Monday, December 2, 2024

War reignites in Syria

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.A lightning advance by opposition

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.

A lightning advance by opposition fighters in Syria in the past week has President Bashar al-Assad calling for help.

Only, his main backers Russia and Iran are distracted with their own conflicts.

That left the path open for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a breakaway faction of al-Qaeda, to capture the city of Aleppo over the weekend. The rebels are now headed toward another major goal, Hama, with the ultimate aim of reaching the capital, Damascus.

Syria, whose war began in 2011 with an outpouring of anger at Assad during the Arab Spring uprisings, had been relatively quiet following the October 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, which set off deep turmoil in the Middle East. Now, it's adding to the regional upheaval.

The question is whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will step in to help Assad as he has done in the past. The Syrian leader reportedly flew to Moscow to ask for support from Russia, which has been carrying out air strikes against the rebels.

But Putin's invasion of Ukraine is consuming Russian resources. Iran finds itself weakened by Israel's attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Syrian National Army soldiers yesterday. Photographer: Huseyin Nasir/Anadolu/Getty Images

The Syrian flare-up draws in Turkey — perhaps by design. The sudden escalation came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced plans to create a safe zone along the border with Syria and push away Kurdish forces it has long battled there.

There are also implications for how the US and its allies tackle remnants of the Islamic State group in Syria; the US sees Kurdish fighters as critical to preventing its resurgence.

Washington's future stance is another wildcard.

In his first term, Donald Trump pulled some US troops out of northern Syria, endangering US allies and creating a vacuum that Turkey was happy to fill.

Next month it will again become Trump's problem

Anti-government fighters in Syria's northwestern Idlib province on Saturday. Photographer: Abdulaziz Ketaz/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Hours after French Finance Minister Antoine Armand said his administration wouldn't be blackmailed, the far-right National Rally indicated in the strongest language yet that it could topple the government as soon as this week. Marine Le Pen and her party have threatened to support a no-confidence motion unless Prime Minister Michel Barnier changes next year's budget, demanding the alterations be made by today.

WATCH: Armand tells Bloomberg TV's Caroline Connan that the government won't accept artificial deadlines from Le Pen over its budget bill.

US President Joe Biden signed a sweeping pardon for his son, saying that the case against Hunter Biden was politically tinged and designed to "break" both of them. It marked a stunning reversal of his previous stance that he would not use executive powers to aid his oldest-living child, and came just weeks before he is set to make way for Trump.

The Chinese Communist Party's elite decision-making body led by President Xi Jinping skipped releasing a readout for its regular November meeting, leaving investors hungry for signs of stimulus waiting for the conclusion of two major economic huddles this month. While specific numbers settled on won't be publicized until the annual parliament session in March, traders are betting Beijing will unlock more forceful measures to bolster growth.

Romania's ruling Social Democrats were on course to win a parliamentary election despite gains by a nationalist group that had threatened to deliver a blow to the Black Sea nation's political establishment. The outcome will bring some political relief for the NATO member after a nationalist candidate secured a shock victory in the first round of the presidential ballot.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will spell out a set of targets for the economy, health care and crime over the coming week as he seeks to reset his fledgling administration following a turbulent return to power for the Labour Party. Starmer is seeking to turn the page on a rocky start beset by revelations about ministers accepting free gifts while in opposition and unpopular tax and spending decisions by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves that alienated pensioners, farmers and businesses.

On the first visit to Africa by a sitting US president in almost a decade starting today, Biden will endorse a 1,100-mile railway that ships copper concentrate from the Democratic Republic of Congo to the Angolan port of Lobito and is aimed at countering Chinese influence in the region.

Ireland's dominant political parties appear to have bucked the trend of frustrated voters ousting incumbents, helped in part by a tax bonanza, with current coalition partners Fianna Fail and Fine Gael looking almost certain to form the next government following Friday's election.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces another test of his leadership as the main opposition party vies to control the annual budget, an outcome that would cast further doubt on his ability to enact policy as the nation braces for Trump's return.

An impeachment complaint was filed against Philippines Vice President Sara Duterte at the House of Representatives today, alleging she violated her constitutional oath and engaged in gross misconduct.

Washington Dispatch

Even before Biden's pardon of his son, Washington was confronted by another contentious Trump nomination as lawmakers returned from the Thanksgiving holiday.

Trump announced that he wants Kash Patel, who had various roles in his first administration, to be the next director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Kash Patel. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

Patel's star in the right-wing firmament ascended when he condemned the FBI's investigation into whether Trump's campaign conspired with Russia to interfere in the 2016 presidential election. If confirmed, he would replace Christopher Wray, who himself was selected by Trump and has a few years left in his term.

Trump has long claimed that the bureau, and its parent, the Justice Department, carried out politically motivated inquiries against him and his allies and has demanded an overhaul of both organizations.

One thing to watch today: November's ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index is expected to show conditions in the sector continued to deteriorate last month, albeit at a slower pace.

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Chart of the Day

For businesses in Norway, illness is becoming an increasingly trying problem. Workers take more sick days than anywhere else in Europe and absences are at the highest in 15 years. Critics blame an overly generous welfare system, but lavish benefits are far from the only cause and the situation is worsening across Europe. Aging workforces and more awareness of stress and mental health, particularly among younger generations, have been blamed, as have repercussions from the Covid pandemic.

And Finally

Bloomberg Economics has gamed out a potential path from Trump's rhetoric on trade tariffs to policy reality. Shaped by conversations with officials who helped deliver his first-term trade policies and an assessment of the political and economic realities, it's intended to help stakeholders in the $30 trillion global trading system navigate the turbulence. Part of the challenge: separating the drama of Trump's free-wheeling public statements — like his currency-rattling tariff threats to Mexico, Canada and China last week and a fresh warning to the BRICS economies on Saturday — from the slower-moving processes by which tariffs are designed and enacted.

Thanks to the 28 people who correctly answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Gabriel Sivzattian, who was the first to name Pakistan as the country where the government ordered the army to shoot on sight after clashes between police and demonstrators demanding the release of a former premier from jail.

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