Monday, November 4, 2024

The London Rush: Delays at the gate

Ryanair cuts next year's passenger outlook.

Morning, I'm Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today's top business stories.

Ryanair's dependence on Boeing has been laid bare this morning. Ongoing woes at the US planemaker, which is dealing with striking workers and production quality issues, are hitting the airline's operations.

The Irish carrier could be short of 10 aircraft for next year's peak summer season, its finance chief told Bloomberg TV. That means Ryanair now expects to carry 210 million passengers in the next financial year, rather than the 215 million previously. 

 Neil Sorahan, chief financial officer of Ryanair, chatted to Bloomberg TV. Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

CFO Neil Sorahan said the outlook is "highly dependent on Boeing ending the strike sooner rather than later and production ramping up relatively quickly." A pay deal to boost workers wages has been endorsed by union leaders and will go to a vote later today.

Shares fell nearly 2% in early trading.

As it stands, forward bookings are "strong" and ticket price weakness is moderating, a sure relief for the airline after a period of (even) lower fares cutting into profits. 

So — it just needs to make sure demand stays up, consumer spending pressures abate, interest rates come down and Boeing doesn't delay deliveries too much more. Then, after all that, it'll finally be cleared for take off …

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We're Watching

Anglo American agreed to sell its minority stake in an Australian coal miner for about £813 million.

Burberry shares popped nearly 8% after online fashion site Miss Tweed said Moncler could be considering a bid for the company, citing industry chatter.

Plus, Labour may have settled many pay disputes with a striking public sector, but the Treasury has now toughened its position. It says above-inflation pay rises will only be offered if they can be funded by improvements to productivity.

Global Catch Up

Markets Today: Big Week Ahead

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

There are three major risk events for markets this week that could reverberate through UK assets.

The Bank of England's meeting on Thursday will have the most direct influence, coming after the volatility in gilt markets in the wake of the budget. Bets on cuts by the BOE pared back, so the outlook from policymakers will be key for domestic UK assets.

In addition to that, the US election takes place on Tuesday and will feed through into markets on Wednesday. It's on a knife-edge and weighing on the dollar this morning.

And that will be followed on Thursday by the Federal Reserve, which will announce its latest policy decision after markets have closed in the UK. As ever, that will have an impact across assets globally.

Without question, London Rush readers, a big and important week ahead that could set the tone for some time to come.

Sam Unsted

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

What's Next

Eyes will be on ASOS's progress in clearing inventory and restoring full-price sales when the fashion retailer reports full year results.

Gross margin needs to improve to compensate for the loss of up to £20 million of Topshop Ebitda, which has cast doubt on the outlook for 2025.

Quick Coffee With: James Hennebry

James Hennebry is the CEO of Rosslyn Coffee, a collection of five specialty coffee shops in the City. The Irishman co-founded the business in 2018 with Mat Russell, his Australian business partner. We met at the Royal Exchange branch.

Photographer: Louise Moon/Bloomberg

What made you pick your job? My father had Irish pubs in the Netherlands, so I grew up working there and in his pubs in Ireland. I got into coffee in Melbourne, and spent a bit of time in Sydney where three great bars changed what the city was for me. I thought what an incredible thing that is to do. Coming back to London, I really wanted to contribute in a meaningful way — look at the great stall holders in Brixton, or the shirtmakers in Jermyn Street. And coffee fuels the City, literally towers and towers of people.

What do you most want to achieve in your career? To contribute to London — to have a tangible effect, in a positive way. If coffee in London is better in 2024 than it was in 2018, and we've contributed to that in some small way, then that is something to be proud of.

How do you save time? By building a really strong team. And also by identifying the 80-20 principle.

Where do you go for a working lunch? Caravan. I used to be the head of wholesale there.

What book do you most recommend? Setting The Table by Daniel Meyer. He's arguably New York's greatest restaurateur, probably more famous now for being behind Shake Shack. It's the fundamentals of hospitality.

Top podcast recommendation? An Irish sports podcast called Second Captains.

Who's your dream dinner party guest? I went to a talk with the head of the CIA and the head of MI5, so security was insane. I would love to get them into a room and ask what's actually going on.

At the start of my career, I wish someone had told me… Enjoy the process. Just be very mindful of now — this could be the good old days that we talk about in times to come. And have the understanding that 100% of effort versus 70% of effort, doesn't give you 30% more results. Force yourself to have at least a day off a week.

Pub Quiz

Kemi Badenoch beat Robert Jenrick to become the new leader of the Conservatives over the weekend. What degree did Badenoch study — an approach she has repeatedly said she would bring to government?

Photographer: Stefan Rousseau/PA

[Friday's answer: GB News has been fined £100,000 by the regulator for breaching impartiality rules. They're appealing the decision.]

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