Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Trump’s resounding win

Trump's win was surprisingly easy

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. Readers of the Washington Edition newsletter are also receiving this special edition on the US election.

In the end, the surprise was just how resounding a win it was for Donald Trump, who staged one of the most remarkable political comebacks in American history.

Democrats will need to draw lessons from the seismic scale of their defeat. Latinos and disaffected young men will hold the key to this dramatic sea change.

The rest of the world is better prepared for Trump 2.0, but that will be of little comfort if you're Ukraine, fighting North Korean troops just across Russia's border. The fear that Trump will force Volodymyr Zelenskiy to capitulate to Vladimir Putin is real.

WATCH: Trump addresses supporters at his election watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida. Source: Bloomberg

For Europe, the need to prop up its own defenses and take on more responsibility within the NATO military alliance becomes more urgent. The Franco-German axis that taped the European Union together is broken. Emmanuel Macron is weakened, Olaf Scholz's coalition is on the verge of collapse.

Hungary's Viktor Orban, who has positioned himself as Trump's man in Europe and has a power of veto in NATO, is gloating. In the Middle East, Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu may feel he has a freer hand to press on militarily against Hamas and Hezbollah.

China will be bracing itself for a trade war with Trump expected to follow through on his threat to jack up tariffs. And as leaders rush to curry favor with the famously mercurial Trump, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer can look forward to a very un-special relationship with the US given how he's already in Trump's bad books.

A burning question is just what kind of role Elon Musk will play in the new administration and what kind of unfettered access the world's richest man will have to the levers of power. As Trump put it: "A star is born." 

Supporters react as Fox News projects Trump is elected president. Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images  

Global Must Reads

Tens of thousands of Israelis took to the streets in protest over Netanyahu's dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a move many commentators criticized at a time of heightened military tensions with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Gallant said he was fired because of his advice to compromise over the war with Hamas to recover hostages and his demand for the conscription of religious young men.

WATCH: Israelis protest in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem following Netanyahu's firing of Gallant. Source: Associated Press

Scholz will host a meeting of top officials in his quarrelsome ruling coalition this evening in Berlin that could determine whether his government can see out its four-year term. The two main issues of contention that have pushed the three-party alliance close to collapse are how to plug a shortfall of about €8 billion ($8.7 billion) in the 2025 federal budget and what additional measures are needed to lift the economy out of a prolonged slump. Trump's victory could focus their minds.

After months of relative silence, Chinese state media derided the US presidential election as a "money burning" display of "unprecedented chaos." China, a one-party state now under the indefinite rule of Xi Jinping, has long been critical of the American system, which the Communist Party-controlled media once called the "rule of the few over the many." But this time around, an even harder line is emerging than in previous years.

Mozambique's defense minister warned of preparations by unspecified people to try to seize power after the southern African nation's disputed Oct. 9 election, as neighboring South Africa closed a key metals-trade route because of violent protests at the border. Opposition presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane has called for demonstrators to march on the capital, Maputo, tomorrow.

Mexico's Supreme Court dismissed a ruling intended to limit the scope of a judicial overhaul passed by Congress, easing concerns of a standoff with President Claudia Sheinbaum that risked sparking a constitutional crisis. The US and foreign investors have criticized the changes, which include the election of judges, saying they will put Mexican democracy at risk by damaging the judiciary's independence and limiting checks and balances.

Russia's upper house of parliament ratified a mutual defense pact with North Korea, amid US and European alarm over Pyongyang's support for Putin's war on Ukraine.

Myanmar's ethnic groups fighting to oust the junta criticized China for hosting military chief Min Aung Hlaing in the country this week and said India has reached out for talks with the shadow government and some armed rebels.

US conservative groups significantly increased spending in Africa as countries such as Uganda, Kenya and Ghana attempted to introduce legislation targeting LGBTQ people.

Washington Dispatch

The Democrats' hope for power in Washington hinges on the outcome of a handful of fiercely competitive House races. 

The party needs a net gain of just four House seats to wrest the slim majority from Republicans. But with several key races still too close to call — particularly in notoriously slow-counting California — it could be days before it's clear which party has the majority. 

There's reason for optimism for House Democrats, who picked up at least two seats in New York and who gained a seat each in Alabama and Louisiana, thanks to redistricting.

But at least one loss in Pennsylvania, another in Michigan and failure to pick up some other competitive East Coast and Midwest seats make the race for the House a true toss-up.

One thing to watch today: The Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting with expectations of another cut in its benchmark interest rate tomorrow.

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Chart of the Day

The US is producing more oil than any other country in history, and further increases are planned next year and beyond. The rising tide of American oil cuts against authoritative projections by the International Energy Agency and other analysts who conclude no new fossil fuel fields should be built if the world wants to hit net zero in the next 25 years.

And Finally

The world's No. 1 cobalt miner is sounding the alarm over the rapidly shrinking role of the metal in the energy transition. The reason is the adoption of cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate, or LFP, batteries gaining momentum in recent years because they are cheaper to manufacture. Chinese company CMOC's bearish view of the market comes amid a glut of the metal that's been largely created by its expansion of two huge copper-cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

A general view of the Tenke Fungurume Mine in southeastern Congo in June 2023. Photographer: Emmet Livingstone/AFP/Getty Images

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