Friday, November 1, 2024

Waiting for AI to kick in

Bloomberg Morning Briefing Americas

Good morning. Apple's earnings underwhelm but Amazon comes in strong. We look at how money (lots of it) influences the US political system. And time to dive into our annual survey of global wine regions. Listen to the day's top stories.

Apple disappointed investors with a tepid sales forecast and lingering concerns about the intensely competitive China market as the company heads into its most critical sales period of the year. Traders have been betting that Apple Intelligence—its new suite of AI features—will help fuel demand for devices. The quarter was brighter for Amazon, which reported strong results as cost-cutting and investments in technology infrastructure put it on firmer footing. Intel sparked optimism that it's capable of reclaiming some lost market share after the chipmaker's earnings outperformed. Still, Intel and Samsung have shed a total of $227 billion in market value this year on their lack of leadership in AI.

Boeing and union leaders reached a tentative agreement to end a lengthy labor dispute that's throttled the company's aircraft production. The agreement would boost wages by 38% over four years and give workers a $12,000 signing bonus if approved. Bloomberg Opinion's Thomas Black says strikers should accept the latest offer. Across the Pacific, Japan's largest brokerage firm Nomura reported profit that beat estimates, despite recent scandals including a spoofing case and an attempted murder arrest.

Markets will be focused on the US jobs report today, although the numbers may not significantly impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, with a quarter-point cut still expected at the November policy meeting. Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.1% despite temporary hiring disruptions from storms and strikes. Meanwhile, Canada's West Coast ports are bracing for strike action on Monday. The shutdown would include operations in Vancouver, the country's busiest port.
 

Residential buildings in Qingdao, China. Photographer: Raul Ariano/Bloomberg

In Chinahome sales saw their first monthly rise this year in October as the government's latest stimulus blitz brought back buyers. There were more signs that the economy has stabilized somewhat as last month's factory activity exceeded analyst expectations. China is bracing for a potential Trump victory and higher tariffs on its goods, which Goldman Sachs economists say could dent growth and prompt Beijing to step up fiscal support. And don't miss this story on the growing deterioration in people-to-people ties between the US and China.

Oil jumped following a report that Iran may be preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, jolting the market's attention back to a potential flare-up of Middle East hostilities. Closer to home, US oil production jumped to a fresh monthly record in August, in what is likely to make OPEC's decision on whether to return supplies to the market more complicated. 

Deep Dive: Political Influence

Photographer: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg

The US political system runs on money–and lots of it—with no legal limits on how much money can go into electing candidates. Plus we have the latest on the race.

  • As Republicans and Democrats battle to influence a deeply divided electorate, 11,000 political groups spent $14.7 billion to influence the 2024 election.
  • Donald Trump's political operation raised more money from wealthy donors than grassroots contributors for the first time in his three White House bids. Still, it's Kamala Harris who has the huge money advantage. 
  • Trump sued CBS, alleging it engaged in election interference by airing two different versions of an interview with Harris. He's seeking $10 billion in damages.
  • LeBron James endorsed Harris and rebuked Trump's inflammatory rhetoric on race. "When I think about my kids and my family and how they will grow up, the choice is clear to me. VOTE KAMALA HARRIS!!!," James wrote in a post on X.

The Big Take

Opinion

Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg

The Magnificent 7 can no longer evade AI earnings expectations, John Authers and Richard Abbey write. Investors are showing that tolerance for big spending on the tech without immediate signs of a return is waning.

Before You Go

Wine grapes during the harvest at a vineyard in Orvieto, Italy. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

Wineries' make-or-break moment is here as growers survey the final grape result of the year's weather. Standouts continue to be Napa, Sonoma, Oregon, parts of Italy and the Douro in Portugal. Burgundy had its most stressful vintage in 50 years as the region faced more rain and less sunshine.

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