Thursday, November 7, 2024

The German problem

Germany's ruling coalition is on the rocks

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Life comes at you fast these days, especially in Berlin.

First Donald Trump won the US election vowing to upend the global trade order that is the bedrock of Germany's economy. Then Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired the finance minister, effectively collapsing his three-way coalition.

It's not a stretch to see cause and effect: Scholz — who openly backed Kamala Harris — cited Trump's victory in his statement late yesterday, arguing that the Republican's return to the White House made it imperative to release the brakes on spending that his minister held tight for party political, ideological reasons.

With now ex-Finance Minister Christian Lindner's Free Democrats ejected from the coalition, Scholz aims to stagger on until an early election in March — though the opposition wants it brought forward to January.

Either way, Europe now has a Germany-sized hole in its collective response to the multiple challenges on its doorstep, to which can be added the uncertainty that Trump will bring on issues from tariffs to aid for Ukraine.

European Union leaders will have plenty to chew over when they convene in Budapest today for a summit hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a Russia-friendly Trump acolyte who will doubtless use the opportunity to gloat.

It's a dismal prospect for the dwindling band of liberal leaders at the table, Scholz among them.

The Social Democrat's government has been on the rocks for months now, and polls show voters want change.

Still, Scholz, his remaining Greens coalition partner, and the main opposition conservative alliance led by Friedrich Merz all favor support for German business to bolster waning competitiveness, additional spending on defense and more help for Ukraine.

Trump's looming return makes all these measures more urgent, for Europe as much as for Germany.

Whether that's enough of a spur to unity looks unlikely. 

WATCH: Bloomberg's Chad Thomas reports on the unfolding political crisis. Source: Bloomberg

Global Must Reads

Winners and losers has become almost a mantra for Trump. The transactional nature of his first presidency showed how he ranked leaders based on their perceived strengths and weaknesses — and his personal taste. How everyone fits into his orbit this time will come down to how many ingratiate themselves and what kind of relationships they already had. This report looks at who will be pegged as a friend or foe in Trump world.

Support for Ukraine's defense in the months ahead will shape the future of the EU, Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said in a Bloomberg Television interview. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who's under growing pressure as Russia's army accelerates its advance in eastern Ukraine, said he had an "excellent" phone call with Trump.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's axing of Yoav Gallant as defense minister could help hold together Israel's most right-wing government ever until the next election set for 2026. It may also allow him to continue pursuing "total victory" against Hamas and defying pressure from the White House, Europeans and Arab states to accept a deal for a cease-fire in Gaza and release of the roughly 100 hostages held by the Iran-backed militant group.

A Palestinian boy sits on the rubble of the Maghazi Camp Services Club in Gaza following an Israeli strike on Oct. 24. Photographer: Eyad Baba/AFP/Getty Images

Chinese President Xi Jinping is better prepared for an intensified trade war that Trump first started in 2018. The US president-elect's threat to put tariffs of as much as 60% on Chinese goods will decimate trade between the world's biggest economies, according to Bloomberg Economics. That's on top of a range of export controls on advanced technology that the Joe Biden administration imposed since Trump left office in 2021.

Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris called an early general election for Nov. 29 as he seeks to take advantage of favorable poll numbers and a slump in support for Sinn Fein, the main opposition party that is mired in a series of scandals. The announcement by the 38-year-old — Ireland's youngest ever premier — follows a giveaway budget in October that was seen as an effort to win over voters.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged to support Myanmar's government during a rare sitdown with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, a sign Beijing is seeking to stabilize a regime losing ground in a worsening civil conflict.

Mozambican opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, whose supporters have shaken the southeast African nation with protests over last month's disputed election, abandoned plans to return today for a march.

Saudi Arabia is planning a new artificial intelligence project with the backing of as much as $100 billion as it seeks to develop a technological hub to rival the neighboring United Arab Emirates, sources say.

Australia is banning children under the age of 16 from engaging with social media as part of a push to protect young people's mental health, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

Washington Dispatch

In her first public remarks since the election, Vice President Kamala Harris told supporters to accept her loss but urged them to keep fighting for the ideals she espoused in her campaign.

"I know folks are feeling and experiencing a range of emotions right now. I get it. But we must accept the results of this election," Harris said yesterday at Howard University in Washington. She also said she called Trump and promised the administration would ensure a peaceful transfer of power.

A supporter reacts as Harris concedes the election.   Photographer: Brandon Bell/Getty Images 

The Democrats' hopes for a powerful check on Trump by controlling the US House are fading, with Republicans increasingly confident they will hold unified control in Washington ahead of next year's big fights over tax cuts and spending.

One thing to watch: The special counsel overseeing the federal criminal cases against Trump is preparing to drop the prosecutions of the president-elect before he is sworn in, a Justice Department official said.

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Chart of the Day

This year will be the hottest on record and the first to exceed the target set at the Paris climate conference in 2015, according to an EU data service. The temperature will likely be more than 1.55C above the pre-industrial level, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said today. The landmark Paris Agreement called for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the hope of limiting global warming to 2C (3.6F), and ideally 1.5C.

And Finally

The world's 10 richest people did very nicely out of Trump's win, with their fortunes surging by a daily record. The net worth of billionaires led by Tesla's Elon Musk, who actively backed the president-elect, surged by $63.5 billion yesterday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Musk alone added $26.5 billion to his pot. It's the biggest daily increase since the wealth index began in 2012. Much of the gains for the ultra-rich come down to a surge in US stocks, underscoring bets that Trump will implement an agenda favoring lower taxes and less regulation.

Trump's wife, Melania, and Musk during a campaign event in New York on Oct. 27. Photographer: Adam Gray/Bloomberg

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