Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Trump's return to the White House

What you need to know today.

Good morning, it's Georgie here in Sydney. Donald Trump has won the presidential election and his victory is reverberating across global markets...

Today's must-reads:
• Trump victorious 
• How the election result is roiling markets
• NAB profit meets expectations

What's happening now

Donald Trump is on his way back to the White House, in one of the most stunning comebacks in American history. Kamala Harris has called Trump to offer congratulations and spoke at her alma mater Howard University this morning Sydney time. Meanwhile, Democrats' hopes for a powerful check on Trump by controlling the US House are fading, with Republicans increasingly confident they will hold unified control in Washington. For all of the live updates, follow our blog here.

US Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to speak at Howard University in Washington, DC. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

Central bankers the world over are gauging whether their worst fears over Trump will come to pass. He's promised levies on US imports that would upend global trade, tax cuts that would further stretch the federal budget and deportations that could shrink the pool of cheap labor. That poses two main risks: Slower economic expansion around the world and faster inflation at home that would make the Federal Reserve less willing to lower interest rates. The win also renews questions about how fiercely he might pressure the Fed.

NAB's profit was in line with analyst expectations, supported by strength in its flagship business lending unit. Despite headwinds, Australia's economy is in reasonable shape and the lender is optimistic about the outlook for Australia.

What happened overnight

Trump's victory reverberated across global markets in different ways: The S&P 500 hit a record high, bond yields jumped and the dollar was set for its best day since 2020. Other winners include Tesla, Goldman, Citi and JPMorgan. The losers: Gold and silver, the Mexican peso and Eastern European currencies. Asian equity futures are mixed. Asian bonds and the yen are among the assets that are likely to continue to be impacted by the outcome, analysts said.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wednesday. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

Here's what Bloomberg Opinion writers are saying about that shock Trump win: The president-elect has no philosophy or policy, and his incoherence on global relations is not feigned, writes Andreas Kluth. Trump's European allies are defenseless against his "America First" world view, writes Lionel Laurent. A cost-of-living backlash shaped the presidential election, writes Jonathan Levin. But voters will be disappointed when they find out interest rates on home loans and big-ticket items won't be coming down. And the greenest president in US history will be succeeded by his anti-green predecessor, writes Liam Denning.

In other news, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a confidence vote on Jan. 15 and said he wants a snap election by the end of March. The move came after the chancellor dismissed his Finance Minister Christian Lindner, stripping the three-party alliance of its parliamentary majority.

Saudi Arabia is planning a new AI project with backing of as much as $100 billion as it seeks to develop a technological hub to rival the neighboring United Arab Emirates, people familiar with the matter said.  The state-backed entity will invest in data centers, startups and other infrastructure to develop artificial intelligence, the people said.

And shares in Qualcomm, the world's biggest seller of smartphone processors, jumped as it gave a bullish sales forecast for the current period, pointing to bright spots in the mobile device industry.

What to watch

• 9:00 a.m: RBA Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent appear before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee.
• 11:30 a.m: September monthly trade data 

One more thing...

Two Black women, Angela Alsobrooks and Lisa Blunt Rochester, have won US Senate seats representing Maryland and Delaware, breaking another barrier in a 235-year-old institution long dominated by White men. Only 12 Black people have served in the Senate, and only three of them have been women. Never before have two Black women been seated at the same time.

Angela Alsobrooks Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

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