in inflation, sources say. Canada's ambassador in Washington warned that the incoming president's plans will lead to "tit-for-tat" retaliation.

The US levies duties on Canadian softwood lumber. Photographer: James MacDonald/Bloomberg

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will speak in Parliament today for the first time since concern over Britain's debt pile and economic outlook roiled financial markets, one of several potential flash points for the Labour leadership this week. Her statement about a recent trip to China allows opposition lawmakers to quiz her on a sharp rise in gilt yields that risks leaving her in breach of her own fiscal rules.

Ukraine's European allies have become cautiously optimistic that Trump won't force Kyiv into premature negotiations with Russia. This follows a series of private talks with members of Trump's team in which the transatlantic partners have made the case for continued support for Ukraine, sources say.

A Ukranian power plant damaged by Russian missile attacks on Nov 28. Photographer: Olga Ivashchenko/Bloomberg

Spain wants non-European Union residents to pay as much as 100% tax for home purchases to tackle a domestic housing crisis, a move that could affect buyers from the UK and Latin America in particular. Spain's extensive Mediterranean coastline is a popular destination for foreigners seeking a holiday residence, leading to higher real-estate prices at a time of housing shortages.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a plan to reduce imports from China in a bid to support local industry and align the country with the US and Canada as trade partners. Mexico will offer incentives for nearshoring, including tax deductions, and develop plans for individual sectors for how to increase the local content of goods.

Tractor trailers wait in line on the US-Mexico border in Juarez on Dec. 20. Photographer: David Peinado/Bloomberg

Greenland's prime minister said he will seek a closer relationship with the US, highlighting the Arctic island's push for independence amid renewed interest from Trump.

Germany is giving its armed forces the ability to shoot down unidentified drones suspected of spying on military bases, industrial facilities and other critical infrastructure, sources say.

South Korea started and then adjourned a trial today to decide if President Yoon Suk Yeol will be permanently removed from office over his botched martial law declaration.

Lebanon named diplomat Nawaf Salam, a former United Nations envoy and current head of the International Court of Justice, as its prime minister with the task of forming a new government.

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Chart of the Day

Vietnam overtook Japan as China's third-largest export destination for the first time, driven by a surge in shipments of parts which are then assembled and sold on elsewhere. The rerouting of trade risks raising costs for businesses and consumers but has benefited Vietnam, which has seen a surge of investment as companies look to diversify supply chains from China.

And Finally

India is hosting a once-in-a-decade religious event over the next six weeks that gives Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party a fresh opportunity to promote its Hindu nationalist agenda among hundreds of millions of pilgrims. Billed as the world's largest human gathering, the Kumbh Mela on the banks of the Ganges River in northern India attracts Hindu devotees and tourists, rich and poor, political leaders and celebrities and local reports suggest it could draw as many as 400 million people.

Hindu pilgrims during the Maha Kumbh Mela festival. Photographer: Niharika Kulkarni/AFP

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