Sunday, November 10, 2024

Treasurer warns of economic pain from Trump Win

Good morning and welcome back, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to start your working week.Today's must-reads:• Economic pain fr

Good morning and welcome back, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to start your working week.

Today's must-reads:
• Economic pain from Trump win, treasurer warns
• Resolute Mining CEO, executives held in Mali
• ANZ slashes CEO's bonus after scandals

What's happening now

Australia faces the threat of short-term economic pain in the form of reduced output and further inflation pressures as a result of incoming President Donald Trump's policy agenda, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers. "We wouldn't be immune from escalating trade tensions that might ensue," Chalmers will say in a speech tonight.

Resolute Mining CEO Terry Holohan has been detained by the military-controlled government of Mali in West Africa, the Perth-based gold mining company said. Holohan and two other company executives had traveled to Bamako to hold discussions with local mining and tax authorities but were "unexpectedly detained" after the meetings on Friday.

ANZ cut CEO Shayne Elliott's bonus by nearly half after a series of scandals in the lender's markets division, with the veteran banker saying his tenure is getting "clearly closer to the end." Elliott's bonus for fiscal year 2024 was cut by A$1.1 million. Elliott's short-term variable remuneration almost halved to A$1.3 million from A$2.4 million the previous financial year. 

Australia will push ahead with a ban on social media for people aged under 16 despite calls by Meta for it to consider shifting responsibility for policing usage to app store operators such as Google and Apple. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced Friday that all state and territory leaders had signed on to the plan for age restrictions.

Hospital operator Healthscope received a covenant waiver from lenders on a A$1.6 billion loan to give the firm more time to negotiate higher reimbursements from health insurers, according to people familiar.  The waiver will help pre-empt any possible breach of the loan agreement as Healthscope, owned by Brookfield Asset Management, grapples with lower earnings.

What happened overnight

For investors who plowed into stocks last week on speculation that Donald Trump's policies will bolster the economy, the challenge is to figure out which sectors will get a lasting boost. Tariffs, for example, could spark inflation and hurt large multinational firms, while potentially helping domestically oriented small-cap stocks. However, an immigration crackdown risks lifting labor costs, likely squeezing smaller businesses. 

The bond-market selloff unleashed by Trump's presidential victory last week ended almost as quickly as it began. Yet firms like BlackRock, JPMorgan and TCW Group have issued a steady drumbeat of warnings that the bumpy ride is likely far from over.

Bitcoin rallied past $80,000 for the first time on Sunday, boosted by Trump's embrace of digital assets and the prospect of a Congress featuring pro-crypto lawmakers.

For many countries the prospect of Trump's return is less disconcerting than one might imagine, writes Mihir Sharma in Bloomberg Opinion. From India to Turkey to Indonesia, they are confident they will manage just fine — and perhaps even benefit more from their relationship with the US than they did under President Joe Biden.

Foreign companies pulled more money from China last quarter, a sign that some investors are still pessimistic even as Beijing rolls out stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing growth.

What to watch

• Incitec Pivot earnings

One more thing...

The opening of Trump's second term will be unlike any US government transition the world has seen in the modern era: It promises to combine the sharp policy break of a new presidency with an incumbent's mastery of the levers of power. The Republican emerged from Tuesday's election in a stronger position than even many allies anticipated and prepared to move swiftly on core economic priorities such as raising tariffs, cutting taxes and cracking down on undocumented migrants.

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